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RDSS 2.2 (and previous versions) Racing Decision Support System - The NEW Version 2.2

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Old 04-02-2017, 12:43 PM   #1
mick
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Rx2, Rx3 vs PTO, MLO

These are predominately mid-to-low-level claimers on dirt with a few S Alw, OC and Alw. No turf, mdn, mdn clm, 3YO or stakes. The races are recent, all since the first of the year. They are from PRX, MVR, OP, FG, GP, TAM and LRL. Field size is 6 or greater.

No pacelines were changed. All are RDSS default pacelines.

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Old 04-02-2017, 12:46 PM   #2
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Rx2, Rx3 vs PTO, MLO Routes

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Old 04-04-2017, 12:27 PM   #3
Bill V.
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Hi Mick

I have no idea what these charts are showing
Can you explain ?

Bill
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Old 04-18-2017, 11:37 AM   #4
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Hi, Bill.

I posted a reply several days ago but apparently it’s in the land of the missing, so let me try again.

These charts are an attempt to show “flat bet” performance of Rx2, Rx3, Morning Line Odds and Post Time Odds rankings. I was particularly interested in comparing the two Rx measures with MLO and PTO.

For example, the first column of the first chart indicates that post-time favorites (i.e. PTO # ranked #1) won 68 of 194 dirt sprints in my database for a hit rate of 35%. The average payout was $5.15 with a $1 ROI of 0.90.

Drop down to Rx3 and you’ll see that the top-ranked Rx3 horse in my 194 sprints won 54 races for a hit rate of 28%. But the average payout for those winners was $6.94 with a $1 ROI of 0.97. So, on a flat bet basis, the top-ranked Rx3 horses almost broke even.

The right-hand charts are filtered. I removed races in which the win payouts were less than $4.00 (i.e. odds-on) and greater than $40.00. I wanted to remove the extremes that skew/distort the overall results. I tried several “orthodox” statistical methods for eliminating the outliers, found nothing I thought was satisfactory, and so I devised my own. (My rationale was simple. You don’t need a computer program to bet odds-on favorites and no computer program will help you find many $40+ winners, so I filtered out both groups.)

I think these numbers underscore things we already knew and principally, that the value is in the lower tiers. I apologize if I presented the statistics in a format that was difficult to interpret.
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Old 04-20-2017, 12:06 PM   #5
Bill Lyster
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Mick:

Nice work, but having done so much of the same, I have a couple of questions and observations.

I am always amazed at the accuracy of the ML makers. 90% for sprints is pretty good. A couple of seasons back the ML at GP was over 90% for ALL races, no exclusions! Of course not all ML makers have the same criteria. I always thought it would be interesting to ask the ML makers what factors went into their selections and odds determinations to see if there was an area of evaluation that we had not tapped as yet.

The other intriguing aspect of your research is the ROI of horses ranked 6th or higher. Have you attempted any research to see if there are any common bonds with those higher ranked horses? Also, since the ROI's are so large, is it possible that you only used the winner of the 6+ category and not considered that you would have to bet on all of the horses ranked in the 6+ category.?

Occasionally there are ranking ties. How did you resolve that? If two were tied for 2nd, did the 4th horse get a 3 rank or a 4 rank?

Default pacelines, do I presume correctly that you are using best of last 3 Perceptor or did you use one of the other selection mechanisms?

This info, as presented, dovetails nicely with my research in many ways. Keep up the good work.
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Old 04-20-2017, 04:30 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Lyster View Post
Mick:

Nice work, but having done so much of the same, I have a couple of questions and observations.

I am always amazed at the accuracy of the ML makers. 90% for sprints is pretty good. A couple of seasons back the ML at GP was over 90% for ALL races, no exclusions! Of course not all ML makers have the same criteria. I always thought it would be interesting to ask the ML makers what factors went into their selections and odds determinations to see if there was an area of evaluation that we had not tapped as yet.

The other intriguing aspect of your research is the ROI of horses ranked 6th or higher. Have you attempted any research to see if there are any common bonds with those higher ranked horses? Also, since the ROI's are so large, is it possible that you only used the winner of the 6+ category and not considered that you would have to bet on all of the horses ranked in the 6+ category.?

