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12-29-2012, 07:55 PM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,151
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Race using Rmath's method
Decided to try a race using Rmath's method,not being a RDSS user I
tried it with Valm and Synergism 3 |
12-29-2012, 07:59 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,151
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I had whittled out some of the non contenders first
Result 5-8-2 5 paid 6.80 5-8 ex 116.00 The 8 which Valm picked 1st on VDC went off 23-1 Just to let you know on the early-late sticks the 5 was lone early ended up winning by 10 Nothing to prove here just had some free time |
12-29-2012, 09:36 PM | #3 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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pace lines
Hi Jeff
Just to fill in some blanks Here are the top 5 CSR and as is almost always the case they also had plus recent races at a comparable distance and class level The top 5 CSR My lines The 5 wins the first two segments but is 4th on blbl |
12-29-2012, 10:54 PM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 695
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Thanks for the workup of the race, Bill..
So let me understand this race..... #5 pays $6 and but in the readout it is ranked no better than 4th B/L Is something amiss....?????? Yes, Shoeless mentioned that he was the lone early and wins by 10 lengths.. My point here is that he should rank in the top two...but at least the #8 was ranked on top,,,,bigger odds... |
12-29-2012, 11:35 PM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,151
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Bill,
If you were using Rmath's method you would not have played the 8 as he was 7th in CSR. Also this is the danger of including all horses and not weeding some out as there was no reason the 9 should be in your contenders Have to say as you showed me once that Val4 is a very compact program and easy to navigate through. |
12-29-2012, 11:41 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,151
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Here is the early\late screen
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12-30-2012, 02:11 AM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
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__________________
"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
12-30-2012, 03:31 AM | #8 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Quote:
Lone Speed I have the 5 ranked 4th on BLBL but the 8 is shaky I used line 3. I do have the excuse in line 1 of its a poor effort but it is its first try at the current TP meet, Line two is from CD and a open 5000 claimer were the horse was outclassed Line 3 is a Plus line but then again it is its best ever race and its over 40 days ( best ever ) and 90 days - (form cycle) old At 23/1 for me it is not a full win bet but a sure place or show or underneath in exacta contender As Jeff shows the Early late graph shows the 5 as a lone Early RDSS shows it controls the first two fractions, Who is going to close on this horse ? Thoromation shows all 5 contenders a Early energy Thoromation also uses a more balanced third fraction in EXDC It shows the 5 as the winner in F1, and competitive on the turn and winning the race Last edited by Bill V.; 12-30-2012 at 03:33 AM. |
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12-30-2012, 08:16 AM | #9 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,151
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Bill,
Thanks for the workup of the race There you go Thoromation had exacta in order Not that it makes much difference but you used all the horses in the beginning and the CSR on the 8 was 7,if you had left out the 9 it would have been 6th. Last edited by shoeless; 12-30-2012 at 08:19 AM. |
12-30-2012, 10:27 AM | #10 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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So
Quote:
use horse 9 than the 8 is CSR 6 not 7 If that is the case since I did not use the 2 is the 8 now 5th on CSR ? So does a top 5 CSR win or a Top 5 useable plus recent pace line win ? |
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