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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems |
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07-29-2018, 01:01 PM | #1 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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"cause down the shore everything's alright" The Haskell
Hello
The Haskell grade 1 invitational Race 12 at the Jersey Shore/ Monmouth Park |
07-29-2018, 01:04 PM | #2 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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The field
Horses
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07-29-2018, 01:05 PM | #3 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Horses
5 6 7
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07-29-2018, 03:11 PM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 695
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Thanks for posting, Bill!!!
Good Magic- the big horse in this race, but connections will have bigger objectives down the road- Breeder's Cup Classic
Bravazzo and Senor D. Wayne Lukas should take this field as Ten Fold just won the Jim Dandy yesterday off the Preakness race. Question of the mutuel price on Bravazzo--5/2 ??? Good skills |
07-29-2018, 04:14 PM | #5 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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good skill
The 2 just missed at MTh race 9
Seems like all the horses that chased Justify are running well lately Good Magic and Bravado fit the pattern |
07-30-2018, 07:19 AM | #6 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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1 -2
Quote:
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07-30-2018, 07:35 PM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 507
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Good Magic ran like a monster...watch out the rest of the year...Chad Brown has another super star
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08-03-2018, 01:15 AM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 695
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Classic Tandem Reversal
Bill,
First off, I wanted to thank you for your "Herculean Efforts" in posting these races showing new members and prior...your steps in a concise and repeatable format. I wanted to go back and review this race because it a perfect race to show "The Classic Tandem Reversal" Now, previous Sartin teaching members like Marion Jones, taught us to use the same beaten lengths for horses that came out of the same race and finished within two lengths at the finish line. The eventual race winner; Good Magic went off at 2/5 so it did not surprised a soul but the race itself provides a perfect example of "The Classic Tandem Reversal"...... In the Preakness Race, Good Magic fought and pushed the Triple Crown Champion, Justify throughout the early fractions before succumbing at the finish line and finishing behind Justify and Bravazo - who is also entered in this race. But in this race- what is different is this match-up??? Justify is not in the race to fight the early pace fractions against Good Magic. The pace fractions from the Preakness happens to be the best (adjusted) in this particular match-up in the Haskell. So today, Good Magic will not have to face Justify's early energy expenditure and it appears that no other entrant is capable to match- up with the early pace fractions. This will allow Good Magic to run a softer early pace thus it will have more conserved energy to run the late part of the race. Good Magic will reverse the tandem with Bravazo. In Jim Bradshaw's teaching, Good Magic can save one tick (or more) of early pace energy in this match-up. This one tick in early pace energy conservation is worth two ticks at the end of the race. In another aspect, I normally have no hesitation entering more than one pace line for one racehorse. Bill, You entered two pace lines for Core Beliefs and you used the Preakness pace line for Bravazo but you did not used the same Preakness pace line for Good Magic. Thanks again Bill for your sharing.... |
08-06-2018, 05:18 PM | #9 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
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A very good post that I would like to expand on.
If looking for tandems gets you (general usage) there, so be it, but in order to benefit from the basic premise you’ve made here, it doesn’t require a tandem. Quoting from your post: Quote:
That is right on the money. In the end, if you think about it, it didn’t matter if Bravazo was in the race or not. Bravazo being in the race had no bearing on the outcome. What did matter was whether Justify was in the race or not. That is what had a bearing on the outcome. With or without Bravazo in the race, you identified the “key” to picking the winner of the race. There are many races out there where the basic premise you made here applies. You just have to look for them. Again, nice post!
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"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
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