RDSS Wagering Suggestions

[stugots119]

Hi everyone,

I am new to the RDSS software and wanted to get some wagering suggestions. Example, yesterday I did Gulfstream Park and one race I had an 8-1 on top with 21.0 BL and next horses were (5-1) 15.5 BL , (3-1) 15.0 BL , and (15-1) 14.3 BL, so I bet the 8-1 top horse for WPS and boxed all four for exacta and trifecta. My 8-1 got second but I missed the exacta and trifecta. Am I wagering too much or should i just be wagering WPS on the top horse and maybe play pick 3's instead of the exacta/trifecta? Thank you for all your help.


John

[Bill V.]

Just going by what you told us , A top horse at 8/1 could be bet wps.
The fact that it tops off the BLBL with 21. 0 suggest room for improvement,
Anything near 22.5 or over and the horse probably has peaked with odds of 8/1
If a low odds horse has a rating of over 22.5 this horse also is coming from a very good pace line , so you have to hope it regresses,
The other horses in your mix are all good odds,
I MIGHT have boxed the top 3 for the exact, but probably then put the top 3 over and under the favorite,
Four the trifecta I would have boxed the top 3 VDC or RX if you have It, with the favorite as the 4th horse .
The favorite comes in the first 4 almost always , almost
Hey if you had hit , you would have made lots of money, but generally I would have the favorite in the mix on the trifecta bet

[mick]

Hi, John.

Welcome to P&C. I can't answer your question but I can direct you to the words of a smart man, Doc Sartin. Look at Follow Up #83, pages 24 et seq. for his betting guidelines. Here's an excerpt:

"Bet in such a way that you're always about even and never have to make up for a lot of previous losses when your Overlay win occurs. This will often mean betting Place horses when the more obvious winners are going to pay very little. It also means learning to pass or making proportional bets so that you still profit from Underlays.

While I'll always have at least two Win bets, I'll often spread another $10 or so in backup bets."

There's nothing wrong with "savers." Place bets have never gotten it done for me and I'm just a mediocre Exacta player, so my savers are chalky Win bets. I think of myself as a two-horse, "hedge" bettor. I'll bet some 2-1 chalk to get a 4-1 or higher second horse. And in a 20-race cycle, my hit rate is usually better than 50%, so if my second horse wins a few times, I'm good. That's how I've learned to do it from experience, but everybody is different.

As our friend Bill V. says, "Good skill!"

[stugots119]

Thanks for the response Bill. What do you mean by the boxing the top 3 VDC or RX? Isn't the BL/BL what I should be looking at? Also, Is there a manual for the rdss software? Thanks

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by stugots119

Thanks for the response Bill. What do you mean by the boxing the top 3 VDC or RX? Isn't the BL/BL what I should be looking at? Also, Is there a manual for the rdss software? Thanks

Hi John, there is an updated RDSS manual created by Mick which is part of the RDSS V2.1 documentation and which I send everyone who signs up for RDSS (regardless of whether they ask to test the RDSS V2.1 version).

Here it is- RDSS Documentation: http://www.rdss2.com/pubs/RDSS2.1.Glossary.pdf

And for those who are helping to test V2.1 (that's you, John!) - here is the RDSS 2.1 Documentation Thread: http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10574



Ted

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by stugots119

Thanks for the response Bill. What do you mean by the boxing the top 3 VDC or RX? Isn't the BL/BL what I should be looking at? Also, Is there a manual for the rdss software? Thanks

People use different 'master readouts' from RDSS, according to their historical preference, or their modeled research, or their Matchup analysis of running Styles and pace analysis, or whether they are using the testing version of the upcoming RDSS (and thus the Rx factors).

BL/BL is a mainstay of the Sartin Methodology - a weighted aggregation of factors. VDC is part BL/BL plus a sophisticated deceleration formula: when you find VDC ranks which are better than the corresponding BLBL rank, you should pay attention. The Rx factors are more high level factors which are composites of other high level factors (e.g. Rx3 includes VDC - which includes BLBL - plus Class, plus Consistency, plus an outside non-correlated Oddsline, plus a Early/Late ability factor).

