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Old 02-22-2020, 11:35 AM   #1
rdiam
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AQU 2/22/20 Late p5 Carryover/Full Card

AQU 2/22/20 Late p5 Carryover/Full Card

$79,672 carryover in late p5 today at AQU:

r1: 4-3-5: chalky, 4 has best figs, 3 needs to control early pace, 5 closes

r2: 7-4-1: chalky, 7 will press and close, 4 needs to close, 1 might steal on lead

r3: 3-2-5: chalky, 3 is well meant FTS, three of seven are FTS

r4: 6-2-4: chalky, only four horses after scratches

START OF LATE p5 (50 cent min), 3:20 ET Post

r5: 6-4-7-5: chalky, but if can beat the 4 might find a price

r6: 1-3-4-2 chalky, but a bunch of cripples

r7: 1-4-5: wide open, 5 needs the lead, if can't get it opens up for 1 or 4

r8: 1-2-5: chalky, 2 needs to control pace, 1 has best figs

r9: 8-5-9-3: wide open, a bunch of cripples, 8 might steal on the lead

Good luck.

Richard
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Old 02-22-2020, 12:39 PM   #2
Bill V.
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Skill

Good Luck / Skill to you
Richard

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Old 02-22-2020, 12:45 PM   #3
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Good luck Richard.
Tim
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Old 02-22-2020, 01:15 PM   #4
Mitch44
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Hope you make some $$$$$$ today Richard.


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Old 02-22-2020, 01:35 PM   #5
raceman5
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Good

Luck, hope the 288.00 investment pays big for you.

Bob
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Old 02-22-2020, 02:26 PM   #6
rmath
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Richard.
Best of luck and good skill on your pick-5.
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Old 02-23-2020, 10:20 AM   #7
rdiam
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Results:

9 races, 9 winners, BUT not a single winner pays over $8.70

4 #1s: 2.90, 7.50, 2.60, 5.00
4 #2s: 5.10, 8.70, 3.70, 6.80
1 #3: 7.00

5 $1 ex: 4.35, 12.40, 3.10, 22.30, 17.70
2 $0.50 tri:4.10, 44.25

8 $1 dd: 4.05, 13.20, 6.80, 7.30, 13.00, 14.40, 7.00, 3.70
7 $1 p3s: 18.80, 23.10, 39.75, 23.40, 56.25, 22.70, 19.00

2 $0.50 p4: 43.75, 35.37
2 $0.50 p5: 81.87, 178.00
1 $0.20 JP p6: 47.10

Way too much chalk today to make any $, even with the late p5 carryover.

Richard
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Old 02-23-2020, 11:11 AM   #8
gandalf380
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that kind of day illustrates you cannot make money in multirace bets unless you have at least one opinion in a race that differs from the crowd. In a pick-5 you made need 2 or 3.
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Old 02-23-2020, 12:26 PM   #9
Mitch44
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I disagree Charlie, its nice to get a good price in a combinations of or a series of bets.

As I stated before with numerous horizonal bets, one has to cut the extension (cost or outlay) by using a single or getting a race down to 2 horses (preferably a single or two races with only two horses in a pick 6).

We can't control the prices but we can control our betting and construction of tickets. Even if one does a SWAG or WAG for a race the reduced extension allows us even with a loss to play more P6's for the same amount of money or cost.

If you can't get at least one race down to 2 horses than your just guessing and probably should stay out of the bet. Of course if your pockets are deep and your bank is large than what the hell let it rip.

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Old 02-23-2020, 03:46 PM   #10
rdiam
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I always try to classify a race as "chalky" (= likely to be won by top 2-3 favorites) or "wide open" (= not likely to won by top 2-3 favorites).

In the p5 sequence, there were 3 "chalky" classifications and 2 "wide open" classifications, but the anticipated wide open races did not run that way. Generally, when betting horizontals, best if fewer than half of the races would be classified as "chalky".

In addition, as I have stated elsewhere, when the early part of the sequence starts off chalky, you will have a lot of company still alive in the pool as the later races are run, and the payoffs will rarely beat a win parlay. Would have been much better if the early races were won by longer shots.

Richard
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