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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

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Old 09-16-2013, 04:18 AM   #21
atkinsrr
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Hi FTL just read your commentary and I'm a little confused about one thing...I've read in the follow ups. i.e. (FU #84 page 38) that we should not use pacelines where a horse was beaten by 7.5 lengths or more...yet you used a pace line on #3 Lucky River where he lost 6 lengths in the stretch and was beaten by 13 lengths. I don't understand how this can be called a "+" race. Can you please direct me to the follow up issues that "Doc" talks about pace line selection only using a "+" race. I have looked thru all of my follow ups and can't find anything on that subject....am I missing something here??
please help...Thx
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Old 09-16-2013, 05:16 AM   #22
atkinsrr
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Would also like to comment on layoffs...please read follow up #81 page 35..."Doc" discusses layoffs from 79 to 195 days...if you use the proper P/L and the horse is in your top 3 BLBL then it's a contender...it's actually a matter of record keeping and from my own experience the higher class horses are more likely to win off a long layoff than the "cheapies"...of course follow up #81 was published in 2000 and a lot of things have changed in racing...so record keeping is very vital..actually I had a Chad Brown horse at Belmont beat me saturday with a 111 day layoff (9th race).......good skills to all!!!!!!
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Old 09-16-2013, 06:48 AM   #23
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Originally Posted by atkinsrr View Post
Would also like to comment on layoffs...please read follow up #81 page 35..."Doc" discusses layoffs from 79 to 195 days...if you use the proper P/L and the horse is in your top 3 BLBL then it's a contender...it's actually a matter of record keeping and from my own experience the higher class horses are more likely to win off a long layoff than the "cheapies"...of course follow up #81 was published in 2000 and a lot of things have changed in racing...so record keeping is very vital..actually I had a Chad Brown horse at Belmont beat me saturday with a 111 day layoff (9th race).......good skills to all!!!!!!
Although I did not research it before answering you, "I TEND" to agree with you that it is more likely for a high class horse to win off a layoff of more than 90 days than it is for cheap horses to win off a layoff of more than 90 days. Nevertheless, when taken in an overall pictutre, horses off more than 90 days win just 5% of the time.

Let me make myself clear, since horses off more than 90 days win 5% of the time, they obviously do win....sometimes... so one can find a race where they either won with a horse that was off more than 90 days or got beat by a horse that was off more than 90 days. But that is only one side of the coin. The question becomes, how many horses have you bet that were off more than 90 days that lost? Or, how many races were you NOT beat by a horse off more than 90 days?
When I did the research, I "stretched" the number of days off to give myself the greatest number of horses to choose from without including every horse. At some point you have to conclude that some horses are just not primary contenders based on recency. Here's how it breaks down:
A race in the past 30 days = 77%
A race in 31-45 days = 11%
A race in 46-60 days = 4%
A race in 61-90 days = 3%

More than racing changing since 2000, is the fact that "Doc" never had as many races as I do for his research. I mean, the internet didn't come along until 1994, which doesn't mean that everybody was immediately on line with a PC and downloading race cards everyday. I started in 1997, so I am in my 16th year.

Taking the parimeters you mentioned above, 79 to 195 days, possibly takes a horse away from racing for more than 6 months. My first question would be "WHY"? The owner can't make any money when their horse is in the barn or on the farm, yet they have to pay the bills. My first thought would be an injury and that isn't a good thing, especially where an older horse is concerned.

You mention a "proper paceline". What is a "proper paceline" for a horse that has been off that long? If the horse has been off 195 days, how much further back are you going to go for a paceline? How old is THAT LINE? What would make one think a horse off 195 days is ready to run back to a paceline that is, perhaps, 240 days old?
You will win more races by ignoring horses off more than 90 days than you will betting ON them. And including them as contenders with a very old line will just muddy the water for you.

With regard to the #3 horse you asked about, let me first say this.

+ = any race where the horse ran, 1st, 2nd or 3rd
(+) = any race where the horse shows one of the following
A – showed good early form by being 1st or 2nd at the first and/or 2nd calls, even if it faded down the stretch
B – any race where the horse made a good middle move (that’s call 1 to call 2) gaining in lengths and being within 2 lengths of the leader at the second call, even if it faded down the stretch
0 = any other line

What is a useable line?
Any line where the horse had an impact on the outcome of the race.
The "+" and "(+)" notations above are the types of horses that have an impact on the race.
If this appears in a follow up, I can't point you to it. I don't have the follow ups commited to memory. However, you can also find paceline information in the Paceline Manual.

If you are using RDSS, the next time you choose contenders and lines, look at your "original" screen. Do the horses show they had an impact on the race?

The #3 horse finished second in its' last race, which makes the race a "+" race and also in that race it was 2nd at the first call and although losing one position to the second call it gained 1 length between the first and second calls, putting it within 2 lengths of the leader, which would be a "(+)" by itself.

Lastly regarding the #3 horse, there is no other line to use for this horse. All its' other races are sprints with the exception of one route race on the turf, which doesn't qualify and is too old anyway. For this horse, the last line is the line! I would also say that this is not as much a case of the #3 horse losing all this ground in the stretch as it is a superior horse just running away from the field. Here's the horse.

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Old 09-16-2013, 07:18 AM   #24
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Well, this thread is going so well I decided to post another race.This one is from Sunday at PARX, the 5th race.

I don't think I have to spell out the guidelines again. It seems everyone pretty much understands them. Whether they agree or not is another matter.

