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Old 08-31-2009, 11:27 PM   #1
pktruckdriver
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To Model your track or wagers

OKay, I may not be downloading now, but did manage to get 20 races into the Models export from Del Mar for 3 days 28 races, and can not make head or tails from it, as I only put the winner in it and did not get them seperated by distance and surface.

I feel too much info, as all the info is there, for some that may be great, but for me, way too much to comphrend with this mind, sorry.

Now like FTL in this thread
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthr...ghlight=models

I get the value of this Modeling thing, it is necessary, and neds to be done to find the kinks and help point out losing situations and we all need that info if we wish to proceed to that next level, but... yes always a but, do we get this info in a usable model.

FTL had statistic's that showed him ROI, but does that mean he wagered and made that ROI, or is that what he decipher's from his Models, now I'm confused too, let me try to be clearer.

1. Models , what excatly are they ?

a. Information you gathered that shows you who, what ,when and how the previous races ran and should help you predicting future races, yes??

2. Track Models

a. Are these the different track Bias's, PP wins , Route and Sprint , Turf and Dirt/poly pace scenario's, example, ( tracks favoring early speed for Dirt Sprints and turf races, yet favoring late for dirt routes ) and what am I leaving out, please

3. Wager Models

a. To me the most important, to know what wagers you are winning the most and what wagers you are not, this info is priceless, to me the info you need most, as it will tell you where you need to work harder or maybe even ignore, and where to maybe take better advantage, like Bob's CORA wagering strategy, especially if you have this info in front of you.

Is there any other Models I may be forgetting here, there seems to be something , but I can not put my finger on it, maybe you guys or gals have it.


Questions on Track Models

How long must the model be studied , before you start to use the info?

Does not the Track Bias's change daily?

It seems short meets like Ky and DM and Sar are not canidates for track Models ,due to the short time they run, or is this a myth, as Bias's change daily and even thru out the day, is this not true?

Finding Track bias's info is available bt different sources, are any of them usable forms of info, or must one make his own Track Model, I think the latter is more proffessional ,that's to keep your own.

I ask this as I tend to get things mixed up alot and was wondering if using DRF track bias's or the track's own website for it variants and nuances , and be able to trust them well enough, and use them accordingly.

Until one wagers enough time on enough races can one make a wagering Model of his wagers to see where his Money is going, this questions answers itself, but knowing will make wonders for the ROI?

Would you please comment about your important Model making and why and what info do you leave to others to gather for you ???


Thank you
Patrick
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Old 09-01-2009, 09:25 AM   #2
tom
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How long must the model be studied , before you start to use the info?
I start with 2 races. You now have a target range, that you can expand as more races are added.
Does not the Track Bias's change daily?
Your model will tell you that.
It seems short meets like Ky and DM and Sar are not canidates for track Models ,due to the short time they run, or is this a myth, as Bias's change daily and even thru out the day, is this not true?
Again, your model will tell you that. I keep models for Saratoga.

Finding Track bias's info is available bt different sources, are any of them usable forms of info, or must one make his own Track Model, I think the latter is more proffessional ,that's to keep your own.
If you use someone else's numbers, how do you equate to to your numbers? You need to know what to look for in your program, which looks at races differently than others do.
I ask this as I tend to get things mixed up alot and was wondering if using DRF track bias's or the track's own website for it variants and nuances , and be able to trust them well enough, and use them accordingly.
KISS - use your program, focus on a couple of key factors - read Tim's posts on E/L and Total+3F
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Old 09-01-2009, 12:17 PM   #3
Houndog
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Models vs Profiles

Patrick a Model would be a record of your handicapping by whatever readouts you deem important. This would reflect your paceline selection and pinpoint strengths and weaknesses in you game.

Two people could play the same track and the same races and their model could possibly be very different.

A track profile tries to detemine how a particular track may be running by distance and surface. You would get this data from the result charts and plug the appropriate numbers in. A track profile would not differ from person to person if they are profiling the same track and distances.
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Old 09-01-2009, 01:56 PM   #4
BladeRunner
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Track Profile

Very interesting topic! Houndog can you teach me how to make track profile in excel. I always wanted to learn this but I am not very good in excel.
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Old 09-01-2009, 02:28 PM   #5
For The Lead
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pktruckdriver View Post
I feel too much info, as all the info is there, for some that may be great, but for me, way too much to comphrend with this mind, sorry.

Would you please comment about your important Model making and why and what info do you leave to others to gather for you ???
Thank you
Patrick
I think it was in the movie “Platoon” where there was a line that went something like this, “excuses are like a—holes, everybody’s got one.” You are throwing out a question for everyone to answer, who chooses to answer. Therefore, like the line from the movie, what you are going to get is an opinion and “opinions are like a—holes, everybody’s got one.” YOUR problem is, you are going to get several different opinions and I don’t know if that is going to clear things up for you. It may even serve to confuse you further.

Tom and Houndog have given you some nice responses. I will comment on one thing “tom” mentioned and that is the term KISS. Not being sure if you know what that means, it stands for Keep It Simple Stupid! Nothing derogatory intended. I would say that is good advice. To begin with, keep it as simple as possible. As time goes by and you become more familiar with what you are doing, expand on it if you want to.

