Parx model information

[Bill Lyster]

PARX model observations
Model covers all of November and December 2020 and is being updated for January 2021 races as they happen, given a day or two later (updated thru 1/12/21).

There are 280 races in this study and only 6 horses won from layoffs more than 90 days. Five of the six were in sprints, only one winner with such a long layoff from routes. 175 sprints with 8 wins cutting back from routes <5%; 7 occurred in 6.5 or 7 furlong races. 105 routes with 17 sprint to route winners, with 12 winners stretching out from 7 furlong pacelines.

Overall there were 2.1% winners from horses with over 90 day layoffs and place horses with over 90 day layoffs hit the board only 1.9% of the time.


PL and BPP info for all maidens at all distances
Of the 51 maiden races where I had PL & BPP data saved 38 were top 3 PL and 42 were top 3 BPP, 74% and 82% respectively. This includes 3 of 3 first time starter (FTS) winners. The FTS winners were ranked in the top 2 PL. All first time winners came in sprint races.