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02-07-2016, 03:25 PM | #1 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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TP Match up contest race
In Teds post race comments for yesterdays Match Up contest race, Ted shows a Binder Improver for horse # 3 - who placed
Teds lines and contender choices lead to the BI. I do not get the improver but I do get the 3 strong on Phase 1 and its the counter energy. The winner # 12 was a popular choice for the contest and the public, Thee 3 was a good exacta play |
02-11-2016, 03:25 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 695
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curiousity
Bill ..
Thanks for presenting your thoughts about the "Binder Effect" in this particular race. Rdss got the winner of this race in the top two on VDC rankings so maybe it's a moot point to carry further with the discussion of this race but the curiosity in me wanted to see how Rdss handled the race with a different makeup of contenders. Specifically, with the addition of the other speed in the race which you did not include for your own personal reasons. Nothing wrong with that perspective. Everyone is entitled to their own methodology of paceline decisions and contender selections. I am referring to the exclusion of the #10 horse Dollar Doblado. I was curious how would have Rdss handled the early pace matchup between #2 Adamor and #10 Dollar Doblado. I am aware that Ted has a different "variant" configuration than your Rdss configuration. Bottom line is that I wanted to see how "synaptic" is Rdss for this particular race match-up. Whether #2 Adamor gets pushed lower in its rankings for this match-up. |
02-12-2016, 04:24 AM | #3 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
Variant, post and LPR
Hi Lone speed
I'm glad i put this post up here in the selections area. I did not want to step on Ted's analysis of the 10 horse. I threw out the 10 horse both visually ( match up ) and from using phase 1 . Plus marks for horse 10. excellent works, pace fast pace last race. negatives, Post position, wild variant -27. Hawthorn track faster than TP? All these negatives lead me not use line 1 because of its consistent 84ish LPR I figured because it being in post 10, It might not get the easy lead So it would be in position like line 2 or 3 and if anything its LPR would go down. For the Match UP - Early , race is Other Than Early. Now the 10 is out For Phase 1. it is too low on TPR. Last edited by Bill V.; 02-12-2016 at 04:27 AM. |
02-12-2016, 09:04 AM | #4 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Interference
The 10 also had a troubled break
But I made a decision so that's what I saw. Watch out for "Dollar" if they bring it right back Stable mail . Last edited by Bill V.; 02-12-2016 at 09:11 AM. |
02-12-2016, 11:38 AM | #5 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 695
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Consistency in Paceline and Contender selections
Quote:
Bill.. As always, thanks for taking the time to write a detailed explanation of your workup of this race and your thinking process as you went through your paceline selection routine. Whether it's a $5K claiming race or a Grade 1 Belmont Stakes race, your procedures are consistent and structured. You do not get emotionally attached to any pacelines or any contenders. It seems that you have a structured routine in your work up of a race; Phase 1 analysis with detailed attention to a paceline energy distribution and noted detailed attention to a race's variant and post position. I recalled that when Bay Meadows carded races at a flat mile on its main track, the placement of the starting gate was near the first turn so any horses on the outside post positions were going to be forced 4 or 5 wide or more, going into the first turn coming out of the starting gate. An early speed horse who drew the inner post positions and who might be a tad slower than another early speed horse, drawn on the outer post positions, would have a big advantage being near the rail versus being forced to race so wide going into the first turn. Regardless, thanks for your time in presenting your thought process in this particular match-up. |
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02-12-2016, 09:53 PM | #6 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
Mixing
Thanks lone speed
I can throw out horses like the 10 when I use the phase 1 method. The numbers are velocity based so each horses numbers are it's own . With energy based numbers the readouts change depending on the other horses numbers. So yes I knew the 10 would be involved, but since I eliminated it for the win I did not enter it on my original work up . |
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