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General Discussion General Horse Racing Discussion

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Old 01-09-2019, 07:09 PM   #11
rdiam
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Assume you find 2 horses in a race, each who you estimate has a 25% chance to win the race. You want to bet both horses as a group, so let's say your wager is $2.00 on each horse for a total of $4.00. Your group has a 25+25=50% chance of winning, so half the time you will lose your $4.00. If you are looking for an EV = 1.00, you will need to win $4.00 the other half of the time. This implies your winning mutual must be $8.00, or odds of 3-1 on EACH horse. Average odds confuses the issue.

Richard
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Old 01-10-2019, 10:01 AM   #12
Swifty0x0
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I understand exactly what you're saying. This is why I posed the question because the formula, as written, does not account for a multiple bet (i.e. EV 1.0 does not equal (3 + 1) x 0.5 to determine minimum odds).

Using average odds is fine if you dutch to the odds.

However, experimenting with the formula I think I've discovered what would work for group bets (i.e. dutching to the odds with multiple horse bets).

Interestingly, you're example equates if EV was 2.0 implying minimum average odds of 3/1 to break even (therefore, greater than average odds of 3/1 to profit), in a 2 horse betting scenario (EV = 2.0).

Here's a 3 horse scenario, so we set EV to 3.0. Let's say our 3 horse win probability is 60%. Working the equation this way we get a minimum odds (to break even) of 4/1.

3.0 = (4 + 1) x 0.6

To keep it simple, let's say each horse is 4/1 (averaging the odds is fine if you dutch to the odds). A $2 bet per horse is $6 per race and we get back $10 for each win. Over 10 races (win 6, lose 4) we cash for a total of $60 ($10 x 6 wins), and our total bet is also $60 ($6 x 10 races).

Therefore, the formula tells us we need better than average odds of 4/1 to make a profit on our multiple horse wager using 3 horses, and using their combined win percentage, if we set EV to the number of horses we bet in a race.

That seems to work.
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Old 01-11-2019, 03:48 PM   #13
rdiam
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You are not using the formula correctly: When betting 2 horses, each with an estimated win probability of 25%, each with tote odds of 3-1, then your group win probability is 25+25 = 50%, BUT your odds are 1-1, NOT 3-1: you bet two horses at $2.00 each for a total of $4.00 at risk, one of your horses wins and pays $8.00 (at 3-1), so your net win is $8.00-$4.00 = $4.00. Since your risk was $4.00 (betting 2 horses at $2.00 each) and your net win was $4.00 ($8.00-$4.00), the odds received were 1:1. Plugging into the formula, you get (1+1) x 0.5 = 1.0, or breakeven (ignoring statistical variance).

Bottom line, you must adjust BOTH the payout received (for the losing bet(s)) AND your amount bet (put at risk).

Richard
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