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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

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Old 03-10-2016, 06:59 AM   #21
Bill V.
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Finding the fucrum POR

This is a video I made for the RDSS2 forum in 2013. In this video I use the same fulcrum guidelines, I look for the fastest 2nd call POR from the last line only.
But rather than look at the adjusted EPR rating on the TPR screen,
I use the raw pace of race fractions

Here is the video
Fulcrum.mp4

Last edited by Bill V.; 03-10-2016 at 07:02 AM.
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Old 03-10-2016, 03:28 PM   #22
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Yes Bill post one ,your choice. Then many more can get involved. The feedback should be good and diverse.
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Old 08-08-2016, 05:21 PM   #23
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Thumbs up Thanks, Bill.

Bill - this is a favorite thread. It's such a rich vein of ore to mine. You put a lot of work in it and I wanted you to know it's appreciated.

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Old 08-16-2016, 02:22 PM   #24
Tim Y
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Horses running in the fastest paced races have endured the greatest pace pressures. USE THAT as your guide:If others show faltering from that pace of race, they will not be a choice today.

Use SEVERAl lines to find the comparisons, don't get stuck in sample error. The better horses REPEAT their efforts and there-by can be counted on more readily.

Last edited by Tim Y; 08-16-2016 at 02:24 PM.
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Old 08-16-2016, 02:34 PM   #25
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SAMPLE ERROR: drawing an incorrect conclusion from too small a data set. Or, the plague of small numbers. That is a denigrating expression of Bernoulli's theory of LARGE NUMBERS, (actually used in insurance actuarials to predict probably of death by age and lifestyle) aka the MORE examples one investigates, the closer those observations are to the reality of the situation.

Read The Drunkard's Walk, a great primer on the foibles of statistical evaluation .....it is eye opening.

Imagine I am from Mars and want to invade Earth. The rational way to scout the target would be to send MULTIPLE probes or groups, all around the planet, and multiple times of the year, to get an idea what they were going to encounter.

I am a dummy so I send ONE expedition and it happens to land in a nice meadow in June in rural Minnesota where I see open land and small animals.

Between these two groups, WHICH would you say probably had the better reconnaissance? and which WILL suffer the effects of Sample Error.
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Old 08-18-2016, 09:08 AM   #26
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The Drunkard's Walk

Thank, Tim. I always appreciate a recommendation on a good book. I've ordered it from our local library. And thanks again for the press box tour. It was special.

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Old 09-28-2016, 09:47 PM   #27
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Follow Up #16, pages 3-4, Doc talks about the procedural template for the trackside clinics they were doing at the time.

Also, on page 34, an article that goes into greater depth.
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Old 12-07-2016, 08:26 PM   #28
Tim Y
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This is a concept that is more theoretical than real.

One needs to find COMMONALITY of pace of race challenges for ir is EXTREMELY DOUBTFUL that any ONE pace line will have all the aspects (early, middle and late) that will serve as a yardstick for all in the race.

The more I study this (and since 1986 I have looked a more than a few contests) I came to a conclusion: all horses have a RANGE of pace of races TO WHICH they can contend. What we call "cheap" animals have the narrowest range of challenge response, all the way up to the stakes winners who have the widest (to give truth to the old saying that CLASS laughs at pace).

Find a few pace lines that are real challenges at this level: put them in the program and find the PACE OF RACES that are the toughest of those listed. You start there. Line up the other horses in the race (ALWAYS LOOK AT ALL OF THEM INITIALLY), see how they match up.

the idea of ONE fulcrum just is not a long range practical standard to attempt to discover. A range is about as close as you can find.
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Old 06-05-2018, 08:56 PM   #29
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I know this thread is a few yrs old but I'd like to chime in about the hefts of Doc's work.

actually,
doc said two members of Pirco stole his mailing list. Not long after, I got a flyer with both Pizzolla's and Schmidt's names on it, so not hard to figure out who Doc was talking about,
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Old 06-07-2018, 12:33 AM   #30
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Lefty

I wanted to do a follow up race, using the fulcrum method.
I don't usually bet Woodbine till latter in the season.
Mitch posted his selections today in the selections forum, so I was following along.

Race 1 2 and 3 had no fulcrum horses .
Race 4 was a MC10 .I had a tandem race fulcrum with horses 1 , 2 and 9,

The POR fulcrum was a 87 but horse 3 will boost that POR up in this match up

Remember: The fulcrum is a very strong elimination tool.
Its a paceline selection aid.
The fulcrum horse places or shows a very high percentage
I look at the fulcrum as kind of like a mini dashboard of the match up.

Here is my work up of race 4

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