The Belmont

[Bill V.]

Hi FTL

Im on the same page as MikeSal
These races just are not what they once were.
I take nothing away from Animal Kingdom
As I listened to the race on the radio and as Animal Kindom won
I just got a sad feeling. Can't explain it but I really can't see a
horse with that kind of record winning back in the Sartin era
I didnt even look at or bet the Preakness but I would have lost if I had

I guess I will always be just a bread and butter
claimer,and NWALW better 9 furlongs and less

Good Skill to all in the Belmont

Bill V.
Dallas TX

[SilentRun]

Both E/L 2.0 and RDSS came up with the same three top contenders,
Nehro, Animal Kingdom and Shackleford. I think that the general public can also see that these are key horses.

The other horse that I like is Prime Cut. I am unsure if I will even bet this race.

Ernie

[Ted Craven]

Here's what it looks like to me, from 2 angles (and with a fair amount of overlap):





For paceline selection, I erred on the side of more recent and longer distance for these young, improving (or declining?) 3 YOs, thus I was unwilling to go back to best performances earlier in the year, even if I suspected a horse might improve.

The 4 horses in my Primary Contender section are who I think could win the race and finish in-the-money. I would have to also consider Brilliant Speed for ITM, perhaps 3rd or 4th position.

Bets later, depending on odds. I'll take a look at other races on the Belmont undercard.

Good luck everyone!

Ted

[Bill V.]

Hi Ted

Bets later, depending on odds. I'll take a look at other races on the Belmont undercard.

Good luck everyone!

Ted

Forty Prayers is running today in race 3

Bill

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Hi Ted

Forty Prayers is running today in race 3

Bill

Indeed he is!

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpos...23&postcount=3

Ted

[rmath]

Ted, Would not #8Prime cut be the swing horse and therefore become the #1 E by virtue of his 101 high rating and either the 10 or 12 horses being the other E since they are basically tied at 98 &97

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by rmath

Ted, Would not #8Prime cut be the swing horse and therefore become the #1 E by virtue of his 101 high rating and either the 10 or 12 horses being the other E since they are basically tied at 98 &97

Prime Cut is the Swing horse, but pretty far down the Early Speed% list (5th). Shackleford is dominant over MMM with 67% of the top 2 Early Speed, so he needs to be designated the #1 Early. I can see making a case though for Prime as #2 Early with his superior high SR. According to the current software rules (not saying they're perfect), we just use the 2nd ES% horse as the #2, but perhaps that's what the brain is for!

For some users, the #1 Early Speed% (double RED) is the 'kiss of death' for Win. Based on other RDSS analysis, I'm not sure MMM is Shackleford's worst Early nightmare, so his #1 ES ranking might not be a 'liability' here. It would not surprise me for Shackleford to go all the way on the front end (just like Da'Tara 3 years ago!)

Perhaps the above analysis is a good one to pose to Dave S in the EL2/NewPace discussion forum.

Ted

[pktruckdriver]

Another reason I love this program, the winner on top and notice I used 1st lines on both races

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by ted craven

here's what it looks like to me, from 2 angles (and with a fair amount of overlap):



for paceline selection, i erred on the side of more recent and longer distance for these young, improving (or declining?) 3 yos, thus i was unwilling to go back to best performances earlier in the year, even if i suspected a horse might improve.

The 4 horses in my primary contender section are who i think could win the race and finish in-the-money. I would have to also consider Brilliant Speed for itm, perhaps 3rd or 4th position.

Bets later, depending on odds. I'll take a look at other races on the belmont undercard.

Good luck everyone!

Ted

Stay Thirsty - who knew!

[chris]

COMPLETED:
78615887591372 BEL #11 $2 Win 3,4

Had Gio Ponti finished 2nd in the 10th race the superfecta would have been mine. But the Belmont stakes was my reward. All I did was look at the strangers - horses who hadn't run or been particularly competitive in the Derby or Preakness, but had some merit in their past performances. And most important, were offered at inviting odds. Both horses fit; sometimes anti-handicapping is the answer, not always, just sometimes.

Regards,
Chris