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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 01-07-2021, 03:29 PM   #1
Bill Lyster
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Santa anita turf route 12-2019 to current

I decided to look at all the turf route races at Santa Anita from December 2019 thru January 3, 2021. There were 187 races excluding races for 2/29 because I could not find a chart for that day to see the scratches.

I used best of 3 comparable. I noted maidens, first time winners, first time foreign winners, dirt to turf winners, sprint to route on grass winners and all non maiden races of all levels of competition.

Some compelling info:
In 34 8 furlong maiden races where the winner had a route race chosen, 32/34 were top 4 Vdc, 30/34 were top 3 Vdc, 32/34 were top 4 TSF3 and 30 were top 4 TPP.

In 81 8 furlong non maiden races 73/81 were top 4 CSR. One caveat here is to verify that the CSR rank is valid. Sometimes the races used are different distances which may tend to lower the computed rank.

9 furlong races
There were 10 maiden races run at this distance where the line chosen was also a turf route and in 9 of them the winner was top 2 TPR, in 10/10 the winner was top 3 CSR.

28 non maiden races and 24/28 top 4 Vdc, 22/28 top 4 CR+, 22/28 top 4 TPR.

9 furlong races.
All non maiden. 8/9 top three CR+

I noted a non top 5 performance in any category with an X, but you should review a column with an X with an eye towards the other rankings. You will see often that a horse with an X will be very highly ranked in most other categories and I think that usually means the horse was a dominant or top early horse in that field which allowed it to prevail.

If you want a copy either use my regular email address if you already have it or PM me here and I will forward you a copy. You need to send me your email address due to the size of thef ile.
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Old 01-23-2021, 06:14 PM   #2
So Cal Al
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Great information, Bill As an aside, I have finally learned to pass maiden turf races
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Old 01-23-2021, 06:45 PM   #3
Bill Lyster
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Why give up now!!??

Since the start of SA in mdn 8f Turf races there have been 10. One won by a foreign first time starter, 7 were won by the top 2 CR which including the Irish foreigner (old CR on entries page), 8 of 10 top 3 CR; 7/10 were top 2 BPP. The Irish starter got a 1 PL, so if you confined your bets to the top 2 PL and BPP you'd have won 8 of ten races with prices ranging from $3.80 - $12.40. 2/2 at 9F for BPP as well ($6.00 and 5.80)

The sprints are a mess by the way, although the 6.5 F races are a little better looking than the 6f races.

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Old 01-24-2021, 12:05 PM   #4
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Bill, Thanks!

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Old 01-24-2021, 12:51 PM   #5
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Thanks Bill. As for myself I find most mdn turf races are unplayable crap shoots due to limited info available for all entrants. I know you model so can you share if over other meets you have found that there are primary factors such as tt, hid energy ,fw ,fx, etc that tend to dominate these types of races at the tracks you play. Thanks.
Trust but verify
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