Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Pace Makes the Race / TPR
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 09-14-2013, 01:14 AM   #1
For The Lead
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,286
Just follow the guidelines

The Sartin Methodology provides guidelines that cover just about any situation you will encounter.
Every race I post is done in the same way and following those guidelines. I also add a couple of guidelines of my own that I have learned from my database. Here they are:
1 - eliminate any horse that has a ML of 20/1 or higher. You'll get high price winners without searching for a needle in the haystack.
2 - eliminate any horse that has not run in the last 90 days. 95% of all winners have had a race in the last 90 days.
3 - eliminate any horse that does not have a "+" or "(+)" line at a similar distance and surface in the last 90 days.
CONSISTENCY is the key.

There were only 7 horses in this race. Here is my rundown of the field.


#1 – Line 2, 62 days ago. Last line, 26 days ago, was on the turf. Not the same surface as today. Today’s condition is for NW2L. Following the guidelines, you can use the horses maiden win, which is line 2 and a “+” race.
#2 – NO LINE. This horse has one race, a maiden win, however, it was not at today’s distance.
#3 – Last line. It was at the same distance and surface, therefore there is no reason to go back any further. The last line was a “+” race.
#4 – NO LINE. This horse has no form since its’ maiden win 327 days ago. Is there anything in the horses 7 races since then that encourages you to think it is ready to run back to that performance?
#5 – Line 2. Last line was not at a similar distance. Line 2 was at a similar distance. It was a “+” line. There is no reason to go back further.
#6 - No LINE. This horse hasn’t run in 124 days. It is not a contender.
#7 - Last line. The last line was at the same distance and surface. In fact, it was at the same track and condition. The race is a “+” race (it ran 3rd) and it was just 14 days ago.

Here are the horses.
Attached Images
    
__________________
"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own
For The Lead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-14-2013, 01:16 AM   #2
For The Lead
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,286
The rest of the field

Horses 5,6,7
Attached Images
   
__________________
"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own
For The Lead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-14-2013, 01:20 AM   #3
For The Lead
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,286
Screen shots & race chart

Screen shot and chart
Attached Images
     
__________________
"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own
For The Lead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-14-2013, 02:31 PM   #4
Appy
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Flint Hills in Kansas, formerly from Montana
Posts: 334
Good thread.
Bad race.
I would have passed. I hate when there are multiple entries with little to no info. Been burnt too many times on that account.
This was a good exercise for me, lead. I've been struggling with line and contender selection. But last few days I've seen improvement as I'm gaining familiarity with the abbreviations, thanks to re-reading Follow Ups and you guys posting the screenshots.
I DID take note of the tandems involved in this race! Baby steps are small, but progress is progress.
Thanks for the thread.
__________________
Serious fun. www.cappersoverlay.com
Appy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-14-2013, 05:04 PM   #5
For The Lead
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,286
Quote:
Originally Posted by Appy View Post
Good thread.
Bad race.
I would have passed. I hate when there are multiple entries with little to no info. Been burnt too many times on that account.
This was a good exercise for me, lead. I've been struggling with line and contender selection. But last few days I've seen improvement as I'm gaining familiarity with the abbreviations, thanks to re-reading Follow Ups and you guys posting the screenshots.
I DID take note of the tandems involved in this race! Baby steps are small, but progress is progress.
Thanks for the thread.
As I frequently do, my suggestion is in 2 parts;
1 - read the Paceline Manual
2 - read everything at this link
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8784

Sooner or later everyone has to come up with a consistant strategy for picking contenders and pacelines, otherwise be hopelessly lost.

I see no better place to start than with the guidelines setforth by Howard Sartin at the outset of his methodology.

It doesn't matter what you do, you will not pick the winner of every race or even every race you bet should you pass some races. You will lose races. The idea is to win as many of them as you can. Using one strategy this race and another strategy the next race can only get you and your bankroll in trouble.
__________________
"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own
For The Lead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-14-2013, 10:13 PM   #6
Speed Figure
AlwNW1X
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 14
I really could ever follow any of things because I would ever eliminate a horse because it's 20/1 on the ML and can't eliminate a horse just because it's been off for 90+ days.
Speed Figure is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-14-2013, 11:22 PM   #7
For The Lead
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,286
Quote:
Originally Posted by Speed Figure View Post
I really could ever follow any of things because I would ever eliminate a horse because it's 20/1 on the ML and can't eliminate a horse just because it's been off for 90+ days.
Best of luck to you then.

Just so you know, I didn't wake up one morning and decide this was the best course of action.

I dislike doing this every time I do it, but you are new here, so here goes. I learned those two things as a result of hundreds of thousands of races and millions of horses in a database I keep.

