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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 02-21-2017, 12:32 PM   #21
Tim Y
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My observation was not off topic but was a warning to not overly depend on POSITION when it is FRACTIONAL VELOCITY that we are interested in.

This notion was IN the Follow Up way back and was adopted long ago, then forgotten but recently re-born after observing many a long price winner with the ONLY common characteristic was exiting the fastest paced races EVEN IF they had been beaten >7 lenghts.

We are LOOKING at fractional velocities NOT the relative position of said horse to others, but said horse to the PACE OF THE RACE>
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Old 02-21-2017, 01:14 PM   #22
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My observation was not off topic but was a warning to not overly depend on POSITION when it is FRACTIONAL VELOCITY that we are interested in.
And fractional velocity is trumped by running style. A late runner who is last in a 6 horse field with a slow or fast pace or last in a 12 horse field with slow or fast pace is going to find itself last or close to it in its today's race barring any equipment, medication changes or CHAOS. They might only be 4 to 5 lengths off the leader in its last race but they are going to run at the back of the pack even if today's pace is slower than its preceding race.

Ray
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Old 02-21-2017, 01:35 PM   #23
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And fractional velocity is trumped by running style.
an observation I never noted. FRACTIONAL velocity is velocity run by SAID horse and has nothing to do with the OTHER horses in the race. There are many positional ONLY horses, but they may make up 20% of animals AT BEST. The overall truth lies somewhere in between velocity and position and one must recognize the differences.

I see EARLIES running back many lenghts almost every day. THEY run early no matter what beaten lengths are next to their name. Matter of fact the earlier they run against the relative same pace of race is a sign (no matter how well they do) they are going off form.....usually see decreasing total energy, rising e/l and rising % median. THEIR running that way is all about THAT horse and has NOTHING to do with the other animals in the contest.

War Emblem ran LATE on the lead in his Illinois Derby and these are just a few I can recall right off the top of my head as there are MANY MANY more. Many front running routers run sustained/presser:Affirmed, Chrome etc. When you MODEL what wins at each distance what is the best number? % median: energy expended to the second call...pure velocity I have seen wire jobs that were early, e/p, P, S/P and in the above case LATE.......Energy distribution was the key to understanding them.

Of the two, fractional velocity over powers position upon which VELOCITY is based.

POSITION is completely dependent upon PACE of RACE velocity..An outclassed horse can run its style up close or far back DEPENDING upon the yardstick common to every race run: THE PACE of the race.
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Last edited by Tim Y; 02-21-2017 at 01:50 PM.
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Old 02-21-2017, 06:16 PM   #24
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Just in case people forgot what the original topic was


Bill,

Can you do a refresher on this?

Jeff
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Old 02-21-2017, 07:28 PM   #25
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I know

Jeff I will be glad to. Unfortunately Since Ted allowed Tim Y back in
we have to suffer,
He will just be a P.I.T.A. He will just hijack the post again.


He must not have enough self confidence to make his own post
so he has to hijack every one else's post.


I am trying to maneuver his stuff to appropriate places. He has infested pace and cap. It is beginning to be a chore, Something that I really don't have time for.

When Ted remedies this issue I will gladly help you and as many other as I can.

Bill
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Old 02-21-2017, 07:37 PM   #26
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Hang in there Bill. I for one enjoy following your threads and like seeing how others approach using the Methodology. One never knows when a nugget maybe uncovered when we exchange ideas.
Tim G
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Old 02-21-2017, 09:36 PM   #27
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This Topic is closed.

If anyone wants to start a NEW Topic on any ONE of the ideas expressed in this Thread, go ahead. But please keep it to ONE topic.

Please resist the urge to wander all over the map in discussions, despite that many ideas are tangential to each other. Otherwise, in future, how will someone know what's found in the body of a discussion that is titled, starts off about, about usable pacelines (X and O markups).

Ted
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