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Old 05-04-2012, 08:50 PM   #1
Mrbill
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Kentucky Derby

I'll be the first here......I'm liking El Padrino. If you look at his past performances, he tied a track record at GP, broke a track record at FG, then bounced in the Florida derby. I'm hoping he bounces back in the derby...I'll be paying him to win and an exacta boxes with him and Bodemeister, Daddy Nose Best, and Went the Day Well.

I'm throwing out Union Rags....his figures haven't improved from last year...could be a mistake, but you have to take a stand somewhere.

I love derby day, huge pools and the chance for some major scores.

Good luck to all and I'm hoping everyone makes some kind of score!

Mr Bill
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Old 05-05-2012, 08:50 AM   #2
pktruckdriver
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I will make 6 horses my picks if the track becomes muddy

3 / 4 / 6 / 11 / 15 / 16


Without mud, then I am more confused, but may look to the following...

Alpha
Gemologist
El Padrino
Bodemiester
Dullahan
Take Charge Indy
I'll have another
Went the day well

there you have it, as you can see I have no Idea who will win this race

Dullahan /Bodemiester would be my keys
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Old 05-05-2012, 10:28 AM   #3
Dap Daddi
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I am going to take a chance with a big win bet on Alpha. He reminds me of Manarchos who ran 2nd in the Wood and won the Kentucky Derby at a healthy price. His numbers per RDSS is in the top 3 of contenders.
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Old 05-05-2012, 11:19 AM   #4
Ted Craven
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Given the strong collection of Early horses here (Hansen, Trinniberg, Bodemeister, Gemologist), yet no dominance by any of them, I'd have to make this a race favouring Other Than Earlies, though I would not put it past the maturing Bode or the superconsistent Gemologist (though I'd like to see higher class race wins) to finish somewhere in my superfecta.

So, my top Other Than Early, Late energy, VDC horses are:

Alpha
Dullahan
Union Rags

in likely descending order of post-time odds.

Name:  KY derby 2012.png
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I thought the race was going to be inscrutable (as I usually do going into it ) but it seemed to shake out like it always does using a few reliable guidelines:

1. Use Win or very close 2nd finish in G1 or G2 races, this year, the longer the better
2. Emphacize Late energy (L/ep, LPR, TS+F3) but not at the expense of Total Energy
3. Identify if the Earlies with any of the above are too disadvantaged by a surplus of other early competitors.

4. Get a price.

Alpha and Dullahan may offer all of the above plus a good price.

Good luck to all!

Ted
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Old 05-05-2012, 12:25 PM   #5
mikesal57
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6-11-14 for me

good luck
all

mike
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Old 05-05-2012, 02:28 PM   #6
Mr.Pagine
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Tough to call....

I really think Union Rags has a monster race today - however, I will take 4, 6, 8, 10, 11, 15, 19.

Happy Punting

JD
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Old 05-05-2012, 02:40 PM   #7
raceman5
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Derby

4-6-9-14

Good Luck All
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Old 05-05-2012, 02:52 PM   #8
clore1030
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr.Pagine View Post
I really think Union Rags has a monster race today - however, I will take 4, 6, 8, 10, 11, 15, 19.

Happy Punting

JD
For some reason, I've always preferred to handicap the Derby with the DRF past performances. "Union Rags" just keeps jumping off the page to me.

I'll probably put a wager on him and also "Went The Day Well" as a live longshot.
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Old 05-05-2012, 03:24 PM   #9
Neil S.
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Dullahan
Hansen
Creative Cause
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Old 05-05-2012, 06:03 PM   #10
buzzm24
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Win bets on Dullahan & Alpha

Will use them with Union Rags, Creative Cause & Hansen in the exotics
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