I choose to work with the horses that are most likely to win 19 out of 20 races, not 1 out of 20 races. You don't have to work with horses that are 20/1 ML or greater in order to get a big price, which is what the race I posted here shows. In fact, there are MANY races posted in this teaching area using these same guidelines that paid the kind of prices one is looking for by working with ML 20/1 or greater horses. Statistically, they just had a better chance of actually winning the race.

The same is true by eliminating horses off more than 90 days. As I said when I posted this race, 95% of ALL WINNERS have raced in the last 90 days. One can either work with the horses most likely to win, or search for that needle in the haystack.

In the end, I think it is hard to sell something new, short, before actually trying it and keeping records for yourself. You never know, you might learn something new. I know I did. I didn't always follow these extra guidelines. I learned from keeping a database. I let that teach me what things are statistically better to follow than others. In 15 years of accumulating races and horses, it just never changes.

Just a suggestion here, it might be a good idea to read through this thread http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8784 as well as many of ther other threads in this area. I think you will find them informative.
__________________
"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own
For The Lead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-15-2013, 12:55 AM   #8
Speed Figure
AlwNW1X
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 14
I wouldn't say I'm new here, I just don't post. I loving playing cheap claiming races where almost all of the horses are 1 or 2 for whatever their record is. I became a better player when I stopped saying must have a race in last 90 days, must be this & that. For me every race is different! a 20/1 shot in a grade 1 is not the same as a 20/1 in a $4000 claiming race. I'm not a RDSS user, but do respect the program and the work Ted does.
Speed Figure is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-15-2013, 02:22 AM   #9
For The Lead
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,286
Quote:
Originally Posted by Speed Figure View Post
I wouldn't say I'm new here, I just don't post. I loving playing cheap claiming races where almost all of the horses are 1 or 2 for whatever their record is. I became a better player when I stopped saying must have a race in last 90 days, must be this & that. For me every race is different! a 20/1 shot in a grade 1 is not the same as a 20/1 in a $4000 claiming race. I'm not a RDSS user, but do respect the program and the work Ted does.
Well, that's great news!

I happen to focus on the lower level tracks myself. Tracks such as DEL, TP, PEN, PRX, MNR, PIM and LRL with a little MTH thrown in. So I can tell you this.

So far in 2013 at those lower level tracks, horses with a ML of 20/1 or higher have won 2% of all the races there, far below the average of 5%.

The good news is, at those same tracks, horses that have not run in the last 90 days have won 6% of all races at those tracks, which is 1% higher than the average.

I agree with you. Ted has done a very nice job with RDSS, however, it doesn't make ML 20/1 horses or horses that haven't raced in the last 90 days, win. You still have to pick good contenders and good pacelines.
__________________
"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own
For The Lead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-15-2013, 08:39 AM   #10
Bill V.
Grade 1
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 8,887
20/1 ml

Hello Speed Figures

I consider Parx to be a middle of the road track, Parx is the only track I keep records from.
Parx offers a great mix of low, average high and stakes races
so I feel my records are useful to this subject.

My database, which consist of every race on every card run at Parx
I will focus on the last 180 races.and just on the winner of those races. These 180 races are from all cards from 8/11
to yesterday 8/14.

In these 180 races the winner had a ML of 20/1 or above just 1 time
that's 1 for 180 !

7 times in those 180 race the winner had a ML of 15/1.

How good is the Parx morning line maker ?
I would say excellent look at these figures.

The average morning line for all 180 winners was 5/1 (5.28)

The average off odds for all 180 winners was also 5/1 (5.39)

Next I checked the races were the winner paid over 20/1.
There were 7 winners in this group.
Here are the results of those races - Off odds and the morning lines

1. 39.60/1 ML 15
2. 29.20/1 ML 12
3. 32.60/1 ML 15
4. 28.20/1 ML 15
5. 24.80/1 ML 10
6. 34.40/1 ML 12
7. 33.90/1 ML 15

By the way the lone winner with a ML of 20/1 or higher?
The crowd bet it down to 10.80/1 and it paid $23.60

This is why I follow the guidelines FTL suggest. the horses at 20/1 ML
just don't win, Yet horse that have run within 90 days and have plus or plus within a zero pace lines win at good prices.
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Contender/paceline guidelines mrhug Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum 21 01-04-2012 10:52 PM
** 5th Anniversary Follow Up Goodies ** Ted Craven General Discussion 9 06-07-2010 11:36 AM
"Which 2 do I bet? Doc Sartin's wagering guidelines RichieP RDSS 11 12-03-2009 10:09 PM
Follow Up Index by Issue/Author Ted Craven The Follow Up 0 10-15-2009 09:54 AM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:40 AM.