My day at the races - Using FTL's Guidelines

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Here is the thing

I hope you know the true me, from our days last summer sitting together at
Saratoga, that I certainly do not mean any disrespect.

Tom B, Col Bruce Jorgeson and Vic Palermo were at that 93 seminar,
I was not but I have heard the audio of many of the seminars as well as
the video seminar. In all the seminars several teachers speak. From what I have heard, and read and heard right from Doc's mouth is. "you will hear about several different methods during this seminar, some of these presenters will present there own methods, They work for them The fact that they I may or may not agree with for my own or other teaching members methods is not important . What is important is that they have proven to me they are consistent winners using their methods."

i believe if FTL also was at that 93 seminar as a teaching member
and maybe he was ? Nobody knows who FTL really is .
If he made his presentation of his guidelines. If you believed in his presentation just like you believe in beating half the field is a valid guideline
would you use line 2? or make the 4 a non win contender ?

I added line 2 for horse 4 Sofia
It makes her a contender but what reason would I have to go to the third rated horse ?

This is another topic I hope FTL will address

Bless

Bill

Attachment 45607

Ah, the decision making process. Always a tough one.

Although I never attempted to teach decision making, there were times when I just naturally gave my opinion on certain races since the race offered such a good learning experience. Here is one such race. http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9406 The thread is titled “Horses Don’t Run In A Straight Line”. EVERYONE should read it.

This race offers one way of making a decision. The decision has nothing to do with BL/BL, Rx3, VDC or any one of a number of other things. The “decision” in this case, is made on the basis of horse racing knowledge and handicapping. And, unless you can find another race just like it, don’t bother trying to make this particular decision in some other race. Decisions are sometimes “unique”.

Let me move on to RDSS. The whole concept of RDSS is to provide the user with information. Each user is free to employ any of the information provided in any way they see fit.
In the races I reviewed I marked certain things in RDSS that I believed pointed to the winner. I did that as a means of helping RDSS users with their decision making. And even within RDSS, there are many different things that could be used in the decision making process.

As an example, using the race at GP, once you added the #4 horse off of line 2, that horse became third choice “IF” one was using Rx3. However, for those using BL/BL the #4 horse would become the #1 choice. Personally, I would not be looking at either of those things. I would be more inclined to look at the “RS” column. In that column the #7 horse stands out head and shoulders above the rest of the field as an early horse. Of course this would lead me to other areas of RDSS that would help support that finding. And these are just a few of the possibilities. So you can see how it can become confusing.

Although I never advocated one decision making process over another, I think it is clear to anyone reading my writings that I favor early horses, therefore, my decision making is based on that fact and is always based on handicapping rather than rankings that put horses in some kind of final order.

The decision process is up to the individual handicapper and the methods they employ in making decisions. As an example, not everyone uses RDSS, so they would be employing some other means for their decisions.
It is fairly clear to me that NEIL S, who uses basic TPR numbers, has determined what his decision making process should be and has been successful with it. That is what each person needs to do. Find a decision making process that works for them. Whatever your decision making process is, be consistent with it.

[Bill V.]

Thanks, FTL and Neil and Tim

I fetched the result chart for the Dec 20 GP race

It's more clear to me to understand that line 2 is a (+)
and fits the "usable" line FTL writes about.


FTL As far as readouts and decision making I mostly use
the sticks on the TPR Early - Late screen
I have been a fan of the RX screen since Oct of 2017
The reasons is It goes a few steps farther than BLBL
Sure there are many readouts on RDSS and some get horse rated in better or worse positions.
In this race at GP on Sunday I am glad I went with the RX screen
I got the winner right on top , I am more inclined to use the number 1 ranked horse on RX than BLBL because it takes more factors into account
BLBL horse # 1 has over the years in my records proven to be less successful than the second-ranked horse, My third-ranked BLBL horse is the best value position.

But RX is more in line, In my 1700 race study since Oct 17th
My RX 3 horse ranked first wins 30 % including ties
VDC gets the winner #1 30% but this includes many more ties
BL/BL only gets the winner #1 26%

[Mitch44]

I agree with FTL on the decision making process. I do not accept rankings blindly and analyze each contender and the context of the race for final decisions. This at times causes me to demote some horses and elevate others.


We learn through experience the importance of NTL horses that won't get the lead, fine points of % Med, counter energy etc. and along the way things proven through record keeping . Yes some of it is outside of Sartin. Sartin himself freelanced because he saw the value and incorporated it such as DRF speed rating plus variant to name just one.


Even with all that money management is important etc. Its a gestalt of many variables and each race is different.


In the race above to me the 4 was a contender and I would have used L 2 however I saw in Bill's snapshot that the 7 won which was the #1 contender with what I use for contenders. I can not honestly say which two horses I would have bet before the race was run.


Once again contenders and pace line selection prove their importance. They'll put you in the game but final decisions must be made before the start and that is a whole different process than after a race.


Best of luck,
Mitch44