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Old 01-01-2013, 02:04 PM   #1
Bill V.
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Goals for 2013

Now that its the new year and the RDSS contest is over
I have gone back to the 70's, The "Me" decade

My goals for 2013

I will.....

1 bet only races were I fully understand the conditions
2. bet only races when I have 1 or 2 horses with a clear advantage
in pace set up, acceptable odds, and rankings in the top 2
on my program, If I see a early advantage horse with poor readouts
I will be that early horse
3 bet win only spliting my bet 60/40
4. I will bet very few races but work many races
5, I will keep records
6. I will focus on only a few tracks, and only on tracks like Parx that run year round

I will not bet any exactas or trifectas

I will not bet any race where I say "if my win bets don't win, this exacta will save me "

The RDSS contest showed me how betting in volume is
a killer and how betting under pressure or for action is a
bankroll killer

Wishing you all the best with your goals

Bill
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Old 01-01-2013, 03:02 PM   #2
lone speed
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill V. View Post
Now that its the new year and the RDSS contest is over
I have gone back to the 70's, The "Me" decade

My goals for 2013

I will.....

1 bet only races were I fully understand the conditions
2. bet only races when I have 1 or 2 horses with a clear advantage
in pace set up, acceptable odds, and rankings in the top 2
on my program, If I see a early advantage horse with poor readouts
I will be that early horse
3 bet win only spliting my bet 60/40
4. I will bet very few races but work many races
5, I will keep records
6. I will focus on only a few tracks, and only on tracks like Parx that run year round

I will not bet any exactas or trifectas

I will not bet any race where I say "if my win bets don't win, this exacta will save me "

The RDSS contest showed me how betting in volume is
a killer and how betting under pressure or for action is a
bankroll killer

Wishing you all the best with your goals

Bill
Great New Year's resolution as it pertains to our horseracing endeavors, Bill....


We must make plans in order to succeed or we are doomed to fail.....Your resolutions are a great reality check and dependent on each person's personal goals and most importantly, Comfort Zone.......

I remember reading in a follow up issue where Doc Sartin was talking to Barry Meadows in a race book. Meadows was watching a race where he had a vested interest.... Sartin initiated a conversation when Meadows raised his hand and stop the Doc in mid-sentence so Meadows can continue to watch the race that was running. I do not remember the exact amount of wager that Meadows made, but it was more than several thousands to win on the nose of a steed in a low-priced claiming race.

Nowadays, this type of wager and the amount wagered would have a huge impact on the mutuel pool that one person would be lowering the win odds and not winning his fair odds. If one person is wagering at small tracks nowadays, it would not take much of a wager before one starts impacting the mutuel pools. Any form of Kelly betting or partial Kelly wagering could not be as effective at tracks where the mutuel pools are smaller than in the past.

I remember when I was amazed that there were over $300,000 wagered in the win mutuel pool on a maiden Reckoner trained by Joe Manzi at Santa Anita. This amount was only for Reckoner in the win pool....Currently, we will only see these amounts on big racing days like the Breeder's Cup or on Derby days.....Wagering is so diluted with the myriad of wagering options and wagering pools.

Great resolution..it sheds light on a big reality check....do we want to play the ponies or do we want to profit from our endeavors...It is a business, where we are the ones making the daily decisions on how we run our business. We must focus on our strengths and gradually improve on our weakness...(practice makes perfect) Each person has a different "modus operandi" and different levels of "comfort zone", but the general thesis is the same. We all want to profit from our endeavors but with a "plan of action".

Thanks for the post, Bill


Good skills to all and Happy New Year....
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Old 01-01-2013, 07:37 PM   #3
shoeless
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Bill,

Take this for what it's worth from someone that has been using
conditions as a arsenol in has handicapping for over 40 years


Use them as a tool not an end all be all.


Distance and surface changes can be just as important.

Jeff
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Old 01-02-2013, 12:01 PM   #4
alydar_ David
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Slippery Slope of New Years Resolutions:

1st Resolution: Go to the gym every day.
2nd: Feel guilty for not going.
3rd: Pie
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Old 01-02-2013, 04:24 PM   #5
Bill V.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alydar_David View Post
Slippery Slope of New Years Resolutions:

1st Resolution: Go to the gym every day.
2nd: Feel guilty for not going.
3rd: Pie

Happy new year Jeff, Lone Speed
and David

Things went very well on day 1 I didn't want it to be a resolution because
As David aludes to they often don't last
I made it my goal ... A goal is something to strive for
and with hard work and my stuborn ways hopefully I will get there

Jeff I think understanding the conditions will help me with my pace line
and contender selections
One of Doc's guidelines is to let a horses APV determin how far
back you go for a line Understanding the conditions of the race
will help me make calls on excusing the last race and moving to the next
comparable line

Last edited by Bill V.; 01-02-2013 at 04:29 PM.
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Old 01-02-2013, 04:49 PM   #6
shoeless
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good luck with it
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Old 01-02-2013, 07:02 PM   #7
Hoof 11
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1 - Win the PAIHL contest

2 - Go on a date with Rosario Dawson

3 - Play defence for the Leafs

4 - Introduce Dalton McGuinty to the back side of a horse

5 - Watch Uncaptured win the Derby


There are others i could mention but they are unrealistic
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Old 01-03-2013, 10:47 AM   #8
alydar_ David
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Originally Posted by hoof 11 View Post
"...there are others i could mention but they are unrealistic "
lol
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