Friday Dec 4 at Delta Downs

[Bill Lyster]

There are six stakes races ending with a $750,000 Delta Jackpot - two 7f races, 3 miles races and one at 8.5 furlongs.

I've done some prep work already but have a question for anyone that works the tracks in this part of the country. For instance, how do RP lines translate to the Louisiana circuit? They appear in more than one case to be high, making those runners look extra good. So any info in that regard is appreciated.

Thanks,

[RichieP]

Bill
It is only 1 race and I am doing this 100% from memory (but it IS pretty good):

Stakes race at Ded about a month or so ago. todays distance 6.5 or 7f
Remington 7f race (2 or 3 races back most definitely NOT the last line ok?) with SR of 90 (win line). Other SR from other lines elsewhere were tops around 83-84 or so.

Horse shipped in with good form went off around 7 or 8 to 1 / projected VERY strongly off that RP line (top 2 or 3 Bl/Bl)

Nowhere to be found

** The POSITIONAL running line on the RP 7f race was either:
3-3-2-1 OR
3-3-1-1

The horse was in NO way/shape or form a "Martian horse" Bill

Check tonight's RP horses you are looking at to see if they have run well at ROUTE distances because they are around 2 turns like tonight's sprints will be. If they show power moves in the routes ESPECIALLY from 2c-sc you might have a little more confidence that this horse might be able to handle the Delta bullring ok

That is all I got man!

[Bill Lyster]

Hey Rich;

Appreciate that you dressed up for your response. I'm honored, ya know. For me its mostly flowered shirts and baggy pants here! Thanks for the advice. I'll make a pass through the various races and check out the points that you raise.

One other point that might bear looking at is whether or not any horses have done well at other bull rings. I think one or more entrants tonight have run at Fairplex or similar.

One last oddity is what to do with Calder horses. I think there is one, but at Delmar this summer several apparently slow Calder horses just ran by the locals without any credentials. So my conclusion was that 112 at CRC was about equal to 110 or so at DMR even though the adjust SR's were 5 or more points lower.

Good luck tonight,

Bill L

[Bill Lyster]

I like the 1, 2 and 7 in this race, but not in that order.

I think the 1 might be improving but the last race at RP scares me a bit, being from RP. Its 87 SR may not repeat here. But I do notice its first out maiden at Saratoga generated an 84 SR with good turn time, so the 87 might be legit. Its 2nd and 3rd starts at 7f and 8f were in graded company at moderate paces but in both she faded. So some negatives on the two turn ability on this bull ring.

Horse 2 is problem horse for me and had to handle it special. She has not raced against this pace yet, but shows ability against faster paces and perhaps better horses - see 100K stake and the attempt to close against fast Grade 3 sprinters. Her top LPR in sprints is 89.5 in her best race ever (downgraded). She ran 86 and 87 in two routes running close to lead, one on dirt and one on turf, so I think the bull ring won't bother her. Today's pace does not look to tax her early, so I took the internal fractions from LaD 8.3 race and projected a 6.5f time of about 120 (i didn't cut back the fractions and used 6.6 sec all as a home made allowance for the bull ring). This makes her competitive with the 7 who has already won handily at this track at 6.5f in 120.7

..BTW the last screen shot is for the 2 showing consistent LPRs and the fact that if early is not so fast the 178 range ot CPR is reachable with the expected lower pace of this race.

Horse 7 -Won an optional claiming race at this track as a prep - was not entered to be claimed; support for the 84 SR comes from synth race at PID in 84 and 7f CD race 2nd out at 84 - all TT's are competitive.

I like the two and seven on top as primary, with 1 horse lurking. ML is 4-4.5 on all three, but ML favorite is 7/2 so its anybodys guess.

Good luck,

[Bill Lyster]

Lots of early pace pressure here, the best of which is Martin's Bay, but I think Mayhaw sits off the pace a closes. If not Martin's Bay is good enough early IMO.

Problem horse is #1, but maybe not. She has run in several graded races, has 2 seconds in grade 2 and grade 3 races, but just can't win. Could be class of race but this horse is 1/18 with 8 places in routes

Zarb's Ballerina can track pace; horse is 12/13 ITM in routes, but for me not a win candidate.

[Bill Lyster]

I like the 8 on the front end and the 1 from off the pace, both have E/L's to fit this race length.

The 5, Dumar seems to want to run really late, so probably can't win but might find the latter half of the awards if playing exotics. Also 6 and 7 not to win.

[Bill Lyster]

My best idea is to box the tandem horses from the last race here at 7f, but there are two ??? horses.

If you use the last line for the 1, it is top BL/BL, but see that its last two races have almost identical 2fs that are way low. Besides I don't believe the 20 gain in raw SR from 2nd back to last race. Something stinks here.

The 3 is from Calder, done well around two turns, 2nd in a $400K restricted stake, but the numbers don't match the tandem horses. Just a guess, but I think this one gets on the board somewhere.

It looks like there are 3 E's and one EP, so I like the 6, Bella out of the tandem best. The others ... ? looks like they ran wide and backed up.

[Bill Lyster]

Four E's and one EP, so I'm thinking OTE here.

The best EP is Jonesboro, now back racing where it might have a chance. I think best closer is the 3 Que Paso who beat Jonesboro last out handily, though not winning.

The 1, Tend is interesting at a price to fill in 2nd thru 4th.

[Bill Lyster]

I ended up liking the 1, 3, 5. The 1 because it won at Fairplex bullring, then finished 3rd in the Grade 1 Norfolk. Finished the Juvenile turf up the track, was wide, but middle of pack. Don't know where this one belongs, but they seem to be looking.

The 3 Rule is best pure speed horse, won this track and blew away three others in this field (4-8-6, all by 9+ lengths, but close together).

The 5, Litigation, only has a maiden win, but owns 2f and 3f. I'm boxing these 3 and putting $ on best odds horses for win.

The 2 looks alot like the horses that the 3 beat in its last.

I need a nap.

Good Luck to all,

[Bill Lyster]

I forgot to put this in, re: the 1 and its deficient 2F number. It has worst two interior fractions by about 2 whole points, so I don't think it can replicate the 53.88 F3 from its last out in today's race.