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03-18-2018, 09:51 PM | #1 |
Happy Punting
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Toronto, Ontario
Posts: 480
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The Internet for Replays
Folks,
The Internet - I am sure that you are already doing this, however, if you are not, you need to start. Watching replays of the races for the contenders in these 3yr old stakes races is a huge plus, and I highly recommend that you all do it. "Justify" - go watch his 2 races, and it will blow you away. His last race, he was barely used, and Smith did not move the entire race. Happy Punting! Jon |
03-19-2018, 01:14 AM | #2 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Handicapping from Result Chart or Video Replays
Hi John
The problem I have with result chart and video replays are. As the methodology teaches us, It not how fast a horse runs, Its how well it runs against the pace of the race it ran against. I watched Justify's SA race as it happened, he looked so much bigger and developed against his competition that day. It seemed effortless. So in a result chart, and watching the video, he looks unbeatable The problem is the next time he runs, How do we know how he will run against a new matchup and against what pace of race? The methodology programs have always been about picking pacelines We need to know "how will the horse run today" and how will it do against today's matchup and pace of race. Bill |
03-19-2018, 04:02 AM | #3 |
Happy Punting
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Toronto, Ontario
Posts: 480
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Valid Points
Bill V,
Your points are valid; however, for me, the 3yr old horse is a question mark, as they are still growing and developing, and any added reference point is a huge plus for me. If the video tells me that the horse has a lot left in the tank, it merely adds confidence to my top 2 BL selection. Happy Punting, Jon |
03-19-2018, 10:35 AM | #4 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
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Quote:
I believe that charts and replays do have their place in our study of this game. They often provide answers to the unknown, or confirm/overrule what we think we know. While I get what you are saying about the Methodology and selecting the comparable paceline to predict how a horse will run in today's pace matchup, there are many instances where the Methodology simply won't provide definitive answers to our questions, and we need to use other tools to confirm/overrule a horse's ability in this matchup. |
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03-19-2018, 10:52 AM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,038
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I'm not into replays myself mainly because if the horse had visible trouble everyone else including the chart caller saw it. After that the viewer sees, on a subjective basis, what he/she believes to be something the effected the horses performance. There are more solid ways to justify moving a horse up or down the tier levels rather then subjective calls by any of us.
Tim
__________________
Trust but verify |
03-19-2018, 11:18 AM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
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Article
I had this hanging around, and felt it to be of value to the conversation. Basically hits home the point that sometimes the obvious comments in the Form are not enough and it takes one's visual perception to ultimately determine whether a bad trip shows any merit beyond the scope of the PPs.
https://thetournamentedge.net/NEW/seeing-is-believing/ |
03-19-2018, 11:26 AM | #7 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
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Quote:
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03-19-2018, 05:20 PM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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I'm not into watching replays but I can see where it could have value as to how a horse won.
As a player you can't help but notice things in a race you played that a chart caller doesn't comment on. When that happens put it in your stable. And play it back or even if it was a contender you didn't bet. Mitch44 |
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