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Old 08-25-2021, 11:39 AM   #1
Join Date: Jul 2014
Posts: 33
Tampa Bay Downs and Turf Racing

I'm basically a newbie, I originally signed up and sent a few messages in 2015, and then left because of work. I'm now retired (like my user name). I noticed that tampa bay downs opened for two days about a month ago and then closed and there was no information about what, why etc? I live in Naples, FL and it's by 2nd go to track after Gulfstream. Does anybody know what happened and if it will be reopening in the near future, or not?

My second question is about track profiles and modeling. I've spent several days getting up to speed with RDSS and what's going on among the messages.
It's not clear to me whether it is still a good idea to have a track profile with the EPS statistics and lengths behind aat the first and second calls information or if RDSS takes care of that by its system of play itself. Should I still be keeping a track profile?

My third is about turf racing. I've seen a fair amount of races shown oiw which the RDSS shows how to handicap dirt races. I've not seen a lot of turf races shown. When I made my original posts in 2015 I talked about finding a lot of info that showed that the 3rd fraction was dominant in turf racing. I'm not sure what else to model in terms of factors for turf racing.

Last, does anybody have any modeling info on the profile for turf race winners in terms of factors? I did see a post by Bill Varone talking about the factors that he uses to determine turf race winners but nothing else. I'M INTERESGTED IN ermath's approach (4 factors) and would be interested in hearing besides the 4 factors what else is he or anyone else monitoring in terms of turf races. Any help would be appreciated.

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Old 08-25-2021, 12:13 PM   #2
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Location: Valley Stream NY
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Hi and welcome back. In regards to your modeling question I model the 7 primary factors from the BL/BL SCREEN PLUS vdc,%med, and 3f. I keep both win and place models by dist and surface. Your selection of pacelines and contenders will determine what factors win at the tracks you play. You will also be establishing a minimum 3f needed to win at each dist.
As for a track profile there is a current thread up in the Sartin 101 Section by Bill Lyster I myself have also posted a thread about how 2nd call bl can be used to eliminate contenders for win. Hopefully this helps you out a bit.
Trust but verify

Last edited by Lt1; 08-25-2021 at 12:16 PM.
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Old 08-25-2021, 02:48 PM   #3
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I answered a couple of your questions in your other post.

You don't need a model or a track profile in order to win. I don't keep or use either. Sartin in his later teaching moved away from these concepts along with other changes. Even if you kept these yours's would not duplicate somebody else's, because of the way you pick contenders and pace lines.

Now that your coming back and beginning a fresh start, I would recommend my Beginners and Refresher Post and threads. Here's the link to get it:


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