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Old 03-18-2018, 09:51 PM   #1
Mr.Pagine
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The Internet for Replays

Folks,

The Internet - I am sure that you are already doing this, however, if you are not, you need to start.

Watching replays of the races for the contenders in these 3yr old stakes races is a huge plus, and I highly recommend that you all do it.

"Justify" - go watch his 2 races, and it will blow you away. His last race, he was barely used, and Smith did not move the entire race.

Happy Punting!
Jon
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Old 03-19-2018, 01:14 AM   #2
Bill V.
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Handicapping from Result Chart or Video Replays

Hi John

The problem I have with result chart and video replays are. As the methodology teaches us, It not how fast a horse runs,
Its how well it runs against the pace of the race it ran against.

I watched Justify's SA race as it happened, he looked so much bigger and
developed against his competition that day. It seemed effortless.

So in a result chart, and watching the video, he looks unbeatable
The problem is the next time he runs, How do we know how he will
run against a new matchup and against what pace of race?

The methodology programs have always been about picking pacelines
We need to know "how will the horse run today"
and how will it do against today's matchup and pace of race.

Bill
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Old 03-19-2018, 04:02 AM   #3
Mr.Pagine
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Valid Points

Bill V,

Your points are valid; however, for me, the 3yr old horse is a question mark, as they are still growing and developing, and any added reference point is a huge plus for me.

If the video tells me that the horse has a lot left in the tank, it merely adds confidence to my top 2 BL selection.

Happy Punting,
Jon
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Old 03-19-2018, 10:35 AM   #4
Jeebs
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill V. View Post
Hi John

The problem I have with result chart and video replays are. As the methodology teaches us, It not how fast a horse runs,
Its how well it runs against the pace of the race it ran against.

I watched Justify's SA race as it happened, he looked so much bigger and
developed against his competition that day. It seemed effortless.

So in a result chart, and watching the video, he looks unbeatable
The problem is the next time he runs, How do we know how he will
run against a new matchup and against what pace of race?

The methodology programs have always been about picking pacelines
We need to know "how will the horse run today"
and how will it do against today's matchup and pace of race.

Bill
Hi Bill,

I believe that charts and replays do have their place in our study of this game. They often provide answers to the unknown, or confirm/overrule what we think we know. While I get what you are saying about the Methodology and selecting the comparable paceline to predict how a horse will run in today's pace matchup, there are many instances where the Methodology simply won't provide definitive answers to our questions, and we need to use other tools to confirm/overrule a horse's ability in this matchup.
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Old 03-19-2018, 10:52 AM   #5
Lt1
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I'm not into replays myself mainly because if the horse had visible trouble everyone else including the chart caller saw it. After that the viewer sees, on a subjective basis, what he/she believes to be something the effected the horses performance. There are more solid ways to justify moving a horse up or down the tier levels rather then subjective calls by any of us.
Tim
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Old 03-19-2018, 11:18 AM   #6
Jeebs
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Article

I had this hanging around, and felt it to be of value to the conversation. Basically hits home the point that sometimes the obvious comments in the Form are not enough and it takes one's visual perception to ultimately determine whether a bad trip shows any merit beyond the scope of the PPs.

https://thetournamentedge.net/NEW/seeing-is-believing/
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Old 03-19-2018, 11:26 AM   #7
Jeebs
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lt1 View Post
I'm not into replays myself mainly because if the horse had visible trouble everyone else including the chart caller saw it. After that the viewer sees, on a subjective basis, what he/she believes to be something the effected the horses performance. There are more solid ways to justify moving a horse up or down the tier levels rather then subjective calls by any of us.
Tim
All methods/systems of handicapping have their limitations. Sartinian handicapping requires the user to select a paceline on a horse to build a projection of today's matchup. Some races simply go beyond this type of analysis, usually due to the presence of unknown factors. Jockey/Trainer stats can move a horse up or down the tiers, as well as certain aspects of class, but the bottom line is that the horse runs the race, and can't read the Form. If you're playing in the Parimutuel pools, there's always next race. However, if you're involved in the contest world, you're under the gun and have to make a decision, even if it is a decision you normally wouldn't make when wagering for profit.
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Old 03-19-2018, 05:20 PM   #8
Mitch44
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I'm not into watching replays but I can see where it could have value as to how a horse won.

As a player you can't help but notice things in a race you played that a chart caller doesn't comment on. When that happens put it in your stable. And play it back or even if it was a contender you didn't bet.
Mitch44
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