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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

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Old 04-13-2018, 09:32 AM   #1
Mitch44
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Ark.Derby Gr. 1

1 1/8 ARK. Derby GR 1
PP # 1 Beautiful Shot; has failed in last two extending distance & up in class. Today again extends dis. & steps up in class. Just can’t see it even through a 3 yr. old is subject to dramatic improvement. Also doesn’tship well or handle different tracks. A GR 1 horse can do all these things. Toss.



PP # 2 Machismo; Throw out last race as it had trouble and then jock rushed him and took him out of his normal running style and ran too fast early, change of jockey today. Prior to last his previous two were verygood and the horse was improving with his next to last being best. Trainer record not all that great but has handled this horse well. Due to record his true ability hasn’t been determined yet and could be anything. Must prove added dis. and class jump, hmm? two things not good. Expect improvement, an unknown factor whose odds will justify the risk. Much to prove against this field and I’ll take a stand against as we have to make decisions. At M/L 20-1 odds should goup and he may make for a big gimmick underneath such as a Tri.



PP # 3 Tenfold; Has done no wrong winning 2 for 2 and over todays track, last up in class and today takes another class jump, Rates and dis. not a problem and class to be determined. Trainer very capable. One big knock is he didn’t run as a 2 yr. old and may not have the foundation while being pushed to make Derby. M/L 10-1, with trainer odds could go either way but should go up if lower not worth the risk. A good horse that has done all asked of it.Not a toss but for me I want better odds for the risk against more seasoned horses and proven better class horses. An unknownfactor.



PP # 4 Dream Baby Dream; Next to last race a toss as he steadied and it was an off track. Trainer capable and horse has shown improvement and signs of being something. He added blinkers in last, placed him up in class with added dis. while shipping the horse to a track that didn’t fit running style. Ran his best race yet and perhaps needed blinkers on all along so record may not be what it appears to be. Has run 9F and proven capable. He answered all those questions and today gets another test on a more favorable track for style. 2nd start w/ blinkers on and could be anything. M/L 15-1 and should go up, not a throw out but an unknown factor.



PP # 5 Solomini; as a 2 yr. old that was beaten by a couple proven Gr 1 types. Only I race this year and had to steady in that, should improve. May have peaked as a 2 yr. old and then again might improve as a 3 yr.old. Capable trainer, horse rates with correct % Med and style. Ability as a 3year old not disclosed yet so another unknown factor withvery poor odds. Odds more a reflection of trainer than proven ability as a 3yr. old. To me not worth the risk in his field.



PP # 6 Magnum Moon; has won 3 for 3 and won over todays track while increasing distance and class. Top at this point remains unknown.Capable trainer with correct % Med and style. Steps up again against better andmust prove class again with very low odds. Only real knock is he didn’t run asa 2 yr. old and if being pushed for Derby may throw in the towel. Still an unknown quantity that has done all asked of so far against weaker. Top ability still unknown. Class question not being rewarded for odds with a M/L of 8/5.



PP # 7 Plainsman; has correct style and % Med. with last being best. A 3 yr. old is expected to improve but this one is taken a huge step up in class and his best is low velocity with late deceleration while going longer. Tossing this one.



PP # 8 Quip; has won 3 of 4 and only lost had a troubled race. % Med. and style good and has been climbing the class ladder. Only start as a 3 yr. old is his best and top ability remains unknown till race is over. Has been handled well and wasn’t rushed into BC as a 2 yr. old. Fits with these and could be anything. Only 9/2 for step up.



PP # 9 Combatant; this is a very hard charging horse with very consistent speed rating while going up in class and distance. His last was his best. So why hasn’t he won? I believe the reason is he is a grinder and an even pace type horse that will get better as the distance increases and needs more distance to be effective. Needs a clean trip and a real fast pace to be really effective. Odds not great today and would like to see a prep for the TC races.If makes to the Triple Crown may surprise at a big price in those races. While trainer is capable I would think ahead for the classics and use this as a prep.The extra 1/16 will help but the Triple Crown distances will be much better for this one. Trainer has 3 horses in this and none are a throw out.



I really don’t like this race as it’s fraught with too many unknown factors. Calls for reduced wager and fun bet at best or just watch. Let them answer these unknowns and we’ll have a much better idea going forward into the Derby.
Contenders: 2-3-4-5-6-8-9 too many.



Final SWAG (scientific wild ass guess) order 5-8-9-2-3-4



For risk verses reward I’ll place a small wager with the long odds horses of 2-3-4-and go for an upset EX with them on top of the 5-8-9. A $ 9 fun bet and enjoy the race. If I was playing a DD or P# 3 would go with 5-8-9 but probably no overlay there although I haven't looked at the preceding race or one after . Would have to have a good price horse in one of those.



Save the house,
Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 04-13-2018 at 09:47 AM.
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Old 04-13-2018, 01:54 PM   #2
Bill V.
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Awesome

Very nice work up Mitch

I hope all your skills shine for you. You can use those pools
like a master.

Thanks for getting us pumped up for the Ark. Derby

Bill
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Old 04-13-2018, 04:26 PM   #3
Lt1
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Nice work Mitch.
Tim
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Old 04-13-2018, 08:15 PM   #4
Mr.Pagine
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Great Work Mitch

8 days until Woodbine & only 22 until The Derby!!

Happy Punting,
Jon
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Old 04-13-2018, 11:19 PM   #5
lone speed
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Mitch- Great In-Depth Race Analysis!!!

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Old 04-14-2018, 01:17 AM   #6
Mitch44
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Thanks everyone and thanks lone speed for posting PP's. I'm not sure how to that with them open ,like you display them lobe speed. Perhaps as an attachment.


Again thanks everyone,


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Old 04-14-2018, 08:52 PM   #7
lone speed
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Result Chart

Todd Pletcher and his Derby Contigent are all ready......

They let Magnum Moon "walked the dog" for the early fractions. Magnum Moon's final 3 furlongs was an incredibly fast 36.40 after a super slow 4 Furlongs and 6 Furlongs pace...I posted the Oaklawn Handicap chart to compare...


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Old 04-15-2018, 05:12 AM   #8
Mitch44
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I agree lone speed, they got sucked into a slow pace and when he took off he got the jump on the field and he was gone.

The # 8 stayed with him the best and the # 9 ran his normal race. The added distance in the TC races will help the # 9 going forward and with the right match up will also aid his style.

It'll be a very competitive Derby this year.

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