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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

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Old 06-15-2019, 12:49 PM   #1
Bill V.
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Saturday Monmouth Fulcrums

Race 1 is a 5.5 turf sprint
the only qualifier would be the 7

But there are no internals so there is no measurable fulcrum in race 1

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Old 06-15-2019, 01:04 PM   #2
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The 7

The seven tried to go wire to wire but faded badly in the stretch

The favorite, the only horse with a plus paceline at a comparable distance, surface but off over 200 days wins

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Old 06-15-2019, 01:09 PM   #3
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Race 2

Race 2

The only qualifier is the 6 horse

In a short field, The EPR is a mild 72 EPR

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Old 06-15-2019, 01:36 PM   #4
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When

When I saw this horse, off the big drop for Juarez at 1/9
I was correct in passing


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The fulcrum 6 was never involved in a slow 115 EP

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Old 06-15-2019, 01:41 PM   #5
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Race 3

This is the fulcrum with a 96 EPR

the 5 is close behind at 94 so the pace will be quick

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Old 06-15-2019, 01:54 PM   #6
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1 - 2

The 2 top qualifiers run away from the pace after being close at the second
call.

The exacta 3/5 comes in but the 3 is 1/5

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Old 06-15-2019, 02:02 PM   #7
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Race 4

Finally, it looks like something we can bet

Here is the fulcrum



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Old 06-15-2019, 02:28 PM   #8
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Result

the 3 and 5 run a close 112.40 well ahead of the group

The 3 goes on but the 5 fades

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Old 06-15-2019, 02:33 PM   #9
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Race 5

We are back to a turf sprint
This is the easy fulcrum with a 90 EPR and a E5

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Old 06-15-2019, 02:58 PM   #10
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The nine wins easy

The 9 takes the 5th

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