RDSS 2.0 Screenshots

[SilentRun]

Ted,

I think the new screens are great. Particularly the integration of the Tote-X-Ray
data. I have been compiling stats on the TX and monitoring the percentage
of winners and exactas. The stats include the position of the winner and
place horse within the top 4 TX. I have been having moderate success in
wagering using my RDSS contenders in relation to the top 4 Tx contenders.
As I learn more I am always trying to improve my wagering and come
up with a wagering approach.

Based upon my experience with this.....
Displaying the top 4 TX contenders is important as there is a significant
number of Win/Exacta horses coming from the 4th TX ( yellow position)

I also have stats to show that the TX also produces the illogical,
non-contender (RDSS throw out) horse within the top 4 TX that
sometimes wins but more often is an exotic ITM horse. This is
an amazing edge. This is the horse that you say,
"How did he get there ?".

So my request is: COULD YOU PLEASE DISPLAY THE TOP 4 TX HORSES.
The o.o (white) , Red, Green and Yellow and the users would see how
many times that one of the TX horses appears as a secondary or
non-contender and at the same time is up there in an exotic.


Thank You For Your Consideration,

Ernie

[BJennet]

Originally Posted by SilentRun

Ted,

I think the new screens are great. Particularly the integration of the Tote-X-Ray
data. I have been compiling stats on the TX and monitoring the percentage
of winners and exactas. The stats include the position of the winner and
place horse within the top 4 TX. I have been having moderate success in
wagering using my RDSS contenders in relation to the top 4 Tx contenders.
As I learn more I am always trying to improve my wagering and come
up with a wagering approach.

Based upon my experience with this.....
Displaying the top 4 TX contenders is important as there is a significant
number of Win/Exacta horses coming from the 4th TX ( yellow position)

I also have stats to show that the TX also produces the illogical,
non-contender (RDSS throw out) horse within the top 4 TX that
sometimes wins but more often is an exotic ITM horse. This is
an amazing edge. This is the horse that you say,
"How did he get there ?".

So my request is: COULD YOU PLEASE DISPLAY THE TOP 4 TX HORSES.
The o.o (white) , Red, Green and Yellow and the users would see how
many times that one of the TX horses appears as a secondary or
non-contender and at the same time is up there in an exotic.


Thank You For Your Consideration,

Ernie

Hi Ernie,

I was looking over the TX columns on the new RDSS, and trying to understand how they're used. Although I've read some of your posts, it's not completely clear to me. As far as I can tell the TX ranking is almost completely correlated with Final Odds. There must be something I'm missing here. Any help appreciated.

Cheers,

BC

[SilentRun]

Originally Posted by BJennet

Hi Ernie,

I was looking over the TX columns on the new RDSS, and trying to understand how they're used. Although I've read some of your posts, it's not completely clear to me. As far as I can tell the TX ranking is almost completely correlated with Final Odds. There must be something I'm missing here. Any help appreciated.

Cheers,

BC

Sorry, but I do not understand how the TX rankings are computed.
I posted a similiar request some time ago to no avail. All I can say that
It is some algorithm relationship between the pools.
But After compiling empirical data and matching the TX to my
RDSS contenders I find it is helping me and I can use all the help I can get.
The first at Tampa today is a good example.

Ernie

[BJennet]

Originally Posted by SilentRun

Sorry, but I do not understand how the TX rankings are computed.
I posted a similiar request some time ago to no avail. All I can say that
It is some algorithm relationship between the pools.
But After compiling empirical data and matching the TX to my
RDSS contenders I find it is helping me and I can use all the help I can get.
The first at Tampa today is a good example.

Ernie

Hi Ernie,

Sorry for the misunderstanding. I thought this was something you developed, not realizing that it originated with Ted. But it doesn't change my response.

In two of the three races posted, and in the odds of two of three horses in the last (TAM) race, all of the horses TX rating simply tracked the final odds. And BTW, congrats on the 15/1 hit, but based on what Ted said in his explanation of how the TX is formulated, there's nothing pointing to why the horse should have ranked so highly on this rating, although I did have it ranked #3 on my BL/BL.

From what Ted says in his explanation of the TX rating, it sounds very similar to the technique invented by William Ziemba about 25 years ago to spot inefficiencies in place and show pools. This was a very good system in its time, and was even validated by Edward Thorp. I used it myself, as apparently did Dave Schwartz. But the advantages it offered were quickly erased as bigger players became aware of it, and it was useless after about 1990. In general, I think it's safe to say that any system using toteboard information that is readily available to the crowd, has no wager value. Given the kind of computing power available to even the average person, this is exactly the kind of statistical information that makes it very easy to spot and erase inefficiencies.

BTW, I would be very happy to be proven wrong about this by a sample of a few hundred races. But I hope anyone who does so, makes an effort to isolate the performance of the TX rating, so we can assess its value independently of the BL/BL or any of the other Sartin factors whose value is already proven.

