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Old 03-13-2013, 01:36 PM   #11
Ted Craven
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Bob, I'm out of town for the day, but will call you late this afternoon. Meanwhile, since both Rick and the Dr have downloaded RDSS successfully several times, why not ask their assistance again.

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Old 03-18-2013, 11:34 AM   #12
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Ted...just wondering if anyone out there is keeping a model from their SECONDARY CONTENDERS list...I'm reviewing this past weekends Rebel Stakes and I'm trying to figure
out how this horse Will Take Charge could have been bet...Hiding Super 99 was the easy part...considering his low odds...but hiding Oxbow, Dens Legacy, and Delhomme...all at good odds is hard to do. Will Take Charge was #7 BLBL on my first run and did have a 2 ranking in EPR...horses that pay like this happen every year on the Derby trail..and usually they are hard to get...just wondering if anyone has kept models over the years on these kind of horses...I know I don't but going to start doing that...got to find a way to get these kind of winners...Thx...Randy
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Old 03-18-2013, 12:18 PM   #13
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work

Seems like your going to be doing a lot of work. Would this model show that these are young still developing horses in growth
Many of which are still learning, and there are horses with no chance just causing traffic and trouble ,They are being shipped all over.
and running on new tracks?

The more I read your question the more I see the answers
why Will Take Charge won

"It happens all the time on the Derby Trail "
I would rather just focus on the true contenders and
win my percentage
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Old 03-18-2013, 12:43 PM   #14
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Bill..thx for the post...yes happens all the time on the derby trail....just re-worked the race he's still hard to get...would have required a 3rd win bet in the race...but sometimes that works...just have to know when to do it....ok let's concentrate on the next month...got more big races in store......best to all
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Old 03-18-2013, 09:41 PM   #15
Ted Craven
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Randy,

Afterwards, I tried 9 ways to Sunday to push and pull that horse into betting position. Definitely a case for saying the race runs OTE with all the speedballs running each other down, but then the winner was not up there among my OTE's (I favoured Den and Treasure to stretch out).

I haven't heard of folks modelling secondary contenders, and I'm not even sure what that means. For me, a secondary contender is one which might pick up a piece of 2nd-4th. A horse which stands a chance to inherit the lead from tiring Earlies deserves a spot on my Primary Contender list. The winner did not show it had the chops in its Graded company races.

So I have to go with what Bill says - that some 3 YOs simply are ready to improve and rise to the occasion presented to them during the race. That's what improving 3YOs do on the Road to the Roses - and at the darndest times. It's exciting to watch and think about these races, but they're not my prime betting races - too many unknowns. I much prefer older stakes races.

Time to just move on to another race, IMO.

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Old 03-18-2013, 10:04 PM   #16
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Ted..thx for your answer..I also prefer older horses which is mostly what I do...but was just kinda wondering if anyone might have considered the winner in that race (Rebel)and what they might have done to get it
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Old 12-10-2013, 07:58 PM   #17
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Thanks for the info Ted. With the cold weather brining most everything to a standstill I've been wandering the isles here and browsing.

This could be linked to the glossary thread.
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Old 12-11-2013, 09:54 AM   #18
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Ted you stated that "Early Pace = EP = velocity to the 2nd Call. In RDSS, either 2nd call velocity (SC) or EPR = velocity to the 2nd Call."

When I look at EPR, on the TPR + EL tab, I see figures in the 80's and 90's. When I look at SC,on the POH tab, I see figures in the 50's. How is EPR calculated?
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Old 12-11-2013, 02:24 PM   #19
Ted Craven
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SamP View Post
Ted you stated that "Early Pace = EP = velocity to the 2nd Call. In RDSS, either 2nd call velocity (SC) or EPR = velocity to the 2nd Call."

When I look at EPR, on the TPR + EL tab, I see figures in the 80's and 90's. When I look at SC,on the POH tab, I see figures in the 50's. How is EPR calculated?
Sam,

The EPR (Early Pace Rating) and the SC Second Call Velocity numbers, and ranks for each - should be almost identical to each other. They are simply calculated in different ways. EPR is a component of the points based rating system (Total Pace Ratings - TPR) described in the book Pace Makes the Race, by Hambleton, Pizzolla, Schmidt, Sartin et al in 1991 ('an intro to the Sartin Methodology'). Essentially, a baseline 2nd call time (adjusted) in sprints and routes is given a 100 point rating, then times slower than that are less than 100 and times faster are greater than 100. The same 100 points basis is established for the 3rd Fraction, equalized at the various different 3rd fraction distances according to total race distance. The concept calculations described in PMTR are essentially what we use today in RDSS.

That EPR points rating still relies upon a 2nd call time (adjusted). The same 2nd call time is also expressed as a velocity - which is what is shown on the Velocity Tabs. The original Yellow Manual, and also Brohamer's Modern Pace Handicapping describe how to calculate velocities = feet per second values which are often in the 50's at the 2nd call point.

So both velocity-based, and points-based representations of 'average speed' during a race segment (e.g. from beginning to the 2nd call point) show the same thing - in different ways. The ranks of the different races, and horses, measured are the same. Also the same is the 2nd Call Computed Beaten Length number on the Segments screen. They ALL mean the same thing.

Additionally, for the EPR factor, when you look on the Primary Factors Tab, you will see numbers which represent difference from best (in percent), with 0.0% meaning: the best figure (i.e. of all a horse's PPs, or comparing all horses to each other, on the Analysis panel's Primary Tab). In addition to the same rank info you get from all the other 2nd call related factors, you also see the gap between the different lines. Example - a 2nd ranked EPR (or any other factor) with a gap of 0.5% is much closer to the best than a 2nd ranked EPR with a gap of 2.0.

Hope that helps.

Ted
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Old 12-11-2013, 03:18 PM   #20
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Thanks Ted. I have Modern Pace Handicapping and I understand how to calculate velocities. Now, with the help of your excellent explanation of EPR, I have a better understanding of the TPR + EL tab.

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