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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 01-23-2013, 11:38 PM   #11
For The Lead
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PRX race 4 1.21.13

This is an interesting race for the following reason.
THERE IS NOT AN EARLY HORSE AMONG THE CONTENDERS!
Just look at the running lines.
What I'm going to say next applies to ALL TYPES of races. When you end up with nothing but pressers and closers among you contenders, one of them will rank #1 early. One of them will show best on the F1 section of the segments screen. One of them will show fastest on EPR on the TPR screen.
Does this mean that is the early horse in the race?
ABSOLUTELY NOT!!

Early horses are early horses.
OTHER THAN early horses are OTHER THAN early!!!

So in this race there is no early horse to "zero in on", even though the winner showed best on F1 on the segments screen. In this race the BL/BL may be the right place to look. In this case it was. The winner actually came from off the pace to win the race.

One last note. Check the class on the running lines screen. The winner is the only horse among the contenders that is dropping down a couple of classes for this race. This is always a help to maidens.

The winner, #4, paid $6.20.
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Old 01-23-2013, 11:39 PM   #12
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PRX race 6 1.21.13

My contenders did not produce the winner of this race.
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Old 01-24-2013, 12:02 AM   #13
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Recap

So just to recap, the ten races mentioned here were run on 2 consecutive days, at 3 different tracks on 2 different surfaces.

The total return of the 7 winners comes to $89.20.
Some would have been "high odds" bets, while some may have been "low odds" bets.
Either way I'm sure you can see these were profitable races.
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Old 01-24-2013, 10:06 AM   #14
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For The Lead, thanks for a great post about maidens. A lot of us do avoid those maidens. You are totally right about that. But I recognize that there are opportunities there, since there is never a shortage of maiden races, and their mutual is not that bad, compared to the non-maiden races that are more predictable by the public, and therefore overbet.
Thanks to your post, I am willing to take the dive. I will let you know when I catch my first big one. Have a good day.
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Old 01-25-2013, 06:06 AM   #15
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anybody

Did anybody work yeaterdays Santa Anita maiden race using FTL's outline

If you had you would have been very happy
The track was wet/fast and no turf

Bill
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Old 01-25-2013, 09:10 AM   #16
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I'd be interested in seeing your stats for EP regardless of running style.

For sprints, I suspect you'll find significantly more winners showed a top EP rating in MCL than MSW.
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Old 01-25-2013, 11:44 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill V. View Post
Did anybody work yeaterdays Santa Anita maiden race using FTL's outline

If you had you would have been very happy
The track was wet/fast and no turf

Bill
You're right, Bill.

I wasn't going to post the maiden races from SA yesterday because it really isn't a study of what it takes from a running style point of view, which is how I started this thread.
However, it is still worthwhile posting from a "contender selection" point of view. I'm just going to post up the "original" screen for each race.

RACE #2....none of my contenders won this race.

RACE #4....here's the screen shot. The winner, #12, paid $35.60.

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RACE #5....here's the screen shot. The winner, #3, paid $3.40.

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RACE #8....here's the screen shot. The winner, #11, paid $16.00.
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For those not keeping track, this makes 10 winners from 14 races with a total return of $144.20.
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Old 01-26-2013, 08:37 AM   #18
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LRL 9th Race

Thought I would jump in with this one
from yesterday. I only had 2 contenders.
I wanted to thank FTL this was an excellent post
he started.
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Old 01-26-2013, 08:39 AM   #19
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Old 02-01-2013, 08:43 PM   #20
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Look for it

It took a while I had some success with maiden earlys but I wanted to wait for the LONE E8
I got it tonight race 6 from Penn

I only bet $2 but 14/1 is nice
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