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09-21-2008, 10:01 AM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,151
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Trainer Intent
I know there are many of you that feel every time the horse is entered that they are trying to win.But as you can see from this horse that is running in the 10th at Woodbine today it is not the case.The race is a 16,000 CLAIMER FOR 3 YEARS OLD AND UP.Notice where the horses 2 wins were and what distance and class also how the trainer went about setting up those wins.It is my feeling that people are spending too much time worrying about how the race will match up or their computer readouts rather then if the horse belongs in today's race.It doesnt matter if this horse wins or runs up the track I still believe I had a viable contender in today's race.
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09-21-2008, 10:31 AM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: NYC and San Diego
Posts: 627
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For ME, and I emphasize the ME, my first determination has to be whether the horse can be successful at today's conditions, most importantly the class level where it will run today. The other important issue for me is how it got there - in other words, reading the pp's from the bottom up ala Bob Purdy. What is the horse's "story", so to speak.
Is it a negative class drop? Is he moving up from a loss at a lower level - is there a reason why I may consider him today? Has he been running way above his head but he was dropped a bit last time and showed some signs of life and he's being dropped again today?Has he hit significant trouble in his last couple or has he been at the "wrong" distance/surface and now today he is a spot to run well? That's all I ask for - I then let EXDC do its thing. Again, for me, the matchup is important but just because the horse appears to win the matchup doesn't mean he's going to beat a field of allowance horses if he's been running at claiming 7500n3L. One has to be reasonable. However, let's say for Richie, class differences may not be an issue for him. To me, there's no magic here, just logic. No one gives away anything at the race track. Trainers prepare their horses all the time, depending what their objectives are. They give them a route or turf tuneup to get a bit more stamina and then cut them back to a dirt sprint shooting for the win. A trainer that mostly claims will use a different approach than a trainer who gets expensive and excellent stock and is not in a hurry to win. A trainer who bets may use a different approach than one who doesn't. They know the tracks condition book and what races may be carded so they plan accordingly. I don't get caught up in too much of that - if I think the horse is in a good position today and he is one of my choices, I will bet him at the proper odds for me. If I know the trainer is a 3% trainer and has been so for the 20 years I've been following the SoCal circuit, I will need significant odds or no bet. There will be better bets down the road, even if he adds a win to that 3%. One also needs to be wary of horses with a solid last race that are 2-17, 3-26, 4-40 - you get my drift. Why place your hard earned money on inconsistent animals? Class droppers have to be respected always and negative class droppers will beat you at even money on occassion but as Brohamer states, move on. Class risers off a loss, especially out of the money, are tough bets unless they have been claimed recently by a solid trainer or showed something in that loss (unusually high early speed, etc.). Most of my claiming winners come from droppers finding their proper level or horses that ran at today's level in their last. You also don't want them running at today's level for too long. A horse that won for 5000n2L may need a race or two at 5000n3L before he's ready to go for the win at that level. No major breakthroughs in the above comments, but to me, all else is secondary to the particular horse fitting today's conditions and can he attempt to do what he's asked to do today and put himself in position to win, as a win is never guaranteed in a stochastic, chaos filled event. If there are fans of the show Hunter with Freddy Dryer out there - "works for me". Last edited by lsosa54; 09-21-2008 at 10:37 AM. |
09-21-2008, 10:58 AM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,151
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Very well done.I know this is off the topic but if you wouldnt mind doing so I would be interested to see how you go about using EXDC.
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09-21-2008, 11:15 AM | #4 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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who is in the race
Hello Jeff
and group Do you know When a trainer enters a horse in a race, Do they know who else will be entered into the race ??? My example I did the race In my opinion the two has a chance with a good sustained running style and the software I use has calculated it to be the # 1 FX horse there looks to be some early pace to this race I.m seeing a 22.0 and 45.0 projected pace The 2 is the # 1 APV horse and it has a strong (in this field) Class rating of 1.51 This tells me that 2 horse has run well in higher class races My example is the 11 horse Is this horse who is rated just a little better than the 2 healthy ? It was claimed for 25,000 won the race than was laid off I failed in two comebacks at 50000 and 32,000 now today it is entered for $16000 third back off the layoff Something I think about maybe a good trainer's horse (#2) runs against one or more horses in the race that just who knows what to expect ?? I think the 2 and 3 are the horses in this race but the 11 is the key GS Bill |
09-21-2008, 03:23 PM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: NYC and San Diego
Posts: 627
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09-21-2008, 04:25 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,151
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Bill,No the trainer wont know until the entries are drawn.
Isosa,Sounds good |
09-21-2008, 04:39 PM | #7 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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09-21-2008, 05:46 PM | #8 |
Grade 2
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: near Ellis Park
Posts: 98
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Very, very nice Jeff! Wish I had read your post about 30 mins before I did!
Gary |
09-21-2008, 07:42 PM | #9 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: New Jersey, USA
Posts: 471
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In my experience, T.I. is an important factor to consider in cheap and very cheap claiming races.
Regards, Jon
__________________
"Free your mind and the profits will follow." |
09-21-2008, 08:34 PM | #10 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,151
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Gary,Thanks,the exacta of 144.00 was very hittable as the 3 and 10 were the only horses in form that could compete in this class.Jeff
Last edited by shoeless; 09-21-2008 at 08:43 PM. |
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