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Old 12-24-2011, 12:41 PM   #1
shoeless
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Paceline selection is important but

I know paceline selection is very important but how do you know when
a horse will start to tail off.I know this has been booted around many times
in the past and I guess if someone knew the answer they would be raking
in the cash.

Here is a horse today from Parx in the 5th race 5000 claimer,take a look at his last 3
Bris Spd numbers which are impressive.Will this horse repeat today?
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Old 12-24-2011, 02:08 PM   #2
Ted Craven
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My guess is he has as much a chance as anyone (and a better chance than the #6). His last was too fast a pace for it (by far the fastest PoR it has faced), and it will not face this today from the other E/EP. I chose to rank it off its line 3.

Let's see in a few moments ...

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Old 12-24-2011, 03:43 PM   #3
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Sometimes pace doesn't tell us everything. In this case, the horse stayed boxed in through much of the race. The jockey probably cost this horse, which finished 4th, at least one position. Had this horse been ready, the trainer would have probably gone with a more experienced jockey.
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Old 12-24-2011, 03:51 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shoeless View Post
I know paceline selection is very important but how do you know when
a horse will start to tail off.I know this has been booted around many times
in the past and I guess if someone knew the answer they would be raking
in the cash.

Here is a horse today from Parx in the 5th race 5000 claimer,take a look at his last 3
Bris Spd numbers which are impressive.Will this horse repeat today?
BRIS labels this horse as an "E8", which is to say by the Quirin point system, this is an early horse, however, in today's race is is NOT. Why not?

I have attached your screen shot with some additions.
If you look at the last three races, which are the three races the Quirin speed points are based on, they are at 7f, 6.5f and 7f. I have highlighted these three races in red.
Now look at the previous sprint races that I have highlighted in blue.
You don't see that same early speed do you?

For this reason, I would say today is the day where the horse will go "off form" so to speak. I really don't think the horse IS off form, I just don't think it will duplicate either of its' last three races, since today's distance is 6f.
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Old 12-24-2011, 05:04 PM   #5
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Ted,

Thanks for putting up the RDDS screenshot.I didnt like the 2 here who was a big dropdown but did just get nosed out by the 8 who I didnt like at all.The 8 though was getting a lot of early play at one point was at 5-1.


FTL,

Very interesting what you circled but really dont get the E8 designation
as in 3 of his 4 wins the horse didnt have the lead at the 1st call.
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Old 12-24-2011, 05:58 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shoeless View Post
Ted,

Thanks for putting up the RDDS screenshot.I didnt like the 2 here who was a big dropdown but did just get nosed out by the 8 who I didnt like at all.The 8 though was getting a lot of early play at one point was at 5-1.


FTL,

Very interesting what you circled but really dont get the E8 designation
as in 3 of his 4 wins the horse didnt have the lead at the 1st call.
I don't want to say that the horse's wins have nothing to do with it, because to some extent they do. I'll explain.

If you are not familiar with the Quirin Point System, a horse gets 3 points if it is on the lead at the first call, 2 points if it is second at the first call and 1 point if it is 3rd at the first call. Therefore, this horse gets 3 points for its' last race + 2 points for its' race 2 back + 3 points for its' race 3 back for a total of 8 points. This is how BRIS calculates early horses and therefore the designation they show is "E8", to the right of the horse's name.

As to my point, all horses do not run the same style even within "similar"
distances.
Not all horses run on the lead in all sprints.
Some will and some won't.
Some horses will run on the lead at 7f, but will "press" at 6f.
There are many examples, this is just one.
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Old 12-25-2011, 11:01 AM   #7
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FTL,

Thanks for the clarification.

I didnt use this horse as I felt it was ready to bounce and I didnt like the
2 horse who was even money and a big dropdown.I used the 6 and 7 who
at this point are still running.
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Old 12-25-2011, 11:06 AM   #8
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Here is the horse that was bet down to the favorite,he lost the race by a nose.

I guess the obvious question would be do you consider this horse to
be a contender
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Old 12-25-2011, 01:52 PM   #9
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Drop

Hi Jeff I'm not that familiar with the man made class structure
at PARX but to me this looks like a dump of a horse with tremendous heart but maybe serious issues. Its been winning or just missing for $47000 purses but needing more that 30 day rest each time ever since the off race line 4
Now it could be that non claiming races don't come around that often
but then again when they do at Parx they seem to be short fields
So If the horse was ready to run why so many long rest starting after the
poor race # 4 It gives its all but then needs a rest maybe what ever
is wrong is getting worse Contender yes but a bet no

This is a open 5000 claimer with a $27000 purse
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Old 12-25-2011, 02:42 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shoeless View Post
Here is the horse that was bet down to the favorite,he lost the race by a nose.

I guess the obvious question would be do you consider this horse to
be a contender
Let's just take a look at the horse in Bill V's post. It's just easier to read.

It's obvious that his horse would be considered a contender, but with A LOT of reservation. As I see it, there are only 2 reasons for a horse like this to be dropping down this much in class;
1 - there is something wrong with the horse and they are hoping someone will claim it, OR
2 - there is nothing wrong with the horse and they are hoping no one will claim it and they will get the horse "qualified" for future "starter allowance" races (like Rapid Redux)

For me, my guidelines are clear. This horse has one race in the last 90 days, so it is the only race I will consider. In that race, the horse did not run 1st, 2nd or 3rd. It was not 1st or 2nd at the first and/or second calls. It did not make a "middle move" to be within 2 lengths of the leader, therefore I would not give it a line and it would become a non-contender for me. This does not mean I would be oblivious to the horses' presence in the race. This is the kind of race I would probably PASS with the thought being "why do I want to get involved? Is it worth being involved?" The only answer is, sure it is worth it IF this drop down loses and I have the winner at a nice price. That is a big IF and I'm sure if I look long and hard enough, I will find a better race with less risk that presents a better opportunity for investment.
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