Occasionally there are ranking ties. How did you resolve that? If two were tied for 2nd, did the 4th horse get a 3 rank or a 4 rank?

Default pacelines, do I presume correctly that you are using best of last 3 Perceptor or did you use one of the other selection mechanisms?

This info, as presented, dovetails nicely with my research in many ways. Keep up the good work.
Bill,

Thank you for your kind words. I have reviewed your research and having a sense of the work involved, I find it humbling. Compared to your efforts, mine are rather feeble. But thank you.

I, too, am amazed at the ML makers. I know they're on the premises and they know what's in the stalls on the backstretch and they have access to the clockers, etc. but still, those are astonishing statistics. In my dreams, I'm that good, but not when I'm awake.

I have not attempted any research specific to those Tier 6+ winners and their hefty payouts, but I have been thinking about it. Wouldn't it be great to have a combination of factors that might tip off a big effort by a high odds horse? Perhaps it isn't possible but I continue to doodle. (An acquaintance Randy Giles wrote a book about doodling "pace pictures." I've doodled those and other things, trying to make mental connections.) It wouldn't have to work that often, would it?

Regarding ties, I can only respond to the values that I manually added, i.e. PTO#, Rx2#, Rx3#. (What Ted's export algorithm created for the winner in Excel is what I copied and pasted into my Template spreadsheet. I didn't dig any deeper with those values.) In your hypothetical, I would have assigned the 4th horse a "4" rank, not a "3". So, it would be 1, T-2, T-2, 4. I've played in a lot of golf tournaments and that's how the prize money was distributed, but is that how you do it? If you're doing it differently, then I need to conform to your method.

Regarding pacelines, yes, they are all Default, Best of Last 3 Perceptor. Occasionally, I would change a line but for purposes of the research, I would switch it back for the export. And in all honesty, I'm not as good as Mr. Default. I've tried picking my own lines but it doesn't improve my hit rate or my ROI. For the present, I'm letting him do it, except when it's obvious that the horse won't repeat it.

Thanks for your encouragement, Bill. I'm still thinking about those 6+ horses.
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Old 04-21-2017, 09:56 AM   #7
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All my research was best of three perceptor and as I became aware of how the machine rated ties, I converted to the 1-T2-T2-4 ranking.

The only problem I had with some of the perceptor lines was when they would use a race with an adjusted speed rating of say 85 from something other than line 1 (young/improving horses given more leeway), where 77 was the previous high from the last 10 races. I just assumed that the track variant from that day was off. In my own handicapping I try to use a line closer to what the horse usually runs.

Your observation on last two being best for older horses and not repeating because of likely form cycle issues (my interpretation of your words) is interesting. I will have to look at that relative to results to see how it stacks up. Nice angle.

Bill
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Old 04-22-2017, 09:21 AM   #8
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Paired Tops

The lifetime "paired tops" for older was a concept that originally came from the Sheets and Thoro-Graph guys. Jim Quinn discusses it in his lastest book, The Complete Handicapper.

I would give you the page number but I'm traveling and away from my books. One of my oldest friends, we met as a high-school sophomores, is getting married for the fourth time.
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Old 04-22-2017, 03:47 PM   #9
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Nice work Mick When it comes to horses 5 &up I also do not use lifetime best races as my paceline. I haven't done any survey but I know based on my capping they rarely repeat for win. I do however keep them in the mix for exotics.
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Old 04-23-2017, 10:51 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mick View Post
The lifetime "paired tops" for older was a concept that originally came from the Sheets and Thoro-Graph guys. Jim Quinn discusses it in his lastest book, The Complete Handicapper.

I would give you the page number but I'm traveling and away from my books. One of my oldest friends, we met as a high-school sophomores, is getting married for the fourth time.
I always enjoy a guy who knows how to throw a good party every couple of years, don't you? I've just had one, a little over thirty years ago.

If you could screen shot the pages of Quinn's book, I'd love to read about it.

I will PM you with my contact info.

Talk to you soon.

bill
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