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Old 05-31-2010, 09:38 PM   #11
Bud Jones
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Ted

The second screen in socantra post would be a major plus.

Not only for pace line selection but also for finding singles

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Old 05-31-2010, 09:48 PM   #12
Ted Craven
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Bud,

How would you use it to find singles?

Ted
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Old 06-15-2010, 05:55 PM   #13
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Rdss 2.0

I am new to the forum. It would be most appreciated if the Quirin pace and speed figures would be made available in your updated program. Keep us posted and thanks.
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Old 06-28-2010, 11:08 AM   #14
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Welcome William, and glad to have your feedback!

Do you use those MPH readouts? Others have been tantalizing me with the possibilities, but no takers yet in explaining privately or publicly how they would be either more useful than, or not redundant to readouts already existing. Or how they use these (whether they also use RDSS/Val/Spec or not).

I can understand providing older readouts as part of a migration path to newer readouts, but remember the discussions from about a hundred pages of Follow Ups over the years about information overload.

Just asking...

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Old 06-28-2010, 11:56 AM   #15
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Thanks for your response. I am using the old MPH program via Trackmaster. I love the Quirin figures and made them by hand for years. This process and keeping track profiles create a disciplined consideration of the expected race shape and the horses that are fast enough and can handle, or thirve upon, the expected shape. I also build Dick Mitchell ability time figures for turf routes and find them very helpful. I would love to see it in your update or in a re-issue of an updated and more Windows friendly MPH program. Keep us posted.
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Old 07-30-2010, 01:14 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted Craven View Post
Do you use those MPH readouts? Others have been tantalizing me with the possibilities, but no takers yet in explaining privately or publicly how they would be either more useful than, or not redundant to readouts already existing. Or how they use these (whether they also use RDSS/Val/Spec or not).

Ted
I was working on a general answer to your questions on Quirin pace and speed figures, but got involved in researching Trackmaster speed figures (again) and rediscovered how well Val does converting them to a functional equivalent of the old drf speed figure at a fifth of a second. I may just have to agree that the speed figure part might be redundant.

For a quickie explanation, the Quirin pace and speed figures are based on the concept that the $10,000 claimer is a factor that is approximately equal at all tracks. Quirin set the $10,000 par at 100 points. The pace figure moves up or down at a tenth of a second per point and the speed figure at a fifth of a second per point from that par.

Obviously, the $10,000 par is not universal at all tracks now, if it ever was, but everyone in the par business uses some kind of semi-universal base for their figures track to track. That is how they are able to claim that a 90 at one track is the same as a 90 at another track. Horsestreet and Cynthia publishing use the base figure of 100, as does speedfigures.com. CJ's Beyer type figures use an 80, DRF Beyers around 81-83, BRIS somewhere between 88 and 92 and it looks to me like the figure for Trackmaster is somewhere between 88 and 92 also, although they are on a very different scale from BRIS.

The key factor for me is being able to use the convenience of a fifth of a second for comparison of speed figures. It may sacrifice a little bit of accuracy, but I find it much more comprehensible the the 2.67 points per fifth second that Trackmaster uses per fifth at 6 furlongs, the 2.8 points that Beyer uses at 6, or the 1.78 points per fifth that Trackmaster uses at 9 furlongs.

That was before I sat for a week with a calculator, Spec, Val and Trackmaster pdf files of the same cards. Val does a great job of converting the Trackmaster figures to the old drf style SR-TV. So does Spec, though I'm not sure where some of the reported 'original' Trackmaster figures came from. So, my conversion to a fifth of a second is already done on the speed figure part. It might be nice if RDSS would convert the Trackmaster par figure to the same scale, but I do that with my calculator anyway.

Pace figures would be nice, but we never had them in the pp files used for Val & Spec and I don't know if you now have them in the RDSS files, or not. It seems like I remember at one time hearing that TM pace figures were based on 1st call, but I don't know that for a fact. Speed figures would be easy, but possibly redundant. Pace figures; I just don't know what you have to work with.