There is one thing I want to cover regarding this race. Where the conditions appear, the full condition for some Starter Allowances (SA) race are not shown. Where the race is a NW2L or NW3L that does appear. Where the condition is NW1X, that does not appear.This also happens to be the condition for today's race.

Here's the rundown:

#1 - last line. There is no reason to choose any other line. The race was 22 days ago on the same surface, at a similar distance and same class.
#2 - NO LINE. The last race is 126 days ago.
#3 - last line. There is no reason to choose any other line. The race was 22 days ago on the same surface, at a similar distance and same class.
#4 - SCR
#5 - NO LINE. All its' races are route races with the exception of a 7.5 furlong race which was on the turf and is too old anyway.
#6 - Line 2. YLast race 14 days ago. Second race back 62 days ago. You can't use the last line at 4 furlongs from Timonium. Line 2 qualifies as a "(+)" race because although it lost 1 position from the first call to the second call, it gained almost 1.5 lengths to be within 2 lengths of the leader at the second call.
#7 - Last line. The race was 14 days ago, same distance, same surface. It is moving up in class.

Before I post the horses and screen shots, take note of the #1, #3 and #7 horses that all have a recent race at today's class level. Make your own judgements.
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Old 09-16-2013, 07:27 AM   #25
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Horse #7 and screen shots
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Old 09-16-2013, 07:30 AM   #26
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The chart of the race
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Old 09-16-2013, 07:46 AM   #27
Bill V.
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Conditions

Hello FTL

Yes thanks for posting this race and the reminder of the 10/1 winner today
at Parx .

FTL The conditions of today's race is a SA 16 N1X/4-L
Besides the 2 main conditions of having started in a claiming race of $16000
or less Or other than there also is a "OR" that adds non winners of 4 lifetime

Horse 1 and 3 come out of the same race, same conditions on 8/24
The 7 horse's SA16 race in line 2 is also this same condition

Today condition

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Result chart for race on 8/22

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Old 09-16-2013, 07:59 AM   #28
Bill V.
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7.5

Hi Akinsrr


I would like to to answer your question to FTL about horses beaten 7.5 lengths because I don't think FTL used Validator
Doc from Follow up 84 that means Doc was using and promoting a specific program .. Validator and the Validator algorithms are based on
a weighing were horses beaten by over 7.5 lengths are overly adjusted

Doc does say never use a paceline were a horse was beaten over 7.5 lengths for validator but NEVER says
never use over 7.5 BL for all his programs.
The guidelines at one time when lines were hand entered statetd,
If you use a paceline were a horse was beaten by over 9 lengths change the beaten lengths to 9. So as FTL points out
yes the horse was beaten by 13 but it finished second That means the winner was outstanding and could have draw off to a discouraged horse
maybe? If this was a race being hand entered in one of the old programs
wouldn't the line be used but the final beaten lengths be changed to 9 ?

Thanks for your question
Bill
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Old 09-16-2013, 08:53 AM   #29
DontSayDont
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Hi DSD ( I hate screen names )

As far as your question about distances,In your example above
I would need to know something.
Is the race a zero / than why?

1. Is the only reason the 8.5 race was a zero race because of the 8.5 distance.
What I mean is, lets say in your example the horse shows wins at the 8.5 distance down in its past performance races.

One of the valid excuses from the pace line manual is
Wrong Distance. But I would need to look at the horses history

Every race is different. That is why there is nothing in the valid excuses
list from the pace line manual about more or less than 1 furlong

The question is best answered by " is this race comparable?"

Has the horse won or ran a + race at this distance in the past ?

In FTL's example race a big key to the good price for the winner.
is that the 1.6/1 ML favorite has no comparable pace line

Bill
The race in question was the 6th race at Finger Lakes on 9/14, the JackBettaBeRite Hcp. I realize not many on this board play there so didn't think anyone would have the race in RDSS.

I need to clear one thing up. I am not using RDSS but a homegrown program started about 10 -12 years ago. Why? Do I think it is better? "Absolutely not!" I sometimes wonder if I like playing or the time spent on trying to put it together on my own. I do like the fact that I understand where my numbers come from and what they mean. I would have to learn all that by going with RDSS. And there are just so many screens to look at that I am sure I'd be confused for a long time. That is a reason I would never use AllWays software, too much information for me. But it is because of not using RDSS that I can't post screen shots and make my posts clearer. I do try to ask questions that would be askable (if that is a word) by users of RDSS.

Thanks for your time Bill and, ok, the name is Ray.
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Old 09-16-2013, 09:17 AM   #30
DontSayDont
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My first question here is, do you mean "profile" or do you mean "model"? I believe it would be a model. Will have to look up that up in Brohamer's Book.

You have gone a long way to clearing up my question. It was just one of those days at the races where horses defying the qualifying rules were winning. I guess the reason it was so disappointing was it was a Hcping Challenge day and 200+ day layoffs won along with horses that I thought should get no line etc. were knocking off my picks. It is easier when I am home but driving 2 hours to get to the track and finding only 1 playable race (losing that one) was frustrating.

The question itself was not stemmed out of pent up aggravation.

Quote:
Thanks for the questions and for the information you provided

You and Bill have been very helpful in any question I have asked.

Now one more question on the last race you just posted. I #2 horse you gave no line because of layoff time. That horse was laid off before the exact amount of days and came back with a powerful win. Would you ever consider that and give the horse the winning line? The difference in the 2 races were, one was a win in NW2 and one a NW3.

Thanks again.
Ray
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