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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

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Old 07-18-2016, 09:47 AM   #11
Latekick
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dear bill thanks for explaning the tpr ,, on another note are you or any one else making money betting maidens? I'm having some success with rdss// turfsup
Maidens at this time of year especially are providing some great prices. If you know what to look for and know what has the possibility to create nice mutuals, maidens can make you a good chunk of change at this time of the year.
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Old 07-18-2016, 10:01 AM   #12
Bill V.
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maidens

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dear bill thanks for explaning the tpr ,, on another note are you or any one else making money betting maidens? I'm having some success with rdss// turfsup
Thank You Turtsup

I never was much good at maidens. That is not to say you can not win with Phase 1 in maiden races. But my problem is fining races with less than 2 FTS oor races were everybody has at least 3 pacelines .
I really only look for some spot plays in maiden races
One is a early horse who in its last line had the lead into the stretch but collapsed, Now it come right back and is in a favorable post and early pace match up advantage. The other spot play is a SAR work out - not too fast
The third is one I picked up from Hoof, That is I look for horses who have
come within 1 length of winning in their life past performances
In race 6 today at Parx I get the 2 and 3 horses
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Old 07-18-2016, 10:05 AM   #13
Bill V.
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Thank You Mark

Really nice of you to share your excellent work with us

Thank you
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Old 07-18-2016, 10:09 AM   #14
Bill V.
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Thank You

Thank You Mitch and Mick

and thanks for the nice private message

good skill
Bill
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Old 07-18-2016, 07:40 PM   #15
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Thank you Bill for all the hard work
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Old 07-19-2016, 11:38 PM   #16
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DEAR LATEKICK THANKS FOR YOUR RESPONSE REGARDING Maidens , I was wondering are you using rdss or some other program/ also are you using other info besides rdss screens? also anyone that makes money on maidens please comment//// thanks turfsup
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Old 07-20-2016, 02:09 AM   #17
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DEAR LATEKICK THANKS FOR YOUR RESPONSE REGARDING Maidens , I was wondering are you using rdss or some other program/ also are you using other info besides rdss screens? also anyone that makes money on maidens please comment//// thanks turfsup
Yes i am using only RDSS.
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Old 07-20-2016, 06:45 PM   #18
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I've found that unless one is very selective about which maiden races to play you will end up losing in the long run. I'm with Bill that races with 2 more unknown factors should be passed. But that's up to each person to decide. Let your records be you guide.
Tim
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Old 07-20-2016, 10:39 PM   #19
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I've found that unless one is very selective about which maiden races to play you will end up losing in the long run. I'm with Bill that races with 2 more unknown factors should be passed. But that's up to each person to decide. Let your records be you guide.
Tim
I agree with Tim on this one. The only time i will ever look at Maiden races with 2 or more unknown factors is if it is a race required to play in a contest, other than that they are automatic passes.
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Old 06-21-2017, 07:29 AM   #20
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Tpr

A quote from Bill V.

"We can also ask can you do the match up without knowing
who the leaders will be at the second call and can those leaders have enough late energy to hold on".
My friend Jeff (shoeless) introduced me to Parx, also Bill, favorite track.
Before I even consider to invest money in a track that I don't know nothing about, I need to run a track profile to see which one of my three (3) contenders is winning and how the winners is performing. What I mean by performing "which of my 3 contenders was leading at the 2nd call or position less than 4th".
A small data sample, about 100 races for each distance would give me a small indication of what I'm looking for, I haven't reach that number but for what I see it looks promising.

At 6f, after 32 races one of my contender was leading at the 2c 14 times and won the race.
One of my contender was 2nd position at the 2c 6 times, and won the race
One of my contender was 3rd position at the 2c 7 times, and won the race.
It seems to me that my contenders do retain enough energy to win the race.

27 races @ 6f out of 32 the winner was position less than 4th at the 2c, and the average winner paid $15.48. I don't invest in winners, DD and PK3 is my forte.

Races are won E or OTE. If you are able to devise a method that incorporate 3 E horses and 3 L horses and win about 32% of the time at the average winner of $15.48, you will make money.

The caveat is what numbers to use to find successfully the 3 Early and Late horses.

Last edited by gl45; 06-21-2017 at 07:48 AM.
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