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Old 10-26-2019, 04:46 PM   #1
omar
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Eliminating False Favorites

Here's an easy way to determine if you have a playable race by eliminating the fave. They only win 1/3 of the time anyhow and if the odds on fave wins, there goes your reward.
Case in point Belmont's 7th race on 10/26. #4 is the m/l and actual fave. Went off at 4/5. I'm only looking at this one horse. If I feel i can beat him then i'll handicap the race. Won only start 2 months ago at 3/2. Where has he been? I can make a pretty good case for the2B, 8,10 and 11, all proven in this company. They all ran 1st thru 4th. #4 is still running.
I do this for every race, even maidens, where the chalk wins more than there fair share.
Omar

















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Old 10-27-2019, 01:42 PM   #2
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eliminating the favorite

Here's another easy throw out: gpw 10/27 R1


Look at the #1. Back in June was sent off at 3-1 and 5/2, last race off the drop was sent off at 6-1. Today is installed as the 5/2 ml and went off at 4/5 on a rise in class! No way. I bet the #6 at 9-1. Ka-Ching!
I know what you're thinking, the conditions of todays race. Well 10k=10k and 16k>10k.Gpw2019Race1.pdf
#1 ran a distant 4th!

Last edited by omar; 10-27-2019 at 01:53 PM.
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Old 10-29-2019, 07:37 PM   #3
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What was your reasoning for betting the #6?
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Old 10-30-2019, 03:08 AM   #4
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Gpw 10/27 R1

My reasoning is as follows:The #1 is my target or fulcrum horse. He ran a 238 pace number in last race. I already stated why I didn't like him, I felt they made him the ml fave off his June races where he went off at low odds at higher class races which don't apply to his current form today based on the fact they dropped him to a 10 claimer where he goes off at 6-1??? If I don't like him at 5/2 then I certainly won't take him at 4/5!!
Look at the #6 horse. He's the only horse that runs consistent pace #'s in a 257-261 range. His problem was that he was running above his head in those races. When dropped to 12.5 claimer he showed life. He did beat straight 30 claimers last year (back class). I used his 12/13 [101] race and 5/11 [-6] race(composite races) with my tmm program.
The #9 was also an interesting horse with decent pace #s but they sent him off at 5/2, clearly an underlay based on his ml, my program odds and his past races in which he was sent off at high odds. Had he gone off at 8-1 or more I would have bet him to win also.
The odds you see on my print out are the programs generated odds based on the lines I used on the horses.
The 2 attached files are my tmm summary print out Attachment 48545
My bias info was too large to post but was as follows: based on 10 races at this distance/meet there was a 40-50% speed bias, while only 2 races were wire to wire jobs. Based on the 2 races won within the last week, one was won by an EP horse with an impact value of 1.74 and by a P type horse with an impact value of 2.32. Race was won by the presser.
Check out result chart GPW102719USA1.pdf

Last edited by omar; 10-30-2019 at 03:13 AM.
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