Let me talk about my post that you commented on. Let’s just start at the beginning. You can’t have the winner of the first race in your model (unless you were just “winging it”) because you had no previous information to look at. After that race, you have the results of ONE RACE ONLY to look at. Do you think that information is solid enough to base your next wager on? I would say “no”, so I would be looking for the results of a few races before I would dive in. What you are looking for is consistency in your model(s). Some piece(s) of information that you feel you can rely on. This is based on YOUR work, nobody else’s. Now, as to the ROI I showed in my post, if I hadn’t started with the very first race in that scenario I posted, NO, I would not have achieved the total ROI shown. I would have picked it up a few races after the start. That may have resulted in a little lower or a little higher ROI, but the concept is still valid.

Let’s take a non-horse racing example. Let’s take baseball. You see that a pitcher is 15-0. You think to yourself, ”boy, I could have won a lot of money on that guy if I had just been betting on him”. This is true, but when he was 0-0 you didn’t know he would be 15-0. So, at what point would you have started betting on him? At 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 5-0,10-0 what? You see, it’s an individual decision at what point you begin to wager. It’s all up to YOU, no one else.

Ok, there are “decision MODELS” and “track PROFILES”. They’re two different things. I’ll start with track profiles. Houndog already gave you the answer as to how to get it. The only thing different about what Houndog told you and what I would tell you, is that I would break these track profiles down by distance, surface, AND males, females and race restrictions. In the case of maidens, I would separate maiden claimers from maiden special weights in place of race restriction. This is an individual choice, in the end YOU have to do it the way YOU feel is best for YOU. At any rate, for the previously mentioned reason, my track profiles may be different from Houndog’s, but if we were doing it the exact same way they would be exactly the same. Why? Because it is NOT based on our individual work, it is based on the how the winner ran its’ race.

“Decision models” are the results of the winner of the race BASE ON YOUR WORK, nobody else’s. Both tom and Houndog already talked about this. After a race you handicapped is over, you record ALL or A FEW (whatever you are comfortable with) of the factors you get from RDSS (if that is what you are using) on a piece of paper (in some orderly fashion) or a spreadsheet, or whatever you want to use and record the factors you are going to keep track of. Now the only suggestion I am going to make at this point, is that you keep your “decision models” the same way you are keeping your “track profiles”.

One last thing to write down or record in whatever way you are going to do it, keep records of all your bets, it is from these records that you will find YOUR OWN ROI. Keep different types of bets separate from each other. In this way, you will learn which types of bets are most profitable for you.

Just remember, most people have their own individual ways of approaching all of this. Read them all, read all that you can from any source of the subject, then make a decision about how YOU are going to make YOURS and run with it. Because one person does things one way and another person does it another way doesn’t mean one is right and the other is wrong. If it works FOR YOU that’s all that matters.

I hope I haven’t mis-stated anything and I wish you the best for your endeavors.
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Old 09-01-2009, 03:04 PM   #6
Bob Cochran
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Patrick

Good advice has been offered. I would like to end by stating:

you must first learn (teach yourself) to eliminate horses who have no chance of finishing first or second. This is accomplished through practice on many races. They may be used for a lower layer in an exotic.

If you have a problem narrowing a race to 5 horses , you should pass the race find another.

Lastly, you must become proficient when picking pacelines.

If you are unable to do this, no money management plan will provide you with
the results you seek.

good luck,

BobC
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Old 09-01-2009, 03:15 PM   #7
Houndog
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Track Profile Worksheet

Here is one sample worksheet in Excel for maintaining a Track Profile. I am not an Excel Expert so others may have better ideas. This is in zip format to make the file size smaller.
Attached Files
File Type: zip Mainprot.zip (27.7 KB, 1138 views)
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Old 09-01-2009, 03:22 PM   #8
Houndog
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Houndog View Post
Here is one sample worksheet in Excel for maintaining a Track Profile. I am not an Excel Expert so others may have better ideas. This is in zip format to make the file size smaller.
I think I was doing something else with ths Spreadsheet. I shouldn't have horse but date.
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Old 09-01-2009, 03:23 PM   #9
Houndog
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Track Profile Worksheet #2

This was is a little more detailed and has a sample in the zip file.
Attached Files
File Type: zip BROMAST.ZIP (58.1 KB, 905 views)
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Old 09-01-2009, 04:27 PM   #10
seattlesnake
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win profile

Patrick

If you clump your winners profile together in 1 batch....it would be very hard to decipher and see and actual an pattern. You have to compare apples to apples...

I would start by seperating by surface & distance and then you will see the parameters that has been winning for you.

Hide the columns that may seem unimportant to you based on the averages below the grid...see example...
Name:  8F turfprofile.jpg
Views: 846
Size:  190.8 KB

It will show you a lot of things....from layoffs, paceline selection, bl/bl, vdc, e/l diff. and % med. which i usually key on.

Hope this helps...please note this is MY win profile at 8f turf..yours will differ based on your paceline selections

Jess
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