If you want to know more about the Quirin pace and speed figures, they are discussed in at least one of the first two Quirin books, Jim Quinn's Figure Handicapping and there is a chapter on them in the second edition of Brohammer's Modern Pace Handicapping. There is also a good description at speedfigures.com.
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Old 08-01-2010, 01:40 PM   #17
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Re: Quirin Speed and Pace Figs

Ted,

In the last portion of the book New Expert Handicappers by James Quinn, 3 handicappers use the figures to handicap during the Santa Anita meet. Many example of using the figures are shown. The handicappers were Quinn, Brohamer, and Ruosso. Of course, they won, otherwise the book would not have been as interesting.

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Old 08-04-2010, 12:47 PM   #18
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Thanks Jim, Dick and William,

I believe I have enough references to study Quirin pace figures (and I actually have all the books referenced!)

Dick, TrackMaster supplies for sprints a 2f (where applicable), 4f and final pace/speed figure for the race leader/winner, and the same ratings for each horse. For routes, the 4f, 6f and final pace/speed figs are supplied.

If we accept that each vendor's ratings are coherent within themselves while being numerically dissimilar to each other to an extent, and each is founded on the principle of a statistically meaningful standard or 'par' for a distance and surface (and the deviation of each horse from that par) - then I contend that the pace/speed figs available from TrackMaster are as good as any - and better: I can use them, because I'm not (in the foreseeable future) going to use any other ones or compute hand fabricated or commercially plug-in-able sets of pars.

Maybe I'm wrong by millimeters - but a par is a par is a par - AND getting exact figures is a fantasy anyway, AND is perhaps less than 50% (maybe way less) of the effort to making profit by betting on horses (the majority effort being wager selection/construction, record keeping and personal psychology). So maybe I can use TrackMaster's existing figs and display (analogous to the graphic in your post #9 above) the 2nd call POR fig and POH fig, plus the Final POR fig and POH fig. Maybe the numbers will be different, but the relationships should be similar.

I still fail to understand why this would be an advantage over displaying the 2nd call POR Velocity vs POH velocity and then the Final POR velocity (aka True Speed/TS) and POH velocity - better yet, graph them, both of which I plan to do. Is it the 2 digit pace/speed ratings compared to the decimal 3 digit velocity #s. Why add MORE numbers (except as a migration path to those familiar with a style of rating from other software, e.g. MPH, which was the point of this thread). We need LESS numbers (or numbers judiciously applied) and more pictures (graphs). More numbers often equals more confusion.

If enough people said they'd subscribe to RDSS if the exact MPH numbers appeared, well then...

Dick: when I get a functional MPH-style screen working, with the above existing TrackMaster supplied pars, I'll show it to you and perhaps you can suggest useful ways to improve it.

cheers,

Ted
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Old 08-22-2010, 05:57 PM   #19
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I have absolutely no problem with Trackmaster data. It is mathematically consistent within itself and I see no real reason why any other vendor's data should be any better. In fact, I think as long as you have worked out a deal with them which seems very beneficial for you, them and your customers, let them and their numbers do some of the heavy lifting.

You mention displaying them as velocity numbers. That is fine, especially in the later stages of your handicapping. However, I entered the methodology with the TPR numbers and am much more comfortable with fifths of a second than fps, especially during contender selection. I can scan the numbers quickly, without thinking about them and know just about how far one horse should be ahead of another. That saves me a lot of time in the early stages. I even find your TPR numbers with the tenths a bit to precise for my simple little (actually large) head.

The Beyer-like scale of the new Trackmaster numbers drives me crazy and turns my mind to mush. I know I can convert them to approximate a DRF style 100 based fifth of a second number by using something along the lines of (SR-130)/ (16/distance) +100, where SR is the Trackmaster speed rating and distance is in furlongs. I can and sometimes do after dealing with the variant, but computers can do it so much faster than me and my pocket calculator.

I don't care if its DRF SR scale or Quirin scale, I just figured the Quirin style numbers would be more in demand by most people. I suspect the graphics you talk about would be very popular with many people and I know that many if not most people relate more to graphics than numbers. I am in the minority there, as I like numbers better. Different strokes.

I look forward to whatever you come up with and will try to adapt myself to it.

Dick.
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Last edited by socantra; 08-22-2010 at 06:00 PM.
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Old 08-23-2010, 04:06 PM   #20
Bud Jones
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Hi Dick

I agree I like numbers better also.

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