TRACK PROFILE for PHA

[For The Lead]

I started posting these TRACK PROFILES in response to other posters comments on how PHA has been playing since they returned on 08.30.10 from their brief vacation. It seems that they are having some difficulty with PHA since the return. You can see the first two TRACK PROFILES at this link.
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7133

Attached to this post is the TRACK PROFILE for 6 furlongs at PHA. As with the 5.5 furlong profile, this contains ALL the 6 furlong races, 33 of them in total. I purposely did NOT break these down by any special category as I thought the reader should see the profile as it happened and they can make their own determination as to how they would like to see it.
I will, however, lend some insight to what you are looking at.
In the end, my suggestion, to everyone, is to keep this type of TRACK PROFILE for any track you are playing. The information comes directly from the results charts and it doesn't take a lot of your time to record each day.

If you average the number of entries (ENT) and first call position (call1_pos) in the profile, you will see that the average number of entries is a little over 8. The average call1_pos is 3.5. Ok, so you can see right away that the winners come from the top half of the field, on average. Now, as I said in a prior post, let's see how many of these winners were on the lead at the first call. The answer? ONLY 5. This does not bode well for the early runners if that is what you are looking for. IN FACT, 3 of these came in one day, 09.18.10. There were six, 6furlong races that day. If we take those 6 races out of the equation, it leaves 27 6 furlong races, of which, only 2 winners had the lead at the first call. Take any like kind of races and put them together. What do you see?
My suggestion is that you take this TRACK PROFILE and keep adding to it. Work with it. Take the races for females and put them together. What do you see? Take the races for males and put them together. What do you see?

You might wonder why I look at the first call and place importance on it. Well, as Jim Bradshaw said,"the race starts when the gates open", so when looking at the winners races, I guess the first call is a good indication as to how the race ran.

Good luck and there is more to come.

[SilentRun]

Thanks again for providing this info. I planned to start myself with 6f.
You saved me time.
I now realize that my own track profile does not show a true picture.
I can still use it as a subset to the track profile but not in place of it.

Ernie

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by SilentRun

Thanks again for providing this info. I planned to start myself with 6f.
You saved me time.
I now realize that my own track profile does not show a true picture.
I can still use it as a subset to the track profile but not in place of it.

Ernie

Thanks. I'm glad I could help and save you some time.

Just because of our previous communications, I'm going to suggest that you not be too hard on yourself.
What you have been using, and rightfully so, is a "decision model" not a TRACK PROFILE.
One is a record of the winners races (TRACK PROFILE), while the other (DECISION MODEL) is a record of the information from RDSS (or other software) which is based on your line selection and the various readouts from the software. BOTH are appropriate for use.

Based on what I have seen in your posts, it seems you work hard at what you are trying to accomplish. I'm sure you're going to be fine.

[For The Lead]

Here is the TRACK PROFILE for PHA at 8 furlongs.
As with the other TRACK PROFILES I have posted, I have included everything into one file. One exception here. I DID NOT put the turf races in here. There are just the dirt races.

Again, the reason I included everything in one file is so the reader can take these TRACK PROFILES, add to them and split them up as they see fit. Maybe separate the males and females, perhaps separate maidens from claimers, whatever you want to do that will close in on some type of bias, if it exists.
Remember that there are only 25 races here, and although that may seem like a lot of races, it isn't. Keep adding to the profile and then start splitting them up or, if you like, split them up right now and add to each one appropriately as they happen. It's all up to the user.

If you look at the profile as it is right now, you will see that early horses are not winning at 8f on the dirt. (I suppose that I should mention that my opinion of the "early" horse is the horse with the lead at the first call, not the second call. In an 8f race, the second call comes at the point where the race is 75% over. That doesn't sound "EARLY" to me. It's like saying the football team with the lead after the 3rd quarter has the early lead.) Anyway, the fact is, you can see that only 2 of these 25 winners had the lead at the first call. Only another 3 were 2nd at the first call. However, there were 14 winners that were either 1st or second at the second call.

Now let's take a look at the average number of entries versus the first call so we can see where our horse needs to be early in the race.
The average number of entries is 7.72 and the average position at the first call is 4.44. Now couple this with the fact that 14 of 25 winners were 1st or 2nd at the second call and you have a good idea of what a winner looks like, a mid pack runner that has a good second fraction move to be in contention or in the lead at the second call.
Just remember, averages are just that, averages. Whether it is TRACK PROFILES or DECISION MODELS, they work best when you can find a solid group that does the same thing the large majority of the time. In other words, you want to find something you can count on rather than playing averages and hoping for the best, even though playing averages and hoping for the best is better than "nothing".

[mikesal57]

thxs FTL for the start of this...

I found post by Ted that he devised a master template for modeling
and a video of exporting RDSS by Richie
for you guys that want to go the extra distance in doing this..
I know this thread was about "profiling" but this is for the next step on "modeling"

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthr...ighlight=model

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthr...ghlight=export

as FTL suggested you should add extra columns at the end for the exact distance, class, condition and sex...you'd be surprised that there are differences

mike