Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > General Discussion
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

General Discussion General Horse Racing Discussion

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 11-07-2013, 09:08 AM   #1
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
The Parx 7 furlong

On Oct 26 Water Tower won a 7 furlong race at Parx.

Down in the selections area
Rmath was asked which pace line he used to get this winner.

His reply got me thinking,

Quote:
Moose you asked why I used line.
Here are the pacelines for the 2horse.
Line 1 is the best of last 3 and is my line of choice because at 7 furlongs I have found that both sprinters and routers run quite well. The other reason is that there are no 6.5 or 7 furlong races in the last 5 races showing for this horse,therefore I opted to use line 1 because this horse had a high CSR number.
Hope this explains my use of this line.
rmath
Although I follow a very strict pace line contender selection method
laid out by FTL in the teaching area, I agree with Richard, I have always felt the same about 7 furlong races,
that sprinters and routers seem to both do well at this distance.

I went back and checked all the 7 furlong races run at Parx so far in 2013.
I then identified the winner of those 197 races as being won by the following notations.

Router = R
Sprinter = S
Both = B
Zero = 0

Router and Sprinter are self explanatory all there pace lines are from that distance, Water Tower is a router

Name:  Watertower.PNG
Views: 337
Size:  108.2 KB

The notation B / both is for horses who show plus + pacelines at both the sprint and route distance.

The notation 0 is for horses with both sprint and route pacelines but have no plus + races, These 0 horses are also first time starters, or horses with only poly or turf lines.

Here is the breakdown of the 197 winners

Name:  Sprinters do.PNG
Views: 308
Size:  5.2 KB


Sprinters (S) do have an advantage over the B, R, and 0 winners but its not enough, This is why I will usually only work 7 furlong races with all sprinters
or maybe 1 route horse. If there is a mixture of sprinters and routers I will pass.

thought I would share my findings Water Tower won and paid $17.00
here are RMath lines

Bill
Attached Images
 
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-07-2013, 09:13 AM   #2
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
Both

I find it interesting that horses who show a + pace line at both a sprint and route distance do better well at 7 furlongs


Bill
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-07-2013, 11:25 AM   #3
dirty moose
Grade 1
 
dirty moose's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: NY
Posts: 455
Bill you also pointed something out to me once. It also depends on what track you are at. If you were at Belmont instead of Parx for instance, the 7 and 8 furlong race would both come out of the chute. The mile at Parx is a 2 turn race.

I don't know how much of an effect that has. But I'm sure it has some.
dirty moose is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-07-2013, 11:41 AM   #4
Appy
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Flint Hills in Kansas, formerly from Montana
Posts: 334
Kind of interesting Bill's chart of 197 races shows female sprinters nearly twice as dominant vs routers @ 7F than are their male counterparts.
__________________
Serious fun. www.cappersoverlay.com
Appy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-07-2013, 12:03 PM   #5
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
Por

Quote:
Originally Posted by dirty moose View Post
Bill you also pointed something out to me once. It also depends on what track you are at. If you were at Belmont instead of Parx for instance, the 7 and 8 furlong race would both come out of the chute. The mile at Parx is a 2 turn race.

I don't know how much of an effect that has. But I'm sure it has some.

Hi Matt

I mentioned this in my preliminary (napkin) conversations on my research
of 7 furlong races

The early pace of race in the 7 furlong races is much faster than at 1 mile.
They tend to go very slow around turn 1 at 1 mile.

I have not separated the mile distance to male and female or by age yet
but I have at 7 furlongs.

Here are the average Pace of race early fractions for 7 furlong and 1 mile
races, at Parx

Name:  7_8 POR.PNG
Views: 283
Size:  4.1 KB

This may be a reason why routers do well at Parx at 7 furlongs if they have run a plus race in a sprint

Last edited by Bill V.; 11-07-2013 at 12:08 PM.
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-07-2013, 12:22 PM   #6
Segwin
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Cleveland, Ohio
Posts: 624
Bill, you once showed your template in a thread. I thought I bookmarked it but can't put my finger on it. Do you remember what thread that was?


Thanks.
__________________
Terry
Segwin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-07-2013, 02:27 PM   #7
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
Many Factors

Quote:
Originally Posted by Segwin View Post
Bill, you once showed your template in a thread. I thought I bookmarked it but can't put my finger on it. Do you remember what thread that was?


Thanks.
Terry I doubt you are anybody would do what I do.
Here is my template.
For the winner of each race at Parx, I keep track of many factors. Most of this information is not really
necessary but I just do it for the enjoyment

From left to right my headings are

Date
Race #
Surface
Distance
Class
Class Rating
Age /Sex
Name of winner
Total Energy
EPR
LPR
TPR
E/L difference
- These are the actual numbers calculated from the result chart not a ranking.

Next to these calculations I list the actual,
POR fractions
The Visual ESP
BL F1
BL SC
Position F1
Position SC
Field size
The morning Line
final odds
Post position
Win Price
Jockey
Age of Horse
Days since last race
Life time wins
Lifetime races
Plus race last line (or valid excuse) ? Y-N
Plus race last 90 days in a comparable pace line? Y-N
Trainer
Claims in the race

As Ted said mine is a hybrid of Doc's Ideal spreadsheet FU 82
A Brohamer decision model, and the model from Pace Makes the Race
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-08-2013, 05:32 AM   #8
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
percent

Quote:
Originally Posted by Appy View Post
Kind of interesting Bill's chart of 197 races shows female sprinters nearly twice as dominant vs routers @ 7F than are their male counterparts.
Here are the percentages 197 total races 121 for males 76 for females

Name:  percentages.PNG
Views: 256
Size:  3.8 KB
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-08-2013, 05:29 PM   #9
rmath
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
Bill, thanks for the info on PRX 7 f races.
I like playing them because most people are too unsure of what it takes to win at this distance. I find I can usually find one or two decent paying horses on each card.

Rmath
rmath is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-09-2013, 07:31 AM   #10
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
Do 7 furlong races pay better?

Like a ghost 7 furlong races paying better than other distance may not
be there at all.

Like many things mutual prices tend to average out.

Getting long shots at 7 furlongs more than other distances is probably based on being at the right place at the right time.

But seriously, horses that pay well and us being able to spot them over what the crowd thinks is probably based on readouts available to us in the Sartin Methodology. The crowd does not seem to be any better or worse at 7 furlongs than the other distances.


Based on my records of all the dirt sprint races run
in 2013, 7 furlong males pay much better than females
At 6 and 6.5 furlongs males pay a little better than the females

At 5.5 furlongs the females pay better
than the males

Here is the breakdown of all the sprint races run at Parx so far in 2013
There are so few 5 furlong races, I did not include them . Usually these races are off the turf races which tend to mess up the odds.

The average price for all dirt sprints is $11.33
The average morning line for all dirt sprints is 4.87/1

7 furlong males pay better than average but the females pay less than average .

Name:  sprint distance ave.PNG
Views: 240
Size:  7.8 KB
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
SA 6.5 furlong Down the Hill turf course Bill Lyster Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) 34 06-27-2014 07:08 PM
Why Parx Bill V. General Discussion 6 11-04-2013 02:06 PM
Parx race 9 Donald LeVine Memorial Handicap Bill V. Races of Interest 2 06-23-2013 06:41 PM
Parx VDC 8/29 Bill V. Selections 7 08-30-2011 12:17 PM
Sam Houston Race 3 Thurs 12/17 mikesal57 Matchup Discussion 15 12-18-2009 08:46 AM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:30 AM.