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Old 02-17-2020, 11:40 PM   #11
ScottB
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mitch44 View Post
Takeout without a doubt does effect a players bottom line and what they receive back. However it only effects a WINNERS bottom line, like yours Richard. If you can't get the winner than the takeout is irrelevant.

Know your capabilities and limitations( strengths & weakness), decide what you'll take and design your bet to take advantage of your strengths and the public weaknesses. Despite the low odds horses winning there are still lots of opportunities and the public still make mistakes every day. Know your enemy, study them. What kind of frequent mistakes do they make?

Mitch44
Mitch

I normally bet horses between 4-1 and 8-1 but occasionally I will bet a horse at lower odds but try not to go less than 5-2 except for a lock winner like Maximum Security.

If I like a horse going off 4-1 how does the takeout affect me? I know if Im betting $100 win Im going to make $400 if the horse wins.

Takeout on exotics where you have no idea of the payout is a problem.
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Old 02-17-2020, 11:50 PM   #12
ScottB
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Hey Bill

The Meadowlands will be hosting a winter thoroughbred meet this year between Oct 2nd and Dec 2nd.

Monmouth Park applied for the racing dates and it was approved. The number of racing dates hasnt been announced yet.
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Old 02-18-2020, 12:09 AM   #13
Mitch44
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Discipline in betting can and does reduce the effect of the takeout. At times we must take what the enemy gives us. Perhaps we can create an Exacta or P3 etc. to overcome the low odds that exists. We must always ask;how can I make money out of this race and capitalize on my handicapping? What is the risk verses reward for this situation? We also need to try and get good returns for little outlay or extension of our capital.

I agree that takeout for Exotics is a problem, particularity in Tri's, however if you have a key horse its worth the risk. The public make more mistakes on combination type bets (exotics) than they do on straight win bets. For one reason their too win oriented and never consider an improving horse going off at long odds, they also don't have the guts to pull the trigger on long odds horses.

Thinking of horses other than win can boost one's bankroll and lessen the takeout. Also no one that hits a good payoff whether a longshot or a good exotic bet ever thinks about takeout.

Sounds like you have an abundance of discipline ScottB, it'll serve you well and prevent runouts while increasing your bottom line. Good luck.

Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 02-18-2020 at 12:12 AM.
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Old 02-18-2020, 12:26 AM   #14
The Pook
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So What?

One sure thing in horse racing, is that horses racing against each other, race against each other the same way they have always raced against each other. Only the names of the horses change.

And with that, I’m good.

Empty grandstands? So what. It’s mostly done from home now.
Small fields? So what. Maybe some tracks should close.
West coast racing in a funk? So what. Other tracks like WO are booming.
Lower prices? So what. Be more discerning, more patient, more curious.
Racing is not like it was when we were younger? So what. Adapt.

Why should racing not change? Everything changes.
Racing is dying again? So what. See above.

Pook
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Old 02-18-2020, 09:08 AM   #15
Mitch44
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Your zeroed in right on target Mike.(Pook) Its up to us to adapt and overcome. We do have many choices such as which track we play or the size field we play etc. This time of the year I prefer OP,FG,GP and Tam.

Even at those tracks with larger fields some races just aren't worth the risk. Sartin had it right many years ago with races that have too many unknown factors.

Overwhelmingly one need only look into a mirror to find the real culprit or the true problem. Not many can take that look and render a true assessment, therefore nothing changes. But that's OK as we need their money and may they maintain that stubborn resistance to change.Keep those old programs and drive that model T, we'll see you in our rear view mirror and back up camera with 180 degree sensors.

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Old 02-19-2020, 04:09 PM   #16
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I guarantee anyone who is complaining about the takeout strictly on win bets is struggling to stay in the black.
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Old 02-19-2020, 06:36 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by rdiam View Post
Why Horse Racing is Dying:

President's Day card at Santa Anita: more than half of the races have 5 entries BEFORE scratches...sad.

From Ken Massa (HTR): betting $1 on every horse during 2019 results in an ROI of 0.75 -- that is, a loss of 25 cents for every $1 bet. This is 50% higher than the traditional 17% takeout often quoted. How to reconcile?

According to Massa, the seeming anomaly can best be explained by the fact that the average winning horse pays "underlay" odds (where underlay odds are below those than a horse's true probability of winning). He uses an example of an 8 horse field, where the random probability of a horse winning is 0.125, so a "fair" payoff is 7-1 odds. At a 17% takeout, the "random" payout for a $2 win bet would be around $13.30. BUT, during 2019, the average payout on winners in an 8 horse field was only around $12 on a $2 bet, which calculates to a 0.75 ROI.

Bottom line, the winning percentage of favorites is approaching 40% (mostly due to small field sizes), and the "true" takeout is approaching 25%. Since horse race betting is a pari-mutuel game, profits to winners comes ONLY from losses by losers. The current structure of the game makes it almost impossible to continually attract "dumb" money, since this kind of bankroll is drastically depleted by such a prohibitive "true" takeout. PT Barnum might have once said "a sucker is born every minute", but horse racing is quickly running out of suckers.

Now many on this board like to say "just handicap and bet winners, don't worry about anything else and you will win $". The research by Ken Massa simply does not support this kind of thinking. To win at the current game, we need to use factors that are not part of the public domain, and structure bets intelligently. The "vig" in horse racing is currently higher than most are aware, and probably more difficult to overcome these days than in the past.

Richard

Richard,



I applaud your post. It is very meaningful and insightful. It verifies what I have been saying about multiple horse win betting and horizontal types of bets.
Hopefully, this information will sink in to those that don't have a clue.


I believe rebates and contest play can help offset and lower the 20% "Vig" on average of all pools combined. This was stated by Barry Meadow, who in my opinion is one of the most credible and smartest people in the game. He is the consummate horse player. I just purchased his new 445 page book "The Skeptical Handicapper". The book was compiled with statistical data supplied by Ken Massa who is a very skillful player, computer programmer and statistician.



I myself have decided to go with contest play I find it to be more enjoyable, less stressful and more gratifying.
If you enjoy handicapping as much as I do you should always look to increase your knowledge base. It never hurts to learn something new.
I am over 80 years of age and am still learning.


We all have our good and bad days. Today was a good day for me.
I kept my winning streak going in the "Live It Up Challenge" where I am currently in 7th position.. I invested a total of $21.35 and came back with a $169.00 entry into to Sundays NHC qualifier and made an additional $9.00 in a small contest placing 2nd. To me, that's good value and great entertainment.

Here's what it looks like. No BS.
Attached Images
 

Last edited by partsnut; 02-19-2020 at 06:39 PM.
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Old 02-19-2020, 06:39 PM   #18
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Nice job Parts
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Old 02-19-2020, 06:44 PM   #19
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Nice job Parts

Thanks Jeff.
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Old 02-19-2020, 07:40 PM   #20
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Way to go Bill.
Tim
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