Live -- 7/23 - Pace and Cap

tfm · 07-23-2011, 01:24 PM

CRC R3:

bad bunch -- most haven't routed

no value/high risk

#7, Mountain Chapel, is the best of the bunch

exacta: 7 / 2, 10

tfm · 07-23-2011, 01:28 PM

2 won it for fun @ 7:5 --- sitting a nice stalking trip

when horses that previously have gone 5.5F (twice) and 6.5F win 1st time 2 turn racing, beating horses that have previously routed, I ALWAYS lose.

tfm · 07-23-2011, 01:56 PM

It's Saturday, I typically play FOUR tracks during the day, and I'm expecting some good racing. What I get instead is:

1) a turf speed bias @ SAR -- carrying over from yesterday and expected for the meet
2) canceled card @ DEL
3) off the turf @ CRC
4) TWO 2 year old races in a row @ WO

way to go

tfm · 07-23-2011, 02:06 PM

WO R3:

2 year old maiden race

minimal bet

#8, Silver Silhouette -- in today after debuting in a stakes race -- Contreras stays up -- need I say more

#6, Youcan'tcatchme -- best of the rest of those having run previously -- chased, holding 2nd, around the track going 5F 1st out; stretches to 6F today --- not exactly an ideal angle.

exacta: 8 OVER 6

if one of the 1sters breaks this up, at least I only went in for a single play

tfm · 07-23-2011, 02:13 PM

CRASH

6 won it
8 menaced on the turn and collapsed

I have a theory: Josie Carroll is really Catherine Day-Phillips with BETTER stock.

tfm · 07-23-2011, 02:39 PM

WO R4:

figures to be quite a bit of speed in this race, and should set up for a closer/horse that can get 9F

#5, Happy Klapper: 2nd off the layoff and should be running late

win @ >= 5:1

tfm · 07-23-2011, 02:48 PM

got to 5:1 but during the running of the race -- so no bet

this race pretty much captures what's happening on the turf at pretty much all the racetracks I play: SPEED IS NOT COMING back.

Plenty of speed in this race. Maybe the 3, the winner, was fastest of all BUT
she ran a 45 and change HALF, 109 and change for 6F --- how does this horse hang on going 9F?

Hard turf courses

tfm · 07-23-2011, 03:01 PM

SAR R5:

one of a very few playable races today @ SAR

#4, Dynafortwo: nice against the grain effort last out. My top pick but if this course is playing towards speed, might not get the best trip. Getting more money than I'd want

#3, Ordained: should be the pacesetter and will be dangerous on this course -- especially cutting back from 9F

#8, Self Control: trouble trip going 7F last out -- the favorite --stretching out

EDIT:

the 9 unseated the rider and ran off with 1 min to post and was scratched

tfm · 07-23-2011, 03:15 PM

What a skunking. Had a nice win bet on the 4 but I also had a 4/3 exacta, that was paying $66. I looked HOME late stretch until the IMPOSSIBLE 6 came out of no where and got the 3 at the wire. And the 8 chugged along for 4th.

Saratoga - Race 5
# Win Place Show
4 $11.80 $6.30 $4.70
6 . $32.40 $13.40
3 . . $4.50

That's the way it goes.

tfm · 07-23-2011, 04:17 PM

WO R7:

#10, Stunning in Red: like this one off the cutback. Best of those coming out of this race.

the others are:
#6, Gentle Angel -- probably hard pressed to get 6F
#7, Ground Swell -- nice closing effort last out
#9, Conjob -- coming out of the same race as the 10 but Contreras is up and this is a must use.

10 OVER 6,7,9

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07-23-2011, 01:24 PM	#1
tfm Former member Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1,136	Live -- 7/23 CRC R3: bad bunch -- most haven't routed no value/high risk #7, Mountain Chapel, is the best of the bunch exacta: 7 / 2, 10

07-23-2011, 01:28 PM	#2
tfm Former member Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1,136	2 won it for fun @ 7:5 --- sitting a nice stalking trip when horses that previously have gone 5.5F (twice) and 6.5F win 1st time 2 turn racing, beating horses that have previously routed, I ALWAYS lose.

07-23-2011, 01:56 PM	#3
tfm Former member Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1,136	It's Saturday, I typically play FOUR tracks during the day, and I'm expecting some good racing. What I get instead is: 1) a turf speed bias @ SAR -- carrying over from yesterday and expected for the meet 2) canceled card @ DEL 3) off the turf @ CRC 4) TWO 2 year old races in a row @ WO way to go

07-23-2011, 02:06 PM	#4
tfm Former member Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1,136	WO R3: 2 year old maiden race minimal bet #8, Silver Silhouette -- in today after debuting in a stakes race -- Contreras stays up -- need I say more #6, Youcan'tcatchme -- best of the rest of those having run previously -- chased, holding 2nd, around the track going 5F 1st out; stretches to 6F today --- not exactly an ideal angle. exacta: 8 OVER 6 if one of the 1sters breaks this up, at least I only went in for a single play

07-23-2011, 02:13 PM	#5
tfm Former member Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1,136	CRASH 6 won it 8 menaced on the turn and collapsed I have a theory: Josie Carroll is really Catherine Day-Phillips with BETTER stock.

07-23-2011, 02:39 PM	#6
tfm Former member Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1,136	WO R4: figures to be quite a bit of speed in this race, and should set up for a closer/horse that can get 9F #5, Happy Klapper: 2nd off the layoff and should be running late win @ >= 5:1

07-23-2011, 02:48 PM	#7
tfm Former member Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1,136	got to 5:1 but during the running of the race -- so no bet this race pretty much captures what's happening on the turf at pretty much all the racetracks I play: SPEED IS NOT COMING back. Plenty of speed in this race. Maybe the 3, the winner, was fastest of all BUT she ran a 45 and change HALF, 109 and change for 6F --- how does this horse hang on going 9F? Hard turf courses

07-23-2011, 03:01 PM	#8
tfm Former member Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1,136	SAR R5: one of a very few playable races today @ SAR #4, Dynafortwo: nice against the grain effort last out. My top pick but if this course is playing towards speed, might not get the best trip. Getting more money than I'd want #3, Ordained: should be the pacesetter and will be dangerous on this course -- especially cutting back from 9F #8, Self Control: trouble trip going 7F last out -- the favorite --stretching out EDIT: the 9 unseated the rider and ran off with 1 min to post and was scratched Last edited by tfm; 07-23-2011 at 03:03 PM.

07-23-2011, 03:15 PM	#9
tfm Former member Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1,136	What a skunking. Had a nice win bet on the 4 but I also had a 4/3 exacta, that was paying $66. I looked HOME late stretch until the IMPOSSIBLE 6 came out of no where and got the 3 at the wire. And the 8 chugged along for 4th. Saratoga - Race 5 # Win Place Show 4 $11.80 $6.30 $4.70 6 . $32.40 $13.40 3 . . $4.50 That's the way it goes.

07-23-2011, 04:17 PM	#10
tfm Former member Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1,136	WO R7: #10, Stunning in Red: like this one off the cutback. Best of those coming out of this race. the others are: #6, Gentle Angel -- probably hard pressed to get 6F #7, Ground Swell -- nice closing effort last out #9, Conjob -- coming out of the same race as the 10 but Contreras is up and this is a must use. 10 OVER 6,7,9