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05-11-2017, 02:19 PM | #11 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 153
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Saliu
Ted, an apt description of Saliu and I smiled when I read your comments. I do not subscribe to using his theory, theories for horseracing. They may work for the lottery and or casino but that is not my focus. I'm not sure but I don't think that he has academic credentials or honors that would add credibility to his work. Now I do think that his theories related to skips, frequencies, combinations, and etc. has some virtue when applied to his focus of games of chance. It may be possible to apply those approaches to Pick 6s, but I don't play them. I am not a mathematician and certainly don't claim that aptitude, but I like to keep an open mind to those ideas or approaches that may have some use to me. It seems to me that Saliu does not discount randomness but says why not look at those things which may be unique to random occurrences and use them to the players advantage. I have also found that his book is more readable (after 2 reads) than material that he posts on his site. I have not done any testing of his theories and don't intend to do so. I just like his ideas and maybe if I ever play Pick 6s I will do a little testing and of course I would never ignore the genius of Sartin and Bradshaw.
Pat |
12-30-2018, 02:48 PM | #12 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 168
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Hi Mick
I guess I am right with you,losing BIG on both breeder’s cup days. So I too am taking some time off to recoup and re-read posts and Sartin manuals. My main problem was betting.hurrying thru races and no passing bad races. I look to be back around the middle of Feb,anxious for the pre-derby races Take care my friend Papa John |
12-30-2018, 11:56 PM | #13 |
AlwNW2X
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 25
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I like to use Bris quick play comments to select races for a L.S. It breaks it down tp type of race, number of races, percent of favorites that win, then <5/1, >5/1<10/1 >10/1
with break down of the percentage of winners in each category. I have done well with his info and my own handicapping. |
12-31-2018, 11:07 AM | #14 |
BetMix User
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 2,433
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I am a Ray Taulbot advocate and believe that he was one of the most knowledgeable and prolific people that horse racing has and will ever know.
I believe the following article, written by Taulbot, says it all. https://www.americanturf.com/newslet...ow.cfm?id=5866 |
12-31-2018, 12:15 PM | #15 | |
Conley
Join Date: Sep 2018
Location: Fergus, Canada
Posts: 1,777
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Quote:
I have a few more angles by Ray on ABR... https://www.americanturfmonthly.org/...how.cfm?id=784 V ANGLE https://www.americanturf.com/newslet...ow.cfm?id=1425 Speed prep angle https://www.americanturf.com/pace/rayarticles.cfm This is ALL of his angles! Will be looking over this today! Happy new year everyone! |
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12-31-2018, 12:42 PM | #16 | |
BetMix User
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 2,433
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Quote:
I bet win only at 4-1 odds or better (at the gate). |
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12-31-2018, 03:31 PM | #17 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Mick: Sartin gained tremendous knowledge from reading books authored by those of higher learning. E.g. Chaos (Making a New Science), Order of chaos, Change and Chaos. Result was Entropy. And other books that inspired him to reinvent the wheel for horseracing with additional concepts.
gl45: 1. Your review in post 9 of this thread was spot on. I wasn't impressed by those reviews. What do they know about the science of math. Most likely their review was heavily weighted toward editing such as sentence structure and spelling. Now if it were reviewed by some math professor's or peers from the profession there would be some meat on the bone to digest. 2. "Of particular interest is his assertion that the past has a significant effect on the present and future. To explain this he uses an example of two men playing a best-of-three backgammon series. After the first match, the player in the lead has a 75% chance of winning the series, while the player who lost the first game has only a 25% chance of winning. He attributes this concept to Blaise Pascal, who is considered the father of probability theory." Now if this was true the Tandem Concept would be the bomb and much more effective than it is. There are those on the site that do extremely well with the Tandem but not 75% as Saliu states. There is some truth in this just not the 75% he states in 2 above. I gave up the Tandem years ago. Did hit some good paying horses with it. All I can say is it wins when it does. Sartin and Bradshaw did hone it into a valid concept, I just found other Factors to be more profitable. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 12-31-2018 at 03:35 PM. |
12-31-2018, 04:34 PM | #18 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 2,538
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Parts,
As quoted from the Taulbot article "What is a good price? Certainly nothing less than 4-1, because it requires a price of this amount to overcome the inevitable losers. This statement is based on the fact that if the winning percentage is no higher than 25 percent, one must receive an average of at least 4-1 to break even" 4-1? You need 3-1 to break even hitting 25% winners. Of course you are trying to do better than even but an average of 3-1 will keep you even. Pook |
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