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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

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Old 05-12-2016, 06:22 PM   #1
ClockerDan
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Preakness

Is it to early for preditions? Nyquist will face a few speedsters in this race. I am going to box. Nyquist with Uncle Lino and Collected

Anyone else think someone is going to beat Nyquist ? Ty have a great day. Dan
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Old 05-15-2016, 11:36 AM   #2
Mark
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Preakness

The only question in my view is, "How much did the Derby take out of Nyquist?"
He is not as big as American Pharoah and looks to be lighter boned. He doesn't carry much weight and I would be interested in how much he has lost since the Derby. But betting him will not have any value.
The horse I am expecting a good race from is Exaggerator. Here are his preDerby pps:
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The race that sells me on this horse is the 7f Sa race on Feb 15th. This is a fast horse. He is also amenable to rating as we saw in the Derby and his Derby prep. How many horses in the Preakness could stay within 1+ lengths of 22.5 - 44.5 -108.6 - 120.7? His connections feel that he has to lay way off the pace at these classic distances and they learned something in the Derby but regardless of the Preakness pace, I would expect him to lay no farther back than mid pack. The energy he reserves early allows him to POWER MOVE late and without question he was moving fastest of all in the Derby down the stretch, passing 7 or 8 horses. He can also handle any kind of surface.
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Old 05-15-2016, 01:43 PM   #3
DanBoals
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Hey Mark,

Keep in mind that it was Nyquist that beat him in that 7f race at Santa Anita, setting those fractions. I underestimated Exaggerator in the Derby, and lost the exacta because of it, he is truly a great horse, but Nyquist has beaten him from in front two times now. I just do not think he will be able to beat Nyquist in the Preakness without some serious racing luck.

Dan
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Old 05-15-2016, 02:16 PM   #4
Mark
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The question is, "How much did the Derby take out of Nyquist?"
No question he is the faster horse but I won't take 6/5 on him to repeat the effort.
I also don't know who else will be in the Preakness. Nyquist has the perfect Running style as he is equally comfortable on the lead or pressing. However, I do think that Exaggerator's connections have finally figured out where their horse has to be early so as not to have so much ground to make up but at the same time reserve enough energy to make that POWER MOVE. I would expect him to be tucked in behind the Pressers, 5 to 8 lengths back early. Will know more when we can project the early pace.
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Old 05-15-2016, 02:43 PM   #5
ClockerDan
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You guys don't think Bobby B will have this collected horse amped up and Uncle Lino ran a 1:40 last out faster than Nyquist and Exaggerator by 3-4 second which equals 5-6 lengths I believe. Thanks guys appreciate your opinions
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Old 05-15-2016, 03:52 PM   #6
lone speed
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ClockerDan View Post
You guys don't think Bobby B will have this collected horse amped up and Uncle Lino ran a 1:40 last out faster than Nyquist and Exaggerator by 3-4 second which equals 5-6 lengths I believe. Thanks guys appreciate your opinions
Just a suggestion:

BE CAREFUL of any assumptions of track speed:

One of the tenets of the Methodology: KNOW THY TRACK


Basically, Los Alamitos will produce faster times at the distance of mile and 1/16th than times at Santa Anita because of the longer "run-up distance" before the tele-timer starts.

At Los Alamitos: 104 feet before tele-timer starts
At Santa Anita: 70 feet before tele-timer starts

Secondly, the final time is a dependent function of the early pace exertion.

Uncle Lino walked on the early pace in the California Chrome stakes race at Los Alamitos. Uncle Lino may be a contender, but one should consider if Uncle Lino will get away with soft early pace fractions in the next race.

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Here is an example race at Santa Anita at the same distance.
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Old 05-15-2016, 03:53 PM   #7
Mark
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Preakness

Apparently that last race was Uncle Lino's first as a gelding so he raced with the ultimate equipment change. No question a game effort. So will he improve off that race? Whose to say! Previously, he was beaten handily in his confrontations with Exaggerator and Nyquist. Exaggerator just smoked him in the Santa Anita Derby in the slop.
Los Alamitos is a newly extended mile track. Previously it had undergone an extension from 1/2 mile to 6f. The food is great in the Turf Club. Before the closing of Hollywood this was primarily a Quarterhorse track. Since they sold the property to the North to make a golf course the only way they could lengthen it was to lengthen the backstretch by ballooning it outward. Very weird. Times don't transfer well to other mile ovals. I believe he is in deep water. The horse he beat had never placed in a graded stake and was entered from a couple OC80k races. The fractions were ordinary.
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Old 05-15-2016, 04:03 PM   #8
Mark
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Run Up

70ft to 104ft is not really a large disparity. Probably less than two strides. And horses are not breaking in routes as in sprints don't break driving if they want to be around at the finish. Where you get significant differences are at Churchill at 6f where the run up is 180ft as compared to most tracks at 50ft or so. Also the Del Mar mile has a 180 ft run up and Gulfstream 7.5f turf races have a run up of 260+ft. The biggest difference with Los Al is the track configuration. It favors horses on the lead because there are few true straight stretches. Kind of like a Bull Ring.
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Old 05-15-2016, 05:09 PM   #9
lone speed
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Originally Posted by Mark View Post
70ft to 104ft is not really a large disparity. Probably less than two strides. And horses are not breaking in routes as in sprints don't break driving if they want to be around at the finish. Where you get significant differences are at Churchill at 6f where the run up is 180ft as compared to most tracks at 50ft or so. Also the Del Mar mile has a 180 ft run up and Gulfstream 7.5f turf races have a run up of 260+ft. The biggest difference with Los Al is the track configuration. It favors horses on the lead because there are few true straight stretches. Kind of like a Bull Ring.
I stand corrected. Mark's explanation regarding the track's configuration is best; but I stand by the fact that the final time is dependent on the exertion of the early pace.

In fact, I will postulate that Uncle Lino ran the same "energy exertion" race in the Los Alamitos race as his race in the Santa Anita Derby up to the mile marker.

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Uncle Lino's paceline from the Santa Anita Derby up till the mile marker:

22.0 2F 45.1 4F 110 6F and 136.1 mile time

2.5L behind at 2F; 3L behind at 4F; 1.5L behind at 6F; and 4.5lengths behind at the mile marker or

Uncle Lino ran 45.4 for 4furlongs and 110.1 for 6 furlongs and 137+ for the mile.

At Los Alamitos:

Uncle Lino ran 6 ticks slower at the first fraction or 47.0 for 4furlongs therefore according to Huey Mahl and Jim Bradshaw; one unit of energy at the first call equals two units of energy at the finish, we expect Uncle Lino to run 12 ticks faster at the mile marker.

If we subtract 12 ticks from the final time of 137.0; we arrive at 134.3(fifths)

Actual fractions for Uncle Lino in the Los Alamitos race:

47.0 for 4F 111.0 for 6F and a mile time of 134.3(fifths).

Great answers, Mark...
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Old 05-15-2016, 06:10 PM   #10
ClockerDan
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So you don't think Uncle Lino stands a chance? What about Collected? Love the blood lines
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