First 20 race cycle

[mnl97]

Thanks mitch44

[Ted Craven]

The F3 PoR and TS PoR factors (Fraction3 and True Speed aka Final Time velocity for the race, respectively) are not good indicators for models if only because some pacelines for today's horses will be drawn from Tandem races (i.e. the same race) and thus will have identical PoR values and thus TIED ranks. Thus, results in more hits in the Top 4 (and why 100% for TS PoR).

However, TSF3+ is comprised of TS and F3 for the pace of the race (PoR) of the line chosen PLUS the Total Energy for the horse. It is not a single factor rating, but a blending of the final speed (True Speed) of the race the horse ran against weighted by the 3rd fraction of that race weighted by the Total Energy of the horse. If you hover your mouse over the header on the Rx+ screen, it tells you the components, as does this Documentation entry here: http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpos...02&postcount=5)

For the foregoing reasons, according to your paceline selection practice, I would consider it a good factor for you to track. The Match Up = how the horse set or overcame the pace of the race. Thus, TSPoR is an indicator of the calibre of pace of the race, while the F3 weighting shows performance of the pace settor in the critical 3rd fraction, while a good showing in Total Energy shows that the horse itself (compared to the pace it faced) faced or overcame well that pace of race.

Further, there are NO ties in TSF3+ because the Total Energy for the horse component guarantees uniqueness even if horses raced in the same Tandem race. This blended factor is there because the modeled results of over 1300 races showed hit rates not quite as good as your small sample shows, but in the mid to upper 80% range across race classes, tracks and distances (possibly surfaces, can't remember).

This factor is a (much) simpler rendition omitting most of the internal segments of what VDC essentially shows (which uses all of the internal segments, plus segmental gains against pace, plus overall Primary Factors).

You may find it interesting to research what the intersection ranks show using Top 5/4 ProfitLine, Top 5/4 Bris Prime Power, Top 5/4 TSF3+ and Top 5/4 Rx3. For extra (and in my experience - impactful) measure, compare the Top 3 Tx2 (Place to Win Ratio) from the toteboard readings.

This always leads to a very high percentage of Winners and not a few Place finishers, Top 4.

Again, your choice of pacelines matters, as does how you decide to filter Non/Contenders.

Ted

[Ted Craven]

My apologies regarding a particular explanation of the TSF3+ factor in the previous post. I have edited that post for clarity, so now the explanation is correct.

I had said that TSF3+ was TS PoR + F3 PoR + TS PoH (or Adjusted SR, or Final time of the horse). I was mistaken when I wrote that. Per the documentation I referenced, and per the popup 'tooltip' in the Rx+ screen (which are correct), instead of TS PoH it is actually Total Energy for the horse (TE PoH) Total Energy TE is of course the sum of the velocities of the horse for F1 + F2 + F3.

Thanks Mitch44 for bringing this to my attention

Ted

[mnl97]

I'm a bit confused about TS POR In first paragraph below you say not a good indicator and the second paragraph you recommend tracking TS POR#.

The F3 PoR and TS PoR factors (Fraction3 and True Speed aka Final Time velocity for the race, respectively) are not good indicators for models if only because some pacelines for today's horses will be drawn from Tandem races (i.e. the same race) and thus will have identical PoR values and thus TIED ranks. Thus, results in more hits in the Top 4 (and why 100% for TS PoR).

You may find it interesting to research what the intersection ranks show using Top 5/4 ProfitLine, Top 5/4 Bris Prime Power, Top 5/4 TSPoR+ and Top 5/4 Rx3. For extra (and in my experience - impactful) measure, compare the Top 3 Tx2 (Place to Win Ratio) from the toteboard readings.

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by mnl97

I'm a bit confused about TS POR In first paragraph below you say not a good indicator and the second paragraph you recommend tracking TS POR#.

The F3 PoR and TS PoR factors (Fraction3 and True Speed aka Final Time velocity for the race, respectively) are not good indicators for models if only because some pacelines for today's horses will be drawn from Tandem races (i.e. the same race) and thus will have identical PoR values and thus TIED ranks. Thus, results in more hits in the Top 4 (and why 100% for TS PoR).

You may find it interesting to research what the intersection ranks show using Top 5/4 ProfitLine, Top 5/4 Bris Prime Power, Top 5/4 TSPoR+ and Top 5/4 Rx3. For extra (and in my experience - impactful) measure, compare the Top 3 Tx2 (Place to Win Ratio) from the toteboard readings.

Mike, my bad . Instead of TSPoR+ (not a thing) I MEANT to write TSF3+ which we had been discussing initially and which I agreed could be highly impactful. (So my advice would be: DO model TSF3+, DON'T bother with TS PoR).

I corrected (again) my initial post so that future readers won't have to read 3 more posts to become unconfused. Very sorry for the typo!

Ted

[mnl97]

Tks

[Mitch44]

Mike,

To clarify this the formula TS+F3+ has absolutely nothing to do with POR and POH.

1.POR and POH consists of F1,F2 and F3 or the 3 fractions of a race, that can be added as in Total Energy or each Fr. can be measured by the POR to see how it handled the pace for that FR as in the original Yellow Manual.

