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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ... |
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02-25-2019, 07:03 PM | #11 | |
always learning
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Minneapolis / Rancho Santa Fe
Posts: 277
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Quote:
7 of 11 were 1 horse bet wins, 9 of 11 (races) 2 horse bet, wins. Did horribly (or would have) if I had bet exotic pools. I'll try to make notes this week, as I get the data from those races put in my data files, and comment about each race and what I was thinking. |
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02-25-2019, 09:07 PM | #12 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 101
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turf route method
Dorianmode
Your success with turf route races is excellent. Can you share your handicapping thought process and/or method that resulted in your recent wins? thanks |
02-27-2019, 08:57 AM | #13 | |
Grade 3
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 50
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Quote:
Thank you for your generous offer. |
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03-02-2019, 12:37 PM | #14 |
always learning
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Minneapolis / Rancho Santa Fe
Posts: 277
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I've been thinking about what to say about how I approach turf racing. In general it's not any different than the methodology approaches racing in general, but turf racing just happens to pay better, as I said above.
I have learned a few things that are worth noting. First, structured handicapping is key.. so you must be able to reproduce what you did in a race you won, in the next race. That means you *must* have a profile. I don't have a different one for every track. (I'd like to start a discussion in another thread about how much data is optimum, as in my opinion, just adding another race to a profile that already has races in it, isn't going to help much. "How many races is best ?" is the question. So now I would only put another race in my win profile, if the winner was pretty much first in the important read-outs.) Theoretically this issue could be done based on which horse came in first, OR it could be done according to, in which race the payout was highest. They are not the same. One advantage of putting in all the races, is you could filter them, using the Excel filtering function ... and see which works best. So I eventually do put all the races in a profile, but I don't use the big one (profile) for win (one horse or two-horse dutch) wagering. To be honest I have built myself a stats "package" in Excel, into which I paste the RDSS export profile, which then automatically computes the numbers I want. I doubt I could say how that works, exactly. In general it computes the difference of today's runners from the averages my profile computes, and "weights" them according to the averages in the profile. So if the profile says that VDC is an important predictor, then the top VDCs in today's race would get weighted accordingly. So make a profile, and use it. The second really important thing I've found is that the TrackMaster adjusted speed ratings are very useful in turf route racing. I've tried a few variations of hpw to use these. What I mean is that I construct a CSR much like NewPace. You can use the 4 race paceline tool, (or the "all pacelines" tool in RDSS to get at the raw data for this. Hopefully in a future version of RDSS there will be a way to pick however many lines, and which ones one wants, for the CSR. The key to this working, as you MUST look through all the horses, and look at ALL the lines chosen, and select and de-select appropriate pacelines. For example, if a horse has the 4 most recent SR's of 65, 85, 83, 86 ... you must look at what happened in the last race. Why did it only earn a 65 ? Was it bumped at the gate ? Did it just have a bad day ? Was it part of a form cycle that was not improving ? So look at the trip tab. If there was a reason, and the horse "normally" runs according to the other SRs, replace the 65 with (CNTL-click) another more representative race. The majority of the time, no changes are necessary ... but when a change is necessary, it absolutely makes the difference in winning the race, or not. So look closely at the SRs, and integrate them with your profile. What I want to see, is the top of what comes from *reference to the profile* confirmed by the speed ratings. If that doesn't happen, I might pass the race. I suppose that's clear a mud. Last edited by Dorianmode; 03-02-2019 at 12:43 PM. |
03-05-2019, 10:45 PM | #15 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
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Update
I just completed a 100 race test on Turf races with 10 or more entries.( all are routes)
93 winners in contenders 78 exactas 70 tris. My top two final horses have won 65 races Rmath |
03-06-2019, 06:22 AM | #16 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Excellent study Richie. It just doesn't get much better than that. Very good stats.
Mitch44 |
03-06-2019, 06:36 AM | #17 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,144
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Nice work Rich.
Tim
__________________
Trust but verify |
03-06-2019, 06:40 AM | #18 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Dorianmode: In reference to your post #14. This is a take on what Tom Brohammer did to get the proper pace line. That is he would line out all races on the incorrect surface and distance. It leaves a much clearer picture to get the proper pace line.
This procedure would be an excellent tool for RDSS to adopt and or incorporate. As you say in the CSR rating and pace line selection it does not consider the distance or surface. Being able to a make a rating considering both distance and surface would make a much better rating and would greatly enhance the effectiveness of selection of pace lines and make other factors such as the CSR rating more effective. I've talked to Lt1 (Tim) and Rickie Mathie about the greater effectiveness of tailoring what is in a horse's chart to today's conditions for greater effectiveness of factors. I have seen other programs that allows the user to eliminate complete pace lines to paint a much clearer picture and more efficient determination of factors. Hopefully Ted could do something like this in future updates, let him know your desires on this worthwhile endeavor. Mitch44 |
03-06-2019, 07:20 AM | #19 | |
Grade 3
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 50
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Quote:
Could you please give an example (VDC or otherwise) of how to create and utilize weights. I understand the general concept but I've never been confident that I understand it well enough to create the proper weights. |
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03-06-2019, 09:30 AM | #20 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
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Thanks
Thanks Mitch and LT.1.
I have always enjoyed sharing my findings with others like both of you have done many times. Rmath |
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