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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

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Old 12-28-2018, 09:48 AM   #1
mick
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GP10 28Dec18

My initial interest in this race was because my friend Don E (aka the tazzerbobo) owns #10 Rumbago. For some, Rumbago would be an immediate toss because he's 20-1 ML. However, this is a big field of chronic losers and Rumbago is lightly raced with 5 ITM finishes in 8 races. He also has 2 turf wins at GP. He's returning in 12 days after a poor showing on dirt and when I line through his two dirt starts, I see that he's 4 for 6 ITM on grass. Now my interest is piqued.
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Old 12-28-2018, 10:16 AM   #2
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There are certainly negatives which is why he's 20-1. His best races have been when he's on the lead and he's breaking from post position 10. Not good. However, most of the early speed in this race will scratch out as "Also Eligibles," leaving just the #7 who is an Early on turf. Those two should clear the field and be on the lead down the backstretch. At 12-1, #7 is also lightly raced and returning in 22 days after a credible 4th place finish in a 12-horse field on GP's turf. Can one of them hang on and win? The #11 (4-1) also interests me. He's a Sustained with a good late kick who seems to have found a home on turf. The #12, #9 and #3 are dismal with a combined record of 3 for 61.
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Old 12-28-2018, 10:26 AM   #3
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So, the plan is to make small win bets on #7 and #10 if they have double-digits odds at post; play a small exacta box with #7, #10, and #11; and play a bigger exacta #11 over #7 and #10 and backwheel it. If one of my Earlies win, I don't think the other will run second, but it could happen so that's why I'll box them.

Of course, they could all run out of the money, too.
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Old 12-28-2018, 11:35 AM   #4
raceman5
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Gp r10

Thanks for posting this race Mick. Me I like the Dec 6 Tandem race. The 1-5-6-7 come out of this race. A ton of speed even with the scratches. I think the 7 is going to get caught up in the speed dual. So I like 5-6. And box a 1-5-6 ex. box as the 1 is ML 20/1.

Bob
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Old 12-28-2018, 05:21 PM   #5
mick
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The #10 went off at 45-1 and the #7 at 32-1. They broke well, saved ground around the clubhouse turn and followed #1 down the backstretch. The #7 made a move on the turn, had a short lead at the head of the stretch and didn't give it up until the last furlong. Short of cashing a ticket, that's about all I could ask from those two longshots. My third horse, #11 (2-1), showed a nice turn of foot late and won, cruising to the wire.

That was fun and I appreciated Bob's comments. He was right in that the pace was a bit too fast for my Earlies. After 4 furlongs, the leader was :47 and change and I needed something more like :48 and a few ticks.
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Old 12-28-2018, 08:34 PM   #6
rmath
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GP race

Mick, did you notice that the 11 was the only horse that had all 4 numbers.
While I do not play Turf races this horse should win better than 50 % of the time.
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Old 12-29-2018, 08:40 AM   #7
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The 4 numbers refer to PL,BPP,CSR,VDC ranks on the RX screen. Horse that have a ranking in all 4 factors are a prime win horses. In the last 100 races I capped 66 were won by a horse with all 4 numbers. Another 13 were won by horses with 3 numbers.
Tim
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Old 12-29-2018, 09:31 AM   #8
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Thanks

Thanks LT1.
I left out which ratings I was refering to , just to see if anyone was curious enough to ask.
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Old 12-29-2018, 09:35 AM   #9
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Mick, It is always nice to see my efforts were not in vain.
You always did pay close attention to what ever we were discussing.

HAPPY NEW YEAR to everyone.

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Old 12-29-2018, 09:46 AM   #10
mick
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rmath View Post
Mick, It is always nice to see my efforts were not in vain.
You always did pay close attention to what ever we were discussing.

HAPPY NEW YEAR to everyone.

Rmath
Happy New Year, Richard.

And for the new members who don't know Richard, he's something special. Doc Sartin wrote him multiple times in the Follow Ups with his W-2Gs published.
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