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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race' |
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10-03-2013, 06:56 PM | #11 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 318
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Mountaineer is a very unique track. I believe at one time it was a bull ring but was expanded to a mile. Here is the track layout:
This is possibly one reason these races don't transfer well to other tracks. |
10-03-2013, 07:01 PM | #12 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Wow
Thanks Mark
Yes besides the very wide turn I see the start/finish line is not as close to the first turn as I thought . I wonder if horse running at MNR for the first time wonder why they are getting so tired on the turn Parx is a more conventional mile oval 974 feet from last turn to finish. To first Turn, 313 feet. Bill |
10-03-2013, 07:35 PM | #13 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 318
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Bill,
Have you ever gone out to Pomona for the County Fair and watched the races? That is a true Bull Ring. The radius of the turns is so short that it places an absolute premium on early speed. Jockeys like Flores and Martin Pedroza would have a field trip there. (A lot of the top riders took the meet off). The centrifigal force in those turns is minimal down low on the rail but if you were more than 2 horses wide you could forget it. Sore legged horses will quit running as the pressure on their knees and suspensory while trying to take that turn at speed would stop them. You have that same condition in the Clubhouse turn at MNR. No one ever wants to get hung wide in either turn but a horse is virtually eliminated if wide on MNR's first turn in route races. So FTL's comments concerning this race are magnified. Hopefully, this helps explain some of the vagarities of that track. |
10-03-2013, 07:50 PM | #14 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
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If RDSS users want to see this kind of track related information, check the link on the RDSS Desktop:
It takes you to: http://www1.drf.com/entries/entries_info.html And, Pomona = Fairplex (http://www1.drf.com/trackinfo/fairplex_park.html) Ted
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ |
10-03-2013, 08:32 PM | #15 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Cleveland, Ohio
Posts: 624
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Thanks Ted - that never caught my eye.
Quote:
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Terry |
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10-03-2013, 08:46 PM | #16 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Ted and Mark
Thanks for the different track information
Good Skill Bill |
03-08-2016, 09:39 AM | #17 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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One Of My Favorite Spot Plays
This is one of my favorite spot plays and I look for it all the time
To review I quote FTL Quote:
a one mile route the favorite is # 8 -- The outside post and its an Early runner. I blocked out my TS bet but lets say it was over normal , Here is my work up Step 1 Run each horse's last pace line , take note of the top 5 TPR. Top 5 TPR Line 1 5 8 7 6 1 Step 2 Find The Fulcrum = find the best EPR of a horse from the last line that is within 5 bl at the 2nd call and final time Fulcrum 80 Step 3 Mark the running styles Running styles Horse 1 EP Line 1 Horse 2 Presser 1 Horse 3 Sus Line 1 Horse 4 EP line 1 sprinter Horse 5 Sus line 1 Horse 6 Early Line 1 Horse 7 Press line 1 Horse 8 Early line 1 Step 4 Who are the best Earlys The 8 has the best EPR 90 Early BUT ITS OUTSIDE !!! Now will the 8 with a low 77 LPR be able to hold on . Step 5 Rate the Early , then the Pressers , Then the Substantiated The top TPR horses are 8 7 and 5 Step 6 Check the VDC readout Top 3 VDC 7 6 (1-8 ) My bets 7-5 Here is a new improved TPR screen, with the VDC rankings in percentage from the best I will post the pps next Last edited by Bill V.; 03-08-2016 at 10:07 AM. |
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03-08-2016, 09:42 AM | #18 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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pps
horses
Last edited by Bill V.; 03-08-2016 at 09:52 AM. |
03-08-2016, 09:50 AM | #19 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Rest
5 6 7 8
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03-08-2016, 10:01 AM | #20 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Results
The Best Early #8 on the outside did not win. The 7 and 6 with good LPS and VDC ran well
Here is the chart |
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