Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > General Discussion
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

General Discussion General Horse Racing Discussion

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 04-03-2020, 04:34 PM   #11
partsnut
BetMix User
 
partsnut's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 2,433
Tim and Mitch,
No offense intended.
If it works for you then don't fix it if it's not broken.

However, when someone makes a statement, they should back it up with proof. I consider unproven statements as hearsay.
When you bring a case to court you need to prove your case.
Whether your statements are true or not they are valueless to me without supporting data and or evidence to prove them.
What my left eye sees my right eye will believe.
Maybe you both should post 2 or 3 (Two horse picks) a day so that we can all learn from you. Use and indicate an alternate pick in case of scratches.
Show us all how you can win. If you don't, I completely understand. As many in this game will respond, "I have nothing to prove". Herein lies the problem with faceless statements.

It's amazes me as to how many horse players I have met over the past 65 years that claim to be winners.
partsnut is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-03-2020, 05:09 PM   #12
Lt1
Grade 1
 
Lt1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,041
Hey Bill check the selections sections. I've posted enough full card selections with results. If doesn't satisfy you there's nothing much else I can do.
Tim
__________________
Trust but verify
Lt1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-03-2020, 05:36 PM   #13
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
Bill I've posted many picks here on this site and few if any ever ask any questions. I'll never forget something I learned from Sartin and that is;" that no matter how many horses you pick you're only as good as your last winner." Those that want picks are really asking "do something for me" to quote Sartin.

I'm not here to do something constantly for someone. They really need to do something for themselves. I'm perfectly satisfied with what I do and can do. What I have been doing for years several here now are doing and some of it has been incorporated into the new RDSS.

I've done a ton of work over the years and when the time is available I put up my picks and thoughts. I won't waste my time to prove something to every Tom, Dick and Harry that comes along. I have better things to do in life. It seems as through the ones on this site that don't even use the program make the most noise. Losers are always attacking winners , I suppose their misery is looking for company. I avoid NIPS as much as possible. NIPS are negative influence people.

Mitch44
Mitch44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-03-2020, 07:10 PM   #14
partsnut
BetMix User
 
partsnut's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 2,433
Tim and Mitch,

Thank you for your expected responses.
I believe I have made my point.
You can be assured that I don't
need or would ever rely on your picks.
I use a solid and winning methods that produces a steady profit. The numbers don't lie. Show me yours and I'll show you mine.
I have the past 90 days of data. Which shows a meanful profit and a win rate of over 47% picking just one horse to win. I don't post 4 or 5 horses and intimate that I hit multiple types of bets. I post just one horse to win When I do post.
When you can duplicate that, let me know.
Talk is cheap. Proven results are all that matters.

I rest my case.
partsnut is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-03-2020, 07:58 PM   #15
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
Now a days it easy to pick 47%.Years back favorites would win 33 % year in and year out. In those days there were less tracks and more horses or full fields.

Not anymore with watered down racing of 5 and 6 horse fields at tracks like GG , SA and many other tracks around the country. Small fields with many more tracks has raised the favorites to be winning in the mid 40's percentage range. Hell on most days now a good paying horse is one that pays $8 or $9 on a card. That % can also be raised higher with selected type of races to play.

Bottom line is your stat is not an impressive statistic to me. Its a false narrative as to what a person's win percentage is, the real bottom line is if they made money. A person could have one winner a day and make money. While I can pick at least 65% betting two horses and many times up to 80%, I'm more concerned with making a profit.

BTW those that put up 5 selections are only doing that for Ex and Tri tickets. Their not betting those horses to win or they would have them ranked higher. That has been explained several times on the site. Rather than play these low paying horses they play Ex. or pass but will play a legit horse in horizonal bets. Sartin also recommended 5 horses for record keeping purposes and for contenders.


Mitch44
Mitch44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-03-2020, 08:20 PM   #16
partsnut
BetMix User
 
partsnut's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 2,433
Mitch,


Here's an angle that came up today in the first race at TAM.

These are the situations I look for. They don't always win but this one did today. I pick my spots. This is only one single track example. I have many and use them when they appear. They are consistently profitable.


As I said, Validation lends to credibility.
The data doesn't lie.
Attached Images
 
partsnut is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-04-2020, 08:10 AM   #17
CheckMark
Conley
 
CheckMark's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2018
Location: Fergus, Canada
Posts: 1,777
Thank you to everyone who has put their thought on Longshots! Appreciate it big time!

I have a question for Partsnut if you don’t mind me asking? I have always been interested in BETMIX, and I have for the past 2 weeks played around with the free race of the day and to my surprise, I was picking good horses to win plus some Longshots to get second or 3rd at a good price. I was wondering, if I were to purchase BETMIX subscription for let’s say 1 month @ $50 and I created some mixes for some tracks with MixMaker and made my mixes well enough that I was winning... would it make sense to continue with the program? I have always wanted to purchase a subscription but it was always a thought of is this program right for me and if I put the the time into it, what would I get out of it. Just a question for you and nothing to make you mad or anything. Have a good day folks and let’s get out our winning hats today!
__________________
Life is an adventure, enjoy it and live every day as if it were your last- Barb Craven
CheckMark is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-04-2020, 09:26 AM   #18
partsnut
BetMix User
 
partsnut's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 2,433
Quote:
Originally Posted by CheckMark View Post
Thank you to everyone who has put their thought on Longshots! Appreciate it big time!

I have a question for Partsnut if you donÂ’t mind me asking? I have always been interested in BETMIX, and I have for the past 2 weeks played around with the free race of the day and to my surprise, I was picking good horses to win plus some Longshots to get second or 3rd at a good price. I was wondering, if I were to purchase BETMIX subscription for letÂ’s say 1 month @ $50 and I created some mixes for some tracks with MixMaker and made my mixes well enough that I was winning... would it make sense to continue with the program? I have always wanted to purchase a subscription but it was always a thought of is this program right for me and if I put the the time into it, what would I get out of it. Just a question for you and nothing to make you mad or anything. Have a good day folks and letÂ’s get out our winning hats today!
----------------------------------------------------------------------


Conely,


I am not or would encouraging you to gamble. I can only speak to you about what I enjoy and what works for me in accordance to my situation and lifestyle.
I am retired in Florida with a lot of free time on my hands. I enjoy the challenge of handicapping horse races and have been doing so for the past 65 years. I've tried many things and have found BetMix to be the most enjoyable and best application I have ever come across. For me, it's the best value in horse racing. It is a very diverse application which has multiple ways to handicap and to analyze a race.
The making of a Mix is only a small part of it. If an individual is willing or has the time to devote to BetMix, it may prove to be very productive. However, they would have to understand mathematically, what the implications would be as to betting on given situations and what the odds of a given horse implies. The application is governed by about 52 factors and has data which goes back 7 years. BetMix is technically advanced and keeps up with today's racing conditions. It also takes a lot of the guess work out of picking winners.



I would never be angry with you or anyone else here. I may get irritated and nausea may set in when I see closed minded individuals throw out numbers without backing them up without data or making broad based selections and not indicating how they would bet or play the race (before the fact). As they say, talk is cheap.
partsnut is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-04-2020, 09:37 AM   #19
Ted Craven
Grade 1
 
Ted Craven's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
Conley, Bill H (partsnut) - you KNOW there's such a thing as PRIVATE MESSAGE, right!? We've been over (and OVER) this before with non-Sartin programs. No different from any other commercial software - there are dedicated forums for each.

Ted
__________________

R
DSS -
Racing Decision Support System™
Ted Craven is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-04-2020, 09:42 AM   #20
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
Nice example Bill but to use your words credibility comes before the fact or demonstrated performance. Did you bet it ? Where's the ticket? Anybody can find a decent paying horse after the fact. Put it up before.

Some more of your words; " I see closed minded individuals throw out numbers without backing them up without data or making broad based selections and not indicating how they would bet or play the race (before the fact). As they say, talk is cheap." You could add to this, throw out results after the fact.


" before the fact". I'm dying to see your 47% for a one horse bet and back up that braggadocio.



Patiently waiting,


Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 04-04-2020 at 09:50 AM.
Mitch44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Let's Talk Longshots 09-23-18 partsnut Selections 7 09-24-2018 06:14 PM
Documentation - RDSS 2.1 Ted Craven RDSS 2.2 (and previous versions) 10 03-08-2018 05:28 PM
Supp. LS Fairchild RDSS2 / FAQ's 12 11-15-2015 08:50 AM
RDSS 2.0 Pacelines pilot RDSS2 / FAQ's 21 04-03-2013 07:27 PM
RDSS Modeller Export Ted Craven RDSS 16 07-26-2009 05:30 PM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 09:56 PM.