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10-30-2013, 09:42 AM | #11 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
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What is 'Tote Xray' (Tx)
Quote:
To activate the RDSS Tote Board, click the Supertote Button on the RDSS Desktop, read the message which appears, then login to the BrisNet Supertote web page presented within RDSS (you need a free Brisnet account via the link provided). Then close the Supertote web page. This establishes a connection between RDSS and Supertote to retrieve odds and pool information regularly. Now, Minutes to Post (MTP), live Win Odds and the Tote Xray will appear on the Analysis screens and various other screens. In general, Tote Xray measures for each horse the general tilt of monies bet in the Win, Place and Show pools towards the Win pool, then the relative ranking of such tilt for all horses. The horse with the most money distributed towards the Win pool relative to the others is shown as rank #1 and 0.0% deviation from best (it is the best). The other horses are shown as a percentage deviation from this best. Arguably, this measures relative confidence of certain members of the betting public (perhaps the 'insiders' or perhaps skilled or just 'large' bettors). The 'xray' part of the idea is that when this ranking diverges from the Win Odds rank, there is extra information (e.g. hidden) revealed by the Tote Xray of relationships between the pools, and between the horses. For example, when the betting favourite (i.e. Win Odds rank #1) is also the Tote Xray 0.0% ranked #1 horse, there is no extra information. But when a higher odds horse is ranked Tx #1 - near to post time - there is potentially extra or hidden information. In the above image, the #1 Tx horse was ranked 4th in Win odds at 6-1 (the winner, #8). One of the original uses of Tx was to Dutch the top 3 or 4 ranks in the Win or Exacta pools for a high percentage hit rate. Where the Tx #1 rank agrees with the Win Odds #1 rank (i.e. the betting favourite), this can point to the horse who should be 'hedged' to get a simple breakeven return or partial loss while preserving the balance of the betting unit for the remaining Tx ranks 2 - 3 or 4. (If your ADW does not enable Dutch calculations in Win or Exacta pools, please read --> this) However, in RDSS the Tote Xray is intended to be used as a corollary to the primary handicapping factors, just like any other supplementary factor - an extra confidence booster or tie-breaker. While the Top 4 ranked Win odds horses win a very high percentage of all races, it is possible that the Top 4 Tote Xray rankings win an even higher percent. Admittedly lots of money flows late into the pools, and the TX ranks and gaps do fluctuate - however my anecdotal evidence is that the Tx rankings and gaps change less than the Win Odds ranks do between 1 MTP and the Off. And certainly the absolute Top 4 Tx ranks do not change much, so it remains relatively useful in Dutching despite late money flows. Here is a short previous discussion on Tote Xray: http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6257 .
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ Last edited by Ted Craven; 02-15-2016 at 10:04 AM. |
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