Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...)
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 11-17-2018, 07:49 PM   #1
Lt1
Grade 1
 
Lt1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,034
Parx r9 11-17

RDSS came thru again today at Parx r9 a 125 clm race3+f n3l. MY contenders were 1-2-3-6-7. I used line 1 for all the horses. On the bl/bl screen the tiers ranks were as follows BLSCORE BL ODDS VDC CSR
#1 23.5 1 1 2
#2 21.5 1.6 1 1
#3 19.3 2.0 3 3
#7 18.0 2.5 4 2
Secondary
#6 9.0 6.0 5 4
The RX Screen tier ranks were VDC CSR PL BPP ML LIVE
#3 3 3 3 3 6-1 3-1
#7 4 2 4 2 4.5 6.1
#1 1 2 5 5 5-1 9-1
#2 1 1 1 4 2.5 2.5
Secondary
#6 5 4 2 1 3.5 2-1

With 2 mins to post I made the following bets
completed 60-1ad-70092 parx r9 $2w/p 1-3 bet $8 ret $33.80 +25.80
completed 194a8-4ff70 parx r9 $2ex box 1-2-3 bet $12 ret $102.20+90.20

The result were as follows
#1 $20.80-$8.40-$5.00
#3 - $4.60 $3.60
#7 - - $4.40
$2ex 1-3 $102.20
.50 tri 1-3-7$173.75
10cent super 1-3-7-5 $1248.01
$2dd 1-1 $36.80
$p3 8-1-1 $345.20

For my contender selection I take the top 5 ranked PL and BPP horses. I also use Tom Brohamers' up close at the stretch call and William Scotts' form factors and Bill Quirins' failure definitions to move horses up or down the tier levels when warranted.

The program does the rest. No more worrying about what adjustment to make like we had to do with the older programs. It's all done for us.
Tim
__________________
Trust but verify

Last edited by Lt1; 11-17-2018 at 07:54 PM.
Lt1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-17-2018, 09:26 PM   #2
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
Nice

Nice work Tim

Good days score, Good to see things are clicking,,
Keep it up

Love Peace
Bill
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-18-2018, 05:55 AM   #3
Lt1
Grade 1
 
Lt1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,034
Thanks Bill. You know us old farts got to keep up with the new jacks lol.
Tim
__________________
Trust but verify
Lt1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-18-2018, 09:59 AM   #4
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
Very nice score Tim, thanks for sharing. Keep it rolling and I think your the President of that Park Bank.





















Mitch44
Mitch44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-18-2018, 11:51 AM   #5
Lt1
Grade 1
 
Lt1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,034
Thanks Mitch. Just trying to keep up with that monkey of yours lol.
Tim
__________________
Trust but verify
Lt1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-30-2018, 06:48 PM   #6
RichieP
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
Tim,
If I had your good looks and money I'd be smiling all the time too man! Karen and I hope you are doing great

P.S. - Nice hit!
__________________
"Grampy I'm talking to you!"
RichieP is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-30-2018, 08:20 PM   #7
Lt1
Grade 1
 
Lt1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,034
Thanks Richie. I don't know about looks but I sure would't mind having that monkey. Things are still the same with me as when we last talked at the Desmond. Hope you and Karen are doing well. You guys are in my prayers
Tim
__________________
Trust but verify
Lt1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-02-2019, 12:39 PM   #8
mick
Abiding Student
 
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 711
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lt1 View Post
RDSS came thru again today at Parx r9 a 125 clm race3+f n3l. MY contenders were 1-2-3-6-7. I used line 1 for all the horses. On the bl/bl screen the tiers ranks were as follows BLSCORE BL ODDS VDC CSR
#1 23.5 1 1 2
#2 21.5 1.6 1 1
#3 19.3 2.0 3 3
#7 18.0 2.5 4 2
Secondary
#6 9.0 6.0 5 4
The RX Screen tier ranks were VDC CSR PL BPP ML LIVE
#3 3 3 3 3 6-1 3-1
#7 4 2 4 2 4.5 6.1
#1 1 2 5 5 5-1 9-1
#2 1 1 1 4 2.5 2.5
Secondary
#6 5 4 2 1 3.5 2-1

With 2 mins to post I made the following bets
completed 60-1ad-70092 parx r9 $2w/p 1-3 bet $8 ret $33.80 +25.80
completed 194a8-4ff70 parx r9 $2ex box 1-2-3 bet $12 ret $102.20+90.20

The result were as follows
#1 $20.80-$8.40-$5.00
#3 - $4.60 $3.60
#7 - - $4.40
$2ex 1-3 $102.20
.50 tri 1-3-7$173.75
10cent super 1-3-7-5 $1248.01
$2dd 1-1 $36.80
$p3 8-1-1 $345.20

For my contender selection I take the top 5 ranked PL and BPP horses. I also use Tom Brohamers' up close at the stretch call and William Scotts' form factors and Bill Quirins' failure definitions to move horses up or down the tier levels when warranted.

The program does the rest. No more worrying about what adjustment to make like we had to do with the older programs. It's all done for us.
Tim
I've had this post bookmarked for several weeks and have re-read it numerous times. I suspect it flew under the radar and many readers didn't appreciate what Lt. Tim was giving us. But this is how a winning horseplayer does it. I've had the pleasure and the privilege of sitting beside him in his living room, watching him do this and then going to Belmont and watching him cash.

His method is a mix of the old and the new. The new is RDSS and the PL and BPP rankings for contender selection. The old is William L. Scott's "form factors," modified by Tom Brohamer's "up close" definitions, and Dr. Bill Quirin's "form failures". Horses with form defects and form failures get demoted.

While Lt. Tim didn't go into details, it's obvious that #6 (post-time favorite) and #7 had form defects and he demoted them, leaving #1, #2, and #3. He bet the two longer odds horses to win and place, then boxed all three in an exacta. And presto! His $20 bet returned $135.

Lt. Tim has done this so many times, he can rip through a card in no time. For those of us who don't have Scott's form factors memorized, it's more arduous. (Sorry, no free lunch.) The more you do it, however, the easier it gets, just like most things.
__________________
mick

Illustrated Glossary
mick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-02-2019, 07:55 PM   #9
AbqVic
stretch run
 
AbqVic's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: Los Lunas, NM
Posts: 28
Yes, very informative thread. Thank you Tim, and Mick for resurrecting it.

I tried searching the site for the guidelines: "form factors," "up close", and "form failures." No luck, are there any references?

If not, what would the book titles be?

Thanks for any help,
Vic
AbqVic is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-03-2019, 04:19 AM   #10
mick
Abiding Student
 
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 711
Hi, Vic.

William L. Scott's book is "How Will Your Horse Run Today?" and Dr. Bill Quirin's book is "Winning at the Races." The Tom Brohamer material is here on P&C at http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11313

I've written a summary of Scott's book which I'll post for you when I get back to my home computer tomorrow.
__________________
mick

Illustrated Glossary
mick is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Back Home At Parx Lt1 Selections 2 10-29-2018 12:07 PM
Bill V. Recovery Race Parx race 7 Saturday 12/2 Bill V. Races of Interest 24 12-03-2017 10:06 AM
Parx and those 1m70yds routes mick Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) 13 03-01-2017 02:51 PM
Parx News Bill V. General Discussion 2 01-07-2014 01:30 AM
Why Parx Bill V. General Discussion 6 11-04-2013 02:06 PM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:45 AM.