CD R10 Gr 3 River City

[rdiam]

Lets try something a bit different: a detailed handicap of the feature today at CD:

In reverse order:

7 -- Bemma's Boy: big class jump to graded stakes, jockey switch to Leparoux, third race after layoff, figures to regress after last race win, but has a decent closing kick to use underneath in exotics

10 -- Lascaux: big class jump to graded stakes, jockey switch to Rocco, second race after layoff, figures to regress from last race effort => TOSS

6 -- Space Mountain: jockey switch to Santana, but looks like Sept 29 and Sept 5 race took a lot out of him, likely going off form and regress from last race => TOSS

3-- Blue Sky Cowboy: big jump to graded stakes, negative jockey switch to Doyle, figures to regress from after last race win => TOSS

5 -- My Bariely: big jump in class, figures to regress from last race effort, is a bona fide late runner => if can run anywhere close to last race effort might use underneath

9 -- Admission Office: dropping from G1 stakes, highest average earnings in field, second after layoff should move horse forward from last race => high class horse to use underneath in exotics

2 -- Emmaus: third after layoff, consistent horse in form, can compete at this level, will be closing late => WIN bet at 8-1 or better, use in exotics

1 -- Cullum Road: competitive in graded stakes, 4th race after layoff, jockey switch to Gaffalione => WIN bet at 6-1 or better, use in exotics

8 -- Get Western: can control the early pace, if Hernandez can slow it down enough might have enough to finish => WIN bet at 4-1 or better, use in exotics

4 -- Mr Misunderstood: first after layoff, should win if runs back to last race => WIN bet at 5-2 or better, use in exotics

Good luck

Richard

[Bill V.]

Here is what I come up with

[rdiam]

Nice overlay on the winner: 5/2 ML, goes off 9/2, created an overlay on the vertical exotics (ex, tri, super) as well

Race 10 River City H. - Grade: 3
Off at: 5:43 Race Type: Stakes
Age Restriction: Three Year Old and Upward
Purse: $175,000
Distance: One And One Eighth Miles On The Turf
Track Condition: Good
Winning Time: 1:53.31

Pgm
Horse
Jockey
Win
Place
Show
4
Mr. Misunderstood
Florent Geroux
11.20
6.20
3.00
1
Cullum Road
Tyler Gaffalione

9.00
4.40
9
Admission Office
Jose L. Ortiz


2.20
Also ran:
7 - Bemma's Boy , 10 - Lascaux , 5 - My Bariley , 6 - Space Mountain , 2 - Emmaus (IRE) , 8 - Get Western , 3 - Blue Sky Kowboy
Denotes a Keeneland Sales Graduate

Wager Type
Winning Numbers
Payoff
$0.50 Pick 3
7-5-4 (3 correct)
128.20
$1 Daily Double
5-4
60.30
$2 Exacta
4-1
88.00
$0.10 Superfecta
4-1-9-7
94.57
$0.50 Trifecta
4-1-9
69.30

[Lt1]

Excellent results Richard. Don't you just love it when the public messes up.
Tim

[Mitch44]

Nice analysis Richard.


Mitch44