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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

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Old 07-02-2016, 10:13 PM   #1
kpmats10
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Adjusting times for Sprint to Route

I don't know if this is in the right forum, but wondering if someone can answer a question I have in the Pace Makes the Race book about calculating stretchouts.

I'm interested in the method outlined where you take the route par time and divide it by the par sprint time, then take the race fractions and multiply them by the product of the par time divisions to get the new estimated route time.

My question is if you utilize this method, do you make adjustments to beaten lengths?
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Old 07-03-2016, 10:53 AM   #2
Bill V.
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I would say yes

I would think so because in the second method outlined in the book
They figure a track "par" for sprints and a par for routes
Lets say the sprint EPR at your track is 92 and the route par EPR is 86

To do the conversion for sprint to route you would figure the sprint EPR and then take off 6 points to get a route EPR

To figure the pars and the epr ratings you need to add beaten lengths
so I would say yes
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Old 07-03-2016, 11:38 AM   #3
kpmats10
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How would you adjust the beaten lengths of a paceline, Bill?
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Old 07-03-2016, 09:47 PM   #4
Hoof 11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kpmats10 View Post
How would you adjust the beaten lengths of a paceline, Bill?
Most races use .15, .16, or .17. Here is an example:

Winner: 1:12.00
2nd: 1:12.40
3rd: 1:12.64

It doesn't matter if the 2/3 finishers were gaining late or stopping badly, the calculation is the same.

2nd: 1:12.40 - 1:12.00 = 0.40 / 0.16 = 2.5 BL
3rd: 1:12.64 - 1:12.00 = 0.64 / 0.16 = 4.0 BL

http://216.92.33.211/forum/showthrea...2&page=1&pp=15

Read CJ's posts.
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Old 07-03-2016, 10:53 PM   #5
kpmats10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoof 11 View Post
Most races use .15, .16, or .17. Here is an example:

Winner: 1:12.00
2nd: 1:12.40
3rd: 1:12.64

It doesn't matter if the 2/3 finishers were gaining late or stopping badly, the calculation is the same.

2nd: 1:12.40 - 1:12.00 = 0.40 / 0.16 = 2.5 BL
3rd: 1:12.64 - 1:12.00 = 0.64 / 0.16 = 4.0 BL

http://216.92.33.211/forum/showthrea...2&page=1&pp=15

Read CJ's posts.
What I'm referring to is when adjusting a sprint race paceline to a route, by using the formula I posted above, would you make any adjustments to the beaten lengths on the sprint paceline?
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Old 07-04-2016, 08:12 PM   #6
Bill V.
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Pmtr

Quote:
Originally Posted by kpmats10 View Post
What I'm referring to is when adjusting a sprint race paceline to a route, by using the formula I posted above, would you make any adjustments to the beaten lengths on the sprint paceline?
I am mixed up about your question

In both methods from Pace Makes The Race - The Original hard bound copy anyway,

The EPR rating is adjusted as normal
Once you have established the Raw EPR then you add the multiplier or the difference from a par sprint EPR to a par route EPR. from sprint to route or route to sprint. The construction of the EPR is not adjusted.
The method for caluclating the EPR is always the same.

In the example from the book on page 167
The horse is Key To Charisma a sprinter, The race is 1 mile from Hollywood Park. Key To Charisma only shows sprint pacelines.

The line they used was line 2 a 6 furlang race from Turf Paradise
6 furlong 21.3 44 109.3 BL 6.75 8.5 6.5 8

Here is what they wrote,

" Key To Charisma ... The second line is at six furlongs over a normal track
( 15 variant ) one claiming level up from today's $10000. This line should be reasonably
predictive of what we can expect of this horse today.
To calculate EPR, we will use the second call time of 44 flat, On the EPR chart,
this is a rating of 100. We subtract 8.5 points for the 8.5 beaten lengths giving us a raw rating of 91.5"

So they naturally use the beaten legnths to establish the raw EPR .

They then make the adjustments for Varient, Class, and Track to Track

The final readouts for Key To Charisma are.

Raw 91.5 EPR 82.5 LPR Var -1 Track to Track -9 appling 65% to the EPR and 35%
to the LPR gets these final readouts
Adjusted 85 79 Total 164

So now to use either method of going from sprint to route or route to speint
from page 58-59
You already have the adjusted EPR numbers so you don't use the beaten lengths again .

Thanks
Bill
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