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Old 12-06-2008, 09:10 PM   #1
Tim Y
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The Match Up and destructive interference

Many moons ago, when I took physics, we learned of destructive interference where radio waves could be blocked from coming into an area by transmitting waves, extactly 180 degrees in opposite in polarity to those originally put out. I understand this is often used on political borders to keep out those "unwanted" radio broadcasts.

The match up is, to varying degrees, just like this. This is where the database fellows and the Beyer followers completely MISS THE BOAT. One cannot evaluate a horse in isolation as it is effected, to some degree or another, akin to the destructive inference radio waves by the various pace scenarios it faces in each of the contests we reviewed.

One sees this in sports all the time when a lesser team beats a "theoretically better team," when viewed in the complete isolation of statistical analysis. Boxers have styles which they cannot overcome while on paper they are much better than that opponent.

When a horse is in competition, today's match up effects it's outcome. Vary the match up "destructive interference" and that outcome changes. No Beyer number of database evaluation can reproduce the effects of the match up IN TODAY'S RACE.

The effects of the match up can be positive as well. How many times has the only other speed been a late scratch and a theoretically weaker horse gone out, all alone on the lead, sneaking out to an big lead? Lesser horse wins not based upon IT'S ability but the positive (for him) match up.

There are hundreds of examples of the negative match up but the best that comes to mind was Cigar's Pacific Classic. There was a single horse in the race that negatively effected his performance: Siphon. This Brazilian monster could easily go 10 furlongs on the lead without breaking a sweat. As a presser Cigar was in the unenviable position of having to go with him (which would have tired this one as subsequent races showed he was on a significant down turn showing the wear and tear of that long season and 3000 mile sojourn to the opposite coast) or let him be alone on the lead which would substantially increase Siphon's chances to go wire to wire. The match up, THAT DAY, negatively impacted on a horse of better ability (in isolation) but not within the bounds of that day's match up.

The essence of racing: HOW the interaction of the various pace pressers in THIS race, TODAY change the abilities of the participants. They don't race in isolation.

Last edited by Tim Y; 12-06-2008 at 09:27 PM.
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