You can indeed start with BLBL to understand how it ranks horses for the pacelines you choose, and for the horses you decide to retain as Win Contenders (Primary Contenders). You should compare how the Rx ranks these same horses and investigate what are the differences, to get a feel for whether there might be extra info in the Rx to help you.

So when Bill says he might have boxed or top/bottom-wheeled the Top 3 BL, someone else might have said Top 3 VDC, or Top 3 TPR or Top 3 (or 4 Rx). I suggest you give yourself the next month of study to compare the various readouts and how betting various combinations would differ for you.

Ted

[mick]

Ted, looking at my Rx screen documentation, I need to update it. It's only showing the Rx value, not Rx1, Rx2 and Rx3. I did it before the most recent version. Those values are important.

[stugots119]

Thank you

[Ted Craven]

John, in general, I avoid 4 horse Exacta boxes (unless you have managed to eliminate the betting favourite from BOTH Top 2 positions!) A bit cheaper is Top rank over ranks 2,3,4 (Top BL, or VDC or Rx3) or Rank2 over Rank 1,3,4 or even Rank 3 over Ranks 1,2,4 = $3x3=$9 dollars for $1 Exacta. Compared to a $12 4 horse $1 box which eliminates Rank 4 over Rank 1,2,3.

Check out my study of AQU last year with such Exacta combos in the RDSS 2.1 public forum: http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10415

In general, the core philosophy of Dr Sartin's betting strategy is based on just what Mick says: even out the downsides by hedging longer runouts and heart breaking losses-by-a-nose or caused by trouble - by ALSO betting 1 of your other Top horses if the odds allow (depending on what your records say your hit rate is). If you can find ANY weakness in the betting favourite, demote it and bet the best 2 odds of your remaining Top 3 (it might be one of the 66%+ times the favourite loses!).

If there are no apparent defects to the favourite (even after consulting the RDSS Tote Xray 'inside knowledge' tote money flow screen ), then accept that 'maybe' the favourite can win and bet it EQUALLY with your next best and longer odds horse. You are effectively drawing into a 'hand' where you have a chance at a good price (your 2nd horse) while limiting your downside (i.e. maybe break-even if low-odds fave wins). That's a Win-Win scenario.

Some would say: bet one horse to win. Good advice if you hit maybe 25-30% of the time with that horse AND can stand the psychological effect of losing many races in a row when you sometimes 'came so close' and put in so much effort. Many people cannot (I cannot) - so for those (for MOST of us, as Doc Sartin observed early in his career) - take the magic pill to ward off demons of losing by staying closer to even (by betting 2 horses, or by betting Place as well) - then pounce like Mick describes when the opportunities are offered. In those cases, you won't be struggling so often to just get your Bankroll back to even, but rather surging ahead because you always stayed closer to even.

I would recommend not spending more than 2% or so of your whole betting Bankroll on ANY single wager. E.g. $1000 bankroll. 2% = $20. Spend $20 in the Win pools on 2 horses (or Win and Win/Place). Or $20 in Exacta combos, or a Tri, or in that neighbourhood % of Bankroll. Losing 2% of your total Bankroll usually has NO impact on your mental/emotional state. Losing 5% or 10% has a bigger effect. This is just my own guideline, for myself.

Examples are a great way to answer specific questions (see the kinds of thing Jeebs has been posting!). For betting practice, after a race has run and we know the final odds (or better, the 'bet-time odds') - describe how you would or did bet it and ask for alternate advice. Difference race scenarios and different market pricing (the odds offered) result in different opportunities and betting strategies. Why not try putting up a few races in the Selections or Races of Interest Forum - with screenshots of your final Analysis screens - for group wagering discussion.

Keep it coming - welcome to the neighbourhood (don't forget to check out RDSS V2.1 )

Cheers,

Ted

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by mick

Ted, looking at my Rx screen documentation, I need to update it. It's only showing the Rx value, not Rx1, Rx2 and Rx3. I did it before the most recent version. Those values are important.

Mick - as the crime fiction best seller in our group, you are still in charge of documentation (if you want it!) If you are moved to update your document, please do so.

As you know, that document is a moving target for stuff to be added to as it appears and is tested in V2.1. Let me know, and thanks in advance!

Ted