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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

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Old 09-19-2017, 01:09 PM   #51
Jeebs
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#2 rolled as the chalk. Off the last line, it was rated the top "Paragon A" and "Energizer" here. 2nd rated on "Paragon B", SP, and Late EXDC. It was rated as an "Early" ESP by the program. Only reason I included in the DD was because of its standing on SP, which was better than #5.

Anyway, we are live to our DD single #4 in Race 2. Won't pay much if it wins, but we would still stand to make a decent profit on the race because of bet sizing. We'll see how it goes.
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Old 09-19-2017, 01:32 PM   #52
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Favorite was life and death after getting ganged up on, but held off a bomb to net us a small profit.

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Old 09-19-2017, 02:16 PM   #53
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Tim a small profit is still better then a loss.
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Old 09-19-2017, 03:42 PM   #54
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Good job

Good job Jeebs (Tim)

It's nice to see good results for good people

Glad you nailed the races at Parx with Energy!
Yes FTL is a tremendous teacher,

bless
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Old 09-19-2017, 07:33 PM   #55
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FTL

A BIG thank you for doing that and very easy to follow along,
your really helping me understand the program better
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Old 09-19-2017, 07:34 PM   #56
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Bill

Thank you as well, your no slouch in the teaching department
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Old 09-19-2017, 08:35 PM   #57
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What would make you not use the last line of a horses pp's?
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Old 09-19-2017, 09:22 PM   #58
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Bill

Thank you as well, your no slouch in the teaching department
Thank you Jeff , you know how much I owe to Doc` so anything I can do is my gift back to others

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Old 09-20-2017, 12:50 AM   #59
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FTL

What would make you not use the last line of a horses pp's?
Acceptable reasons for not using the last line where the horse ran a bad race or encountered one of the following. Remember, we are looking for either "+" or "(+)" races.

Let's start with a controversial reason.

1 - WRONG SURFACE. So what is controvesial about that? Sounds pretty straight forward, doesn't it? Well, suppose you are looking at a race on an artificial surface. Let's further suppose the horse has no races in its' PP's on an artificial surface, but it does have races on dirt and grass. Are either of them acceptable? In my opinion only the dirt races are acceptable. There will be those who disagree. Why? They will say a horse expends its' energy on an artificial surface in much the same way it does on grass. I say "so what?". I'm sure there are other stories, but I'll just take a horse by the name of "Ft. Marcy" as an example. If you are old enough, perhaps you will remember him. If you're not old enough, GOOGLE his name. He was a grass CHAMPION, but he didn't start out that way. He started out, like most horses, running on dirt and was a miserable failure. In a last ditch effort, just before sending him off to the glue factory, they raced him on grass. The rest is history. Horses "feel" with their feet, just like you do. Some of them don't like the feel of dirt, but love the feel of grass. And the opposite is also true. Now, I have never heard a story where a horse ran on an artificial surface for the first time and came back and said,"WOW! That feels just like grass!". If YOU, in your bare feet, walked on an artificial surface, a dirt surface and a grass surface, do you think you could feel the difference? Probably, huh? So, my opinion is, grass is grass. Unfortunately, we have to deal with dirt and artificial surfaces. I use them interchangeably, but grass is grass and that's all that it is.

2 - WRONG DISTANCE. Just one note here. DOC said to use races that are within one furlong or 1//8th of a mile from todays' distance. Suppose todays' distance is one mile. Is a seven furlong race acceptable? NO! One mile is a route. Seven furlongs is a sprint. Don't mix sprints with routes or routes with sprints.

3 - WRONG CLASS. This means the class was too high. Go back one line and follow the guidelines.

4 - FIRST TIME OVER THE TRACK AT THE CURRENT MEET. If this is the case and the horse ran a poor race, go back one line and apply all the same guidelines.

5 - TROUBLE LINE. If the horse's last line is a trouble line, go back one line and apply all the same guidelines. Somewhere in one of my posts, I put up a screen shot of a horse from one of the early follow ups. Believe it or not, every line in his PP's was a trouble line. So what do you do? The answer is, use the last line as long as it fits the guidelines. By the way, for those who followed this in the follow up example race, they were rewarded with a double digit mutual.

6 - TRACK CONDITION. When the track is "OFF", such as muddy, sloppy, good, etc., you are not suppose to use that line. However, I need only to direct you to the race I put up yesterday. I used a line from an "OFF" track because it was the only possible line to use. I don't throw horses out because the only line I can get comes from an "OFF" track condition.

7 - THE 90 DAY GUIDELINE. This IS NOT a Sartin guideline. It is mine. If a horse hasn't run in 90 days I throw it out. It gets no line. When I am excusing lines, I do not go back more than 90 days. If a horse is sound and racing on a regular basis, it can run 4 or 5 times in 90 days. If you can't get a line from one of those races the horse is probably not going to win. If a horse came back after a long layoff and has just one race back, it better be a "+" or "(+)" race or it gets thrown out. The other races will be more than 90 days old.

I think this will cover most of the situations you will encounter.
Hope it helps.
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Old 09-20-2017, 01:21 AM   #60
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Is a seven furlong race acceptable? NO! One mile is a route. Seven furlongs is a sprint. Don't mix sprints with routes or routes with sprints.
I get the reason why it wouldn't be acceptable in the majority of cases (the dynamics of a 7F race around one turn are much different than a mile race around two turns), however one would think that at tracks such as Aqueduct, Belmont, Gulfstream, Churchill and Arlington, accepting the 7F to 1M would be acceptable, since they are both one turn affairs. I've come to accept the notion that at these tracks, the 1M distance is basically a long sprint, since they are racing at most, a half mile straightaway before hitting a turn, and the absence of the first turn and the force created by racing around a turn lends itself better to a faster pace than its two turn counterpart. The pace of race might vary race to race between 7F and 1M, but all things equal, the horses are only dealing with the single turn. Just my two cents.
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