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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

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Old 08-29-2014, 03:20 PM   #1
Bill V.
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Is This line a + (+) or 0

Here is a older female
The race was from xxxx (for those who will just go to the result chart )
I would like your opinions on the last pace line The race was from Parx
Is it a plus pace line ?
Is it a plus within a zero ?
Is it a zero ?

** by last I mean line 1

Lets discuss this ..

Bill

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Old 08-29-2014, 06:04 PM   #2
mowens33
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Bill, here are my thoughts:

Running in a rout she needs to be early, from the comment she got a slow start and got rushed and was in contention to the 2nd call.(a decent form indicator) But looking at the past performance she looks better going short. If she was in a sprint today I may consider this a plus/zero race, but in this case I consider it a zero.

Thanks for the encouragement and kind words from my previous post!!

Mike
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Old 08-29-2014, 09:23 PM   #3
Mr.Pagine
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My thoughts = negative

Bill,

Great exercise - thanks.

To finish back by 19 in a 7,500 CL is a no-no
I like the first quarter of the last race and that is all.

In my opinion, I would look elsewhere.

Happy Punting!!
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Old 08-30-2014, 02:38 AM   #4
Earl J
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I think the answer is 0.

But...is it a bounce race?

The second race looks like a lifetime best.


Earl J
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Old 08-30-2014, 03:23 AM   #5
Mark
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How many people would judge a 48.6 gate work as evidence of good health and fitness?
What about a gate work of 1:14 and change 21 days ago?
I perceive this last race as and indication that the horse is ready to run well and given a similar paced race today most likely a wire to wire winner if there are no other Early horses in the field. I'd like her even better if there were no good Pressers in the field.
This is a young lightly raced horse that appears to have enough racing to be fit since the long layoff. While not according to the definitions of the +, 0 or (0), I would give her my own +. She is 5yo now. Half her PPs are from her 2yo year. The most recent 5 are interrupted by two 70+ day layoffs and all but her last were sprints. Look at the fractions of her second back. For the level those are pretty quick and the final time is excellent for the level. I'd say she was beautifully placed in her last race but didn't break.
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Old 08-30-2014, 07:31 AM   #6
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I would give her an excuse in her latest but then have to make her a non-contender as I would have to go to far back to get a usable line. Also not sure she can run with 7500 claimers. She broke her maiden for Mc10k and then won a 5kn2L. I think she may need another drop to the 5k level before winning.

Ray
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Old 08-30-2014, 09:34 AM   #7
Bill V.
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Great

I want to thank you all for this discussion Really, from my gut this is what I feel.
I appreciate the work that you have done without the help of knowing the results.


I will post my comments in a little bit but what I have read so far is very positive

any more others ?

Thanks
Bill
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Old 08-30-2014, 09:44 AM   #8
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some things

In the mean time I want you to take note of two things

If you notice I blocked out the some information but I left in the post position
Post 4

another thing look at the trouble line "broke slow"


"The last line is the best indication of a horses current form and ability"
Tom Brohamer
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Old 08-30-2014, 11:16 AM   #9
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I'll go for a 0.
Look at pace line #8 - broke 7th, rushed up, then faded, but he did not fall apart in the stretch - he only lost another couple of lengths.
Last race, he kept losing ground.

Now, I am sure after that analysis, he won by a pole!
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Old 08-30-2014, 11:26 AM   #10
Bill V.
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line 8

Hi Tom

Line 8 was as a 2 year old and also on a 1 turn mile at Laurel

At this point lets not worry about what happened in this race win or lose
Lets look close at the last line

Bill
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