Thanks for your feedback.

Cheers,

B Jennet

[Ted Craven]

Re Tote Xray - well, it is what it is, and I think I gave enough info about its general derivation. It is co-related somewhat to Win Odds, but obviously not completely. The next phase is to co-relate Exacta pool relationships with Win Odds and Win/Place pool relationships. I agree, a proper study of Tx as it currently exists would be wonderful.

With RDSS 2.0, the tote exists separate from any TrackMaster PP data, and you can run RDSS without TrackMaster data at all if you want - just a tote connection, including databasing the tote data, exporting to various formats, replaying the tote values for a race minute by minute, etc. I have a computer dedicated to running RDSS just in tote mode to capture all tracks, every day. Since wager decisions are the end-point of the handicapping process, and those decisions depend on what's offered in various pools - harnessing that pool data - and relationships - is a core thing of RDSS going forward. We can achieve a lot of intelligence and flexibility about how to formulate wagers if we have real-time data and relationships - including up to when the horses load into the gate.

Ernie, not to disuade you at all from continuing your study of what Tx is showing you now. Just FYI - it will get easier.

BJ - fire up RDSS if you like and see what that Tote Xray thing is anyway. I know there's more subtelty can be integrated into it yet - but it does suggest some clues to round out exotic wagers from time to time.

Ted

[Capcondo]

Ted,

I come from a computer software implementation background so I think I know what good software looks like. You've done a great job with RDSS.

I like to match the horses and being able to see all the chosen pacelines together on the screen is great.

This might be the time to mention my suggestion. I use the RS buttons significantly when matching a race. It would be nice if there was an 'EF' (Early Fighter), 'EPF' (Early Presser Fighter), and 'PF' (Presser Fighter).

Thanks for your great work.

Tim

[SilentRun]

Originally Posted by BJennet

Hi Ernie,

BTW, I would be very happy to be proven wrong about this by a sample of a few hundred races. But I hope anyone who does so, makes an effort to isolate the performance of the TX rating, so we can assess its value independently of the BL/BL or any of the other Sartin factors whose value is already proven.

Thanks for your feedback.

Cheers,

B Jennet

I will review my tote data and see how many examples there are that
shows TX rating that is independent of BL/BL. This will include those
TX horses within the 4 top tote levels that either won or ran ITM (place
/show).

Ernie

[BJennet]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

Re Tote Xray - well, it is what it is, and I think I gave enough info about its general derivation. It is co-related somewhat to Win Odds, but obviously not completely. The next phase is to co-relate Exacta pool relationships with Win Odds and Win/Place pool relationships. I agree, a proper study of Tx as it currently exists would be wonderful.

With RDSS 2.0, the tote exists separate from any TrackMaster PP data, and you can run RDSS without TrackMaster data at all if you want - just a tote connection, including databasing the tote data, exporting to various formats, replaying the tote values for a race minute by minute, etc. I have a computer dedicated to running RDSS just in tote mode to capture all tracks, every day. Since wager decisions are the end-point of the handicapping process, and those decisions depend on what's offered in various pools - harnessing that pool data - and relationships - is a core thing of RDSS going forward. We can achieve a lot of intelligence and flexibility about how to formulate wagers if we have real-time data and relationships - including up to when the horses load into the gate.

Ernie, not to disuade you at all from continuing your study of what Tx is showing you now. Just FYI - it will get easier.

BJ - fire up RDSS if you like and see what that Tote Xray thing is anyway. I know there's more subtelty can be integrated into it yet - but it does suggest some clues to round out exotic wagers from time to time.

Ted

Hi Ted,

I do see that the TX feature is intended as only part of a larger effort to incorporate tote information into the software, which is, of course, a great idea. Although, as you mentioned, TX is intended to find place and show pool inefficiencies, you seem not be really be making any claims for its effectiveness in this area. As I said, I remain fairly sceptical about such possibilities, but hope that Ernie and others who are testing this feature will keep us informed about their results.

Congratulations on what you've done so far with this softward, and best of luck with the work that remains.

Cheers,

B Jennet

[BJennet]

Originally Posted by SilentRun

I will review my tote data and see how many examples there are that
shows TX rating that is independent of BL/BL. This will include those
TX horses within the 4 top tote levels that either won or ran ITM (place
/show).

Ernie

Hi Ernie,

I think we all appreciate you efforts. Just to add one thing - as I mentioned before, the TX often does seem to track the final odds rank very closely. To the extent that it does, as Ted mentioned himself in the original thread on this subject, it offers no additional value. So maybe a question worth thinking about is how often the TX puts a horse ITM that is neither a BL/BL contender nor in the top three or four final odds ranks.

Best of luck and thanks for your posts.

Cheers,

B Jennet

[raceman5]

If possible Ted how about a few races from Philly today with the new pace line selection?

Bob