50 Race Comparison: VDC vs NewPace

[Bill Lyster]

Rmath:

I took a cue from your recent comparison studies and added VDC columns to the recent DMR workup. there are 100 races in this sample.

I expanded the number of contenders to top four and ties in VDC after hiding the layoffs and long odds horses. See my notes at bottom of page. I chose contenders and let total energy be the primary guide to deletion.

Every once in a while a #5 or #6 TE horse would show up as VDC 1 or VDC 2, so in those cases I kept those horses and hid horses with higher TE, but lower VDC.

I did not bet races with more than two FTS, or foreign first US starts, or races with 4 horses entered.

By doing this I started seeing some amazing results - 100 race sample.
Wins: 83
exactas: 55
trifectas: 36
superfectas: 14

Great Idea, glad you decided to post your data.

The spreadsheet: NewPace-VDC DMR 2011.xls


Bill

[rmath]

Glad I could help.
That is what we are all trying to do. Help one another to be better.
I see you follow DOCs guidlines for playable races. I do too, But I raised his low odds of 5/2 to 4/1. Get less plays but make more money.
Thanks again for the compliment.
rmath

[Bill V.]

Thank you Bill L and Rmath

Im so happy Doc's VDC is doing so well for people
thank you for doing these test. VDC readouts and a solid betting method
seem very profitable in 2011 and into the future

one of the best vocals I have ever heard
Smith
http://youtu.be/8_uGlUxZ1J4

[Ted Craven]

I re-posted Bill's L's spreadsheet (in his post above) after there was a problem with the initial one. It's available now to view.

Ted

[Bill Lyster]

Race 50 , line 53 is actually a win; so total wins = 83. It does not change anything other than the win percentage and ROI. All other columns were correctly shown the first time.

Bill

[SilentRun]

Thanks for these studies they are valued contributions.....Ernie

[JeffH]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

Just a reminder that the VDC ranking sometimes has ties, so Top 2 should probably read 'Top 2 and ties', which in less than 40% (??) of races may mean 3 horses (e.g. 2 horses tied rank 1, or 2 horses ties rank 2)

I was just going to comment on the VDC scores. Is there a way to break these ties using the program so top3 or top 4 are exactly that? I was running races on Friday, and found some races with 5 horses in top 3 VDC.

[rmath]

JeffH; Jeff I use odds to separate any ties beyond the top as my second and third horses win% is about the same. You could use bl/bl or if you keep track of the rankings that make up the primary and secondary line scores,you coulduse which ever rankings are coming up the most. Eric Penicka wrote about separating ties in several articles in the Follow Up. I have found that when I have a tie for top that usually one or both will be right there.
I only get ties in about 30% to 35% of my playable races and if two or more of the top 2 or 3 ,depending on ties, are bet down below 8/5 or less I pass that race. Lately I have been passing a lot of races that have less than 7 starters.

[Bill Lyster]

Here is the Delmar meet updated through yesterday. I also corrected some minor spreadsheet errors.

I allocated 4 slots for VDC horses and occasionally you will see five horses crammed into those 4 spaces. the horses entered are from the BL screen with highest BL that is VDC 1 listed first. sometimes two or three are tied as VDC 1, so they are entered, left to right in the 1-2-3 slots.

The column subtotals at the bottom of the sheet do not represent the number of VDC1, VDC 2, etc win totals as a result.

Bill

[Bill Lyster]

Here is the Delmar meet updated through yesterday. I also corrected some minor spreadsheet errors.

I allocated 4 slots for VDC horses and occasionally you will see five horses crammed into those 4 spaces. the horses entered are from the BL screen with highest BL that is VDC 1 listed first. sometimes two or three are tied as VDC 1, so they are entered, left to right in the 1-2-3 slots.

The column subtotals at the bottom of the sheet do not represent the number of VDC1, VDC 2, etc win totals as a result.

Bill