2. TS or true speed is a measurement of the final time of the race. Total Distance divided by time( I.e. Final time and a SR or a ASR is another way of looking at the whole or final time. TS = Dis. divided by time (Dis.) I.e. 6 F =3,960 feet divided by time (1:10) 3960 / 70 = 56.57 FPS or True Speed

These have nothing to do with Pace. Pace according to Sartin consisted of the 3 Fr's. The 3 Fr's ( and Tot. En. the adding of those 3 Fr's) place it in context or how it achieved it verses TS. TS,ASP or a SR is solely based on final time and not incremental Velocity.

Where this formula is placed, under POR leads one to misinterpret what it is. perhaps this formula would be better placed elsewhere such as on the opening page where APV and other data is contained or before the LPR rating outside the box of POR.

As Ted states it ( TS+F3+)can be used for contender selection if one doesn't already have one and perhaps you might want to compare it to the one you presently use. Its what I would call a quasi formula for deceleration and not a true one. V/DC is best for measuring deceleration. Also I believe there are better Factors or solutions for breaking those pesky ties with V/DC than TS+F3+.

Today's Match Up supersedes the old use of POR and POH. If shown or used as in the old Yellow Manual and adapted further it could provide insights into todays Match Up. However most winners come from the top 3 of many Factors. Asking whether or not its the same horse that earned that figure and its odds determine many winners from losers. Hopefully this clarifies all this and lays to rest the confusion.

Mitch44

[Ted Craven]

If still confused about TSF3+, please just re-read my original post above (corrected a couple of times per my subsequent posts): http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpos...5&postcount=12

Use it or don't use it! Model it or don't - whatever.

Total Energy = F1+F2+F3 = accumulated velocity of the horse (PoH). TSF3+ comprises Total Speed for the race + Fraction 3 for the race + Total Energy for the Horse. As I said above.

Thus, TSF3+ includes PACE: of the horse, of the 3rd faction of the race according to the pacesetters. Don't want to call it 'pace'? No worries, just chill and call it 'incremental energy disbursement' (like Sartin did).

Is it as complex (and as 'good') a factor as V/DC - no (as I mentioned above). You'll get a lot of co-relations between a lot of these high-level factors.

Don't like seeing it in the PoR section on Rx+ (despite 2 of the 3 components being based on the pacesetters or race winners) - what can I say? I tried to put it in a context of how the horse itself performed (Total Energy) against the Pace of the Race it faced, in the section (PoR) which ranks the strength of the race. As I mentioned in my initial post, it did not arise from throwing darts, but rather from extensive MODELING which revealed some interesting factors using this very sheet.

No one says you HAVE TO use it. Answer for yourself if it is useful.

Thanks for reading.

Ted

[Mitch44]

Co-relations, AKA know as ties is a fact of the game. We start with the field with perhaps as many as 14 (BC races), very seldom can we single one horse and when capable is pays nothing for the effort.

There are races with as many as 6, regardless however that's a infrequent occurrence of what used. In the majority of cases there are only 3 true contenders in the majority of races. One has to separate those finalist even if a two horse bettor. And there is probability of being wrong from the start around 35 %.
Final decisions whether using your brain or V/DC is a fact of racing or the game would be dead.

Bottom Line is you have to find a factor or something that produces better results than the norm. In this sport there are many hundreds of belief factors and not as simple as one of the 39 flavors or so of ice cream they make. And rest assured if you come up with even a **** factor someone is bound to like it.

Through your own research find your own niche, its all about profit or success. Data base results are useless unless you know every detail of how its collected, only than do you own it and can separate the wheat from the chaff. A 1300 research sounds impressive but like beauty its all in the eye of the beholder.

Mitch44

[mnl97]

I've handicapped and bet 27 more races at CD for a total of 47. As before, all on dirt; sprint and rte included. NO Maidens. Bet 2 horses to win, $3/$2.
SEE ATTACHED

My intention on the 2nd 20 was to bet the 1st and 2nd ranked VDC and with decent odds. At first I bet against low odds favorites that were ranked VDC=1 or 2. I had to change due to so many top VDC low odds favorites were winning.

The first 20 ROI was 1.5. The next 27 was 1.19. With 47 races it dropped to 1.34. Quite a disappointment. I would have been worse if it were not for a win on a 18.5:1 long shot that had a VDC of 3 and Rx3 of 1. I had a winner in 40% of the races.

Based on all the data collected, I added a few more factors to track.
BL, V/DC, RX1, RX3, TSF3+ #, FX, CPR#, POS STR, TPP#, PROFITLINE, BPP.

Chose first 10 based on %top 4>80, %top 3>70 and/or %top 2>60%. A table is attached. Ted, I don't have access to the Tote factors.

My biggest take away is when RDSS says the low odds favorite should win the race, believe it. I've attached a table showing the factor ranks for the low odds winners. TABLE ATTACHED.

Would appreciate your thoughts on the factors that had the highest % for 47 races at CD. With all this information, I'm not sure how BEST to use it.

I've struggled with writing enough. I''ll share more stuff/